NNE Winter Thread

[ApacheTrout]

47 minutes ago, Blizzard118 said:

Quick question: Heading up to Stowe today for the long weekend. Just wanted to see if anyone had any idea how the snow depth looks at the notch? From the resort to the top of the notch? Plan on doing some snow shoeing if at all possible. Thanks in advance!!

Have you looked back over the past few days of posts?  There's a wealth of posts by Powderfreak describing conditions at Stowe.

[Blizzard118]

31 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Have you looked back over the past few days of posts?  There's a wealth of posts by Powderfreak describing conditions at Stowe.

Perfect. I just saw that. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Even the piles are a taking beating today. Solid Jan mud season happening right now.

On the plus side, Jan is shaping up to be a great month for me work wise with the lack of stuff to track.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

That 60 swing is impressive.

About the most I've seen in 24 hr.  On 2/2/76 we dropped from 46 at 11 AM to -11 at 8 PM, not bad for 9 hours.  (That storm also brought CAR's pressure down to 957, lowest they've recorded, and drowned about 200 vehicles in downtown BGR.)  Longer than 24 hours, but just 45 days after than monster temp plunge, we had -25 on 3/19 and 50 on the 20th, about 32 hours later.  That happened under sunny skies without strong winds - instant spring.  Fort Kent wx can be quite exciting, especially that year.  In August the remains of Belle dumped about 6" and blew out half the logging-road bridges in N.Maine.

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

We punt January

It may be premature to say that for many locations, but if the forecast in on track, the numbers say that this upcoming stretch actually could be the nail in the coffin with respect hitting an average or above average snowfall season in some valley areas of the Northern Greens.  We’re now into mid-January, and snowfall for the month is 4.4” at our site.  We’ll need to get ~30” of additional snow to even get into the range of average for the month, and if the time period for getting snow is compressed, that would absolutely necessitate a big storm or two to recover January to its mean.  The Northern Greens aren’t a “one storm wonder” type of climate, where you can get almost your season’s worth of snow in a storm or two.  The seasonal snowfall numbers are just too big, so it takes a lot of substantial storms, along with the usual daily doses of snowfall, to catch back up. 

 

The below average December is already in the books, and if January were to come in below average as well, that’s a big hole from which to recover.  Obviously average snowfall for the rest of the season wouldn’t do it, so simply using the mean snowfall numbers, that’s already just a 50% chance of getting back to average by the end.  I just ran the numbers to see using my data, and if January were to come in poorly with respect to snowfall from here on out, you’re basically looking at a 12.5% (1 in 8) chance of recovering to average.

 

I’m not trying to freak out the weenie types or anything, and note that places with lower snowfall averages can recover fairly easily, but I thought it might be interesting for people to see some actual numbers ahead of the typical flood of “canceling the season” type posts that pop up (and then of course get derided because of how “weenie” they are).

 

This doesn’t mean that we can’t have an utterly fantastic second half of winter with tons of snow that people will talk about for generations etc., but if January does perform poorly with respect to snowfall, it will be very hard to catch back up and get to an average season.  Even an amazing ‘06-‘07 type of second half wouldn’t do it (and didn’t quite do it that season either), so folks can have some fun imagining what type of second half would enable such a recovery.

 

So the data say that the course is actually pretty clear around here for those that want it bottom-lined.  There are really just two main outcomes if January comes in with poor snowfall the way it could.  You’re either looking at another below average snowfall season (7 chances out of 8) to tack onto the current string, or an amazing second half of the season (1 chance out of 8) that would exceed the performance of ‘06-‘07.

[eyewall]

21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

We punt January

It may be premature to say that for many locations, but if the forecast in on track, the numbers say that this upcoming stretch actually could be the nail in the coffin with respect hitting an average or above average snowfall season in some valley areas of the Northern Greens.  We’re now into mid-January, and snowfall for the month is 4.4” at our site.  We’ll need to get ~30” of additional snow to even get into the range of average for the month, and if the time period for getting snow is compressed, that would absolutely necessitate a big storm or two to recover January to its mean.  The Northern Greens aren’t a “one storm wonder” type of climate, where you can get almost your season’s worth of snow in a storm or two.  The seasonal snowfall numbers are just too big, so it takes a lot of substantial storms, along with the usual daily doses of snowfall, to catch back up. 

