NNE Winter Thread

[Lava Rock]

My wife is in st. Thomas for work. Nice shot of cruise ship leaving port

[OceanStWx]

On 1/1/2017 at 5:55 PM, alex said:

Thank you for fighting for us! Gray can be really confusing for the NNH mountains. For instance, our P&C for Tuesday went from 33F with sleet to 36 and rain... Yet the AFD says "

 Development of a secondary low over the mid Atlantic coast will complicate matters further as it rides northeast and intensifies. This should serve to hold the cold air in across the mountains and international border area where we may see largely a snow and sleet event."

That would indicate that either Bretton Woods is not in the mountains, or that once again they are talking about Maine and forgetting that NH is part of their area too. Or that one of the 2 is wrong. 

Can we start some sort of petition lol? 

 

On 1/2/2017 at 7:21 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  I'm going to remotely disable the P&C features on all your electronics!  It's going to be the death of you...lol...They probably work better in flat areas.  Your location in such mountainous terrain probably makes the computer algorithms impossible to calculate accurately.  Maybe OceanWx can explain how they are created.  

So for starters, our forecast is created using grids, which are 2.5 km by 2.5 km. So terrain can change a lot in that box, Alex this definitely affects your P&C. The text you see on the web is essentially an average of what is going on in that grid box. You can easily see changes of over 1000 feet in those grids boxes in the Whites. Another factor is that models generally suck in terrain. Their grid boxes are even larger, and then we try and downscale them, and it's just not perfect. 

More than likely also a factor is that old dog, new tricks. Many forecasters in the NWS are used to the old days of hand typing a forecast out based on what they interpret from the models. Many are very good forecasters. Some are quite bad at actually putting their thoughts into graphical form. So you'll read an AFD that is sound meteorologically, but they struggle to put that into the grids. So you'll see a P&C that is out of whack with the AFD. 

I battle it every day.

[OceanStWx]

3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

My wife is in st. Thomas for work. Nice shot of cruise ship leaving port

Morningstar Beach at the Marriott? The cruise ships leave right by it.

I'll be there a week from Thursday.

[alex]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

So for starters, our forecast is created using grids, which are 2.5 km by 2.5 km. So terrain can change a lot in that box, Alex this definitely affects your P&C. The text you see on the web is essentially an average of what is going on in that grid box. You can easily see changes of over 1000 feet in those grids boxes in the Whites. Another factor is that models generally suck in terrain. Their grid boxes are even larger, and then we try and downscale them, and it's just not perfect. 

More than likely also a factor is that old dog, new tricks. Many forecasters in the NWS are used to the old days of hand typing a forecast out based on what they interpret from the models. Many are very good forecasters. Some are quite bad at actually putting their thoughts into graphical form. So you'll read an AFD that is sound meteorologically, but they struggle to put that into the grids. So you'll see a P&C that is out of whack with the AFD. 

I battle it every day.

Thank you for the explanation, I really appreciate it. I understand the challenges, hopefully it can improve with time. I guess I've never been in an area that is so heavily affected by the problem. 

Flight from SLC delayed. Grrrrr. I wanna get home 

 

[powderfreak]

Looks like we had a period of 32.5 degree rain yesterday evening at home which then switched to 32.5F snow and left a half inch of paste on everything this morning. 

Up at the mountain similar deal except it was freezing rain and some sleet prior to midnight, followed by a very wet 1" at the base and what's being reported to me as 1.5" up