 

The below average December is already in the books, and if January were to come in below average as well, that’s a big hole from which to recover.  Obviously average snowfall for the rest of the season wouldn’t do it, so simply using the mean snowfall numbers, that’s already just a 50% chance of getting back to average by the end.  I just ran the numbers to see using my data, and if January were to come in poorly with respect to snowfall from here on out, you’re basically looking at a 12.5% (1 in 8) chance of recovering to average.

 

I’m not trying to freak out the weenie types or anything, and note that places with lower snowfall averages can recover fairly easily, but I thought it might be interesting for people to see some actual numbers ahead of the typical flood of “canceling the season” type posts that pop up (and then of course get derided because of how “weenie” they are).

 

This doesn’t mean that we can’t have an utterly fantastic second half of winter with tons of snow that people will talk about for generations etc., but if January does perform poorly with respect to snowfall, it will be very hard to catch back up and get to an average season.  Even an amazing ‘06-‘07 type of second half wouldn’t do it (and didn’t quite do it that season either), so folks can have some fun imagining what type of second half would enable such a recovery.

 

So the data say that the course is actually pretty clear around here for those that want it bottom-lined.  There are really just two main outcomes if January comes in with poor snowfall the way it could.  You’re either looking at another below average snowfall season (7 chances out of 8) to tack onto the current string, or an amazing second half of the season (1 chance out of 8) that would exceed the performance of ‘06-‘07.

Yeah we can forget hitting normal snow for the season but I really hope we can at least salvage the second half and avoid complete failure like last year. All I am asking for is one warning level snow even lol. 

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

We punt January

It may be premature to say that for many locations, but if the forecast in on track, the numbers say that this upcoming stretch actually could be the nail in the coffin with respect hitting an average or above average snowfall season in some valley areas of the Northern Greens.  We’re now into mid-January, and snowfall for the month is 4.4” at our site.  We’ll need to get ~30” of additional snow to even get into the range of average for the month, and if the time period for getting snow is compressed, that would absolutely necessitate a big storm or two to recover January to its mean.  The Northern Greens aren’t a “one storm wonder” type of climate, where you can get almost your season’s worth of snow in a storm or two.  The seasonal snowfall numbers are just too big, so it takes a lot of substantial storms, along with the usual daily doses of snowfall, to catch back up. 

 

The below average December is already in the books, and if January were to come in below average as well, that’s a big hole from which to recover.  Obviously average snowfall for the rest of the season wouldn’t do it, so simply using the mean snowfall numbers, that’s already just a 50% chance of getting back to average by the end.  I just ran the numbers to see using my data, and if January were to come in poorly with respect to snowfall from here on out, you’re basically looking at a 12.5% (1 in 8) chance of recovering to average.

 

I’m not trying to freak out the weenie types or anything, and note that places with lower snowfall averages can recover fairly easily, but I thought it might be interesting for people to see some actual numbers ahead of the typical flood of “canceling the season” type posts that pop up (and then of course get derided because of how “weenie” they are).

 

This doesn’t mean that we can’t have an utterly fantastic second half of winter with tons of snow that people will talk about for generations etc., but if January does perform poorly with respect to snowfall, it will be very hard to catch back up and get to an average season.  Even an amazing ‘06-‘07 type of second half wouldn’t do it (and didn’t quite do it that season either), so folks can have some fun imagining what type of second half would enable such a recovery.

 

So the data say that the course is actually pretty clear around here for those that want it bottom-lined.  There are really just two main outcomes if January comes in with poor snowfall the way it could.  You’re either looking at another below average snowfall season (7 chances out of 8) to tack onto the current string, or an amazing second half of the season (1 chance out of 8) that would exceed the performance of ‘06-‘07.

its sad the biggest storm of the year so far was in November...

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah we can forget hitting normal snow for the season but I really hope we can at least salvage the second half and avoid complete failure like last year. All I am asking for is one warning level snow even lol. 

ill take a VD 2007 storm please, 30-40 inches in the southern dacks.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Blizzard118 said:

Perfect. I just saw that. 

I'll check my snow depth at the Stowe side of the Notch closure before leaving today and then again in the morning.  Whatever I find in the morning will be what you'll have this weekend (it ain't going anywhere after that) and it increases from there up to the top of the Notch.

It'll likely be a slick surface for walking but perfect for snowshoes with teeth or crampons.

[tamarack]

You’re either looking at another below average snowfall season (7 chances out of 8) to tack onto the current string, or an amazing second half of the season (1 chance out of 8) that would exceed the performance of ‘06-‘07.

Another Feb-Apr 2007 would be very nice, but I'm not holding my breath.  The 36.1" of April snow at Farmington is more than 50% greater than in any other April going back thru 1893. 

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its sad the biggest storm of the year so far was in November...

December was pretty sweet though.

36" cumulative and 4.35" liquid in town (some rain though).

60" at 1,500ft and 89" at 3,000ft (likely higher above that too).

It snowed at my house measurable in a 17 out of 18 day stretch.  Couple low end warning events among lots of steady light snows. 

December 2016 will be remembered fondly for powder skiers up this way.

 

[powderfreak]

Warm day for the snowmakers to do some digging to find all the hydrants so we can make some snow this weekend to resurface terrain.

[dendrite]

Looks like you guys need to shut'em down based on that pic.

[wxeyeNH]

Hey guys.....  CAD is in full force here in the Newfound Lake/Plymouth area of NH.  At 2pm weather station right on lake is 36F.  Bristol just south of the lake is 38F.  I am 47F being 600 feet higher.  Meanwhile Alex up in Bretton Woods reached a high of 56.7F a bit earlier.  Warm air is streaming overhead.

Seasonal snowfall for me so far is 28".  I have been keeping a rough track of Alex's snowfall with his cam and snowstakes.  He's around 37".   Pretty darn low for the heart of the Whites.  Short term doesn't look good but its only Jan 12th.   One of these years we will have above normal snowfall again.

I'm down to about 3-4" of glacier pack left.  It will be interesting to see if I break into the really warm air before fropa...

Meanwhile to get everyone depressed look at the Mammouth Mtn website.  Click on mountain info for seasonal snowfalls.  Just crazy.  With this current ongoing storm they are reporting 95-148" new.  22" in past 24 hours http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/snow-conditions-and-weather

 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey guys.....  CAD is in full force here in the Newfound Lake/Plymouth area of NH.  At 2pm weather station right on lake is 36F.  Bristol just south of the lake is 38F.  I am 47F being 600 feet higher.  Meanwhile Alex up in Bretton Woods reached a high of 56.7F a bit earlier.  Warm air is streaming overhead.

Seasonal snowfall for me so far is 28".  I have been keeping a rough track of Alex's snowfall with his cam and snowstakes.  He's around 37".   Pretty darn low for the heart of the Whites.  Short term doesn't look good but its only Jan 12th.   One of these years we will have above normal snowfall again.

I'm down to about 3-4" of glacier pack left.  It will be interesting to see if I break into the really warm air before fropa...

Meanwhile to get everyone depressed look at the Mammouth Mtn website.  Click on mountain info for seasonal snowfalls.  Just crazy.  With this current ongoing storm they are reporting 95-148" new.  22" in past 24 hours http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/snow-conditions-and-weather

 

 

Hmm, would have thought Alex had received more than 3ft so far. Maybe if he was doing diligent measurments would be the only true way to know.  I mean I have gotten just about 3ft myself.

[J.Spin]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Seasonal snowfall for me so far is 28".  I have been keeping a rough track of Alex's snowfall with his cam and snowstakes.  He's around 37".   Pretty darn low for the heart of the Whites.  Short term doesn't look good but its only Jan 12th.   One of these years we will have above normal snowfall again.

 

 

That’s very interesting – it only reinforces the confusion with the “#NNE Winter” we keep hearing on the forum though.

[powderfreak]

No way he's only had 37" at 1,500ft.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Just now, powderfreak said:

No way he's only had 37" at 1,500ft.

 

I dont think he tracks his snowfall, but every post he made it seems like he was getting so type of upslope.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I dont think he tracks his snowfall, but every post he made it seems like he was getting so type of upslope.

He also wasn't there most of December when that pattern was cranking I think.

[wxeyeNH]

14 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Hmm, would have thought Alex had received more than 3ft so far. Maybe if he was doing diligent measurments would be the only true way to know.  I mean I have gotten just about 3ft myself.

Backedge....your are totally right.  Jeez my error.  I use an excel spread sheet and when I went to select all I didn't scroll the whole page.   Okay, my corrected totals should be

31" for me and 49" for Alex.  He was on the west coast when the big storm hit on 12/30 and I estimated 9" for him.  Was blowing around so I could have been several inches off.  Thanks for posting or I would not have caught my error....

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Backedge....your are totally right.  Jeez my error.  I use an excel spread sheet and when I went to select all I didn't scroll the whole page.   Okay, my corrected totals should be

31" for me and 49" for Alex.  He was on the west coast when the big storm hit on 12/30 and I estimated 9" for him.  Was blowing around so I could have been several inches off.  Thanks for posting or I would not have caught my error....

That sounds much closer haha.  I'd wager it's still on the low end but not in the "no way" category anymore lol.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey guys.....  CAD is in full force here in the Newfound Lake/Plymouth area of NH.  At 2pm weather station right on lake is 36F.  Bristol just south of the lake is 38F.  I am 47F being 600 feet higher.  Meanwhile Alex up in Bretton Woods reached a high of 56.7F a bit earlier.  Warm air is streaming overhead.

Seasonal snowfall for me so far is 28".  I have been keeping a rough track of Alex's snowfall with his cam and snowstakes.  He's around 37".   Pretty darn low for the heart of the Whites.  Short term doesn't look good but its only Jan 12th.   One of these years we will have above normal snowfall again.

I'm down to about 3-4" of glacier pack left.  It will be interesting to see if I break into the really warm air before fropa...

Meanwhile to get everyone depressed look at the Mammouth Mtn website.  Click on mountain info for seasonal snowfalls.  Just crazy.  With this current ongoing storm they are reporting 95-148" new.  22" in past 24 hours http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/snow-conditions-and-weather

 

 

the weather is certainly depressing. We just wiped a good chunk of our pack in less than 2 days. Took a good few weeks to get it to the point where snowmobile trails were good to ride on. One more good storm and they would have been mint. After next week, I think we'll be almost starting from scratch. Nothing weatherwise surprises me anymore.

[eyewall]

Warm day for the snowmakers to do some digging to find all the hydrants so we can make some snow this weekend to resurface terrain.

That is an awesome shot and the straight line distance between the bare ground and some grass turning green here and that mountainside would blow some people away.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

[wx2fish]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That sounds much closer haha.  I'd wager it's still on the low end but not in the "no way" category anymore lol.

Looks like John up in Pittsburg at similar elevation is at 61" 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 

That is an awesome shot and the straight line distance between the bare ground and some grass turning green here and that mountainside would blow some people away.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

Yeah it really is crazy to think every day I'm working and wandering around in a 2-4 foot natural snowpack on average...then throw in man-made snow and the depths are pretty ridiculous in spots, 5-10 feet....while the flowers are about to bloom in BTV 15 miles away.

Still full coverage here at home though about 4-5".  Very wet and isothermal mush though.

 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

December was pretty sweet though.

36" cumulative and 4.35" liquid in town (some rain though).

It snowed at my house measurable in a 17 out of 18 day stretch.  Couple low end warning events among lots of steady light snows. 

 

Indeed, I recorded very similar numbers coming from my site:  34.2” snow and 4.51” liquid, with snowfall recorded for 17 days in a row and 24 out of the 31 days in the month.  Both the snow and liquid were at ~90% of average, so certainly below the mean, but not grossly so.  Snowpack was continuous starting on the 3^rd of the month, which is a very average starting date.  Coincident with that start, snowpack depth paralleled average values for the first half of the month, but then fell well behind for the remainder of the month, so the overall “grade” takes a hit in that category.  I can’t really give the month a grade of straight C if it comes in below average like that, so I’m guessing C- for a grade?  It’s probably not quite down to D+ because it really was pretty wintry overall.  Maybe the number of days with snowfall could be a quantifiable parameter that keeps the month up at a C- because that certainly factors into how wintry it appears, but I’d also argue that the number of days we had with snowfall wasn’t that unusual for our climate.  I just don’t have those numbers tallied to confirm it.

 

We’re lucky, an average (or even somewhat below average) snowfall/snowpack December is still quite snowy and wintry around here, and what we got was certainly nothing to complain too harshly about.  But, the month also can’t have been that great if it’s even flirting with the D-range for a grade.  I’m sure for many, a C-level or D-level December in the Northern Greens would feel quite “wintry”, but for a realistic grade for a site, it should be based on local climate/microclimate averages, not a regional or national scale.

 

To put some perspective on it, a great December like 2007 delivered twice the snowfall of December 2016 and had a snowpack of three to four times the depth.  The issue on a seasonal level is just that coming in even a little below average in December snowfall doesn’t really give you any cushion to keep up with average if the season stumbles in a later month (if we were by some strange chance to get a month like that).

[Hitman]

9 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

December was pretty sweet though.

36" cumulative and 4.35" liquid in town (some rain though).

It snowed at my house measurable in a 17 out of 18 day stretch.  Couple low end warning events among lots of steady light snows. 

 

Indeed, I recorded very similar numbers coming from my site:  34.2” snow and 4.51” liquid, with snowfall recorded for 17 days in a row and 24 out of the 31 days in the month.  Both the snow and liquid were at ~90% of average, so certainly below the mean, but not grossly so.  Snowpack was continuous starting on the 3^rd of the month, which is a very average starting date.  Coincident with that start, snowpack depth paralleled average values for the first half of the month, but then fell well behind for the remainder of the month, so the overall “grade” takes a hit in that category.  I can’t really give the month a grade of straight C if it comes in below average like that, so I’m guessing C- for a grade?  It’s probably not quite down to D+ because it really was pretty wintry overall.  Maybe the number of days with snowfall could be a quantifiable parameter that keeps the month up at a C- because that certainly factors into how wintry it appears, but I’d also argue that the number of days we had with snowfall wasn’t that unusual for our climate.  I just don’t have those numbers tallied to confirm it.

 

We’re lucky, an average (or even somewhat below average) snowfall/snowpack December is still quite snowy and wintry around here, and what we got was certainly nothing to complain too harshly about.  But, the month also can’t have been that great if it’s even flirting with the D-range for a grade.  I’m sure for many, a C-level or D-level December in the Northern Greens would feel quite “wintry”, but for a realistic grade for a site, it should be based on local climate/microclimate averages, not a regional or national scale.

 

To put some perspective on it, a great December like 2007 delivered twice the snowfall of December 2016 and had a snowpack of three to four times the depth.  The issue on a seasonal level is just that coming in even a little below average in December snowfall doesn’t really give you any cushion to keep up with average if the season stumbles in a later month (if we were by some strange chance to get a month like that).

don't ya think the lack of a thaw deserves some significant credit.  Its one thing to get a certain amount of snow over the course of the month, but whether there's a thaw in there, makes huge difference, both in terms of appearance and usability.

[alex]

Haha so much talk about me! I haven't been measuring that accurately, but I have it just over 50" for the winter. That said, it's based on what's on the ground when I clear every few days and I know that's wildly inaccurate. We had some recent upslope patterns in December - not big storms but 1-3" several times a week. That stuff gets compacted down like there's no tomorrow though. The big question mark is how much we got with the big storm in December. My stake sucks since it's on the deck and for several hours it was reading 0 since the snow was just blowing off the deck. I recorded 12 but the ski resort said 18, so I may have been under a bit - I was out West and it's hard to tell from my webcam. But I'd say 50-60" is probably a good estimate. Some day I'll get better at measuring. It hasn't been terrible in the snowfall department but retention has been awful. When storms go West, we torch. 

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, Hitman said:

don't ya think the lack of a thaw deserves some significant credit.  Its one thing to get a certain amount of snow over the course of the month, but whether there's a thaw in there, makes huge difference, both in terms of appearance and usability.

 

I’d say thaws are already covered in the data – they’re part of the snowpack numbers.  Were it not for the thaws we had this December, the snowpack probably wouldn’t have fallen much behind average.  Low snowpack has to come either from low snowfall (more appropriately low liquid equivalent in frozen precipitation) or loss of snowfall, and I think the snowpack number hits on both of those.

 

I couldn’t give credit to this past December for lack of thaws anyway though, because we definitely had thaws, multiple thaws.  You can see the two most prominent ones in red in the NOHRSC plot of December data from our site below.  Those red spikes correlate with two prominent drops in the snowpack depth (light blue line and light blue squares).  I’m not sure about that drop in snowpack depth around the 9th – 10th of the month – it didn’t get a snow melt rate.  Looking in my notes I don’t see any mention of mixed precipitation, so that could just be settling of fluffy snow over time.

 

 

I still say we’re looking at a C- at best for December at our site and local environs, I just don’t see how I could objectively give it an above average grade.  I think some of the higher elevations could certainly be in line for an average or above average grade for December, but I’d need to see the data.

[alex]

Middle of the night in January and we are roasting. The Mt Washington auto road profile says it all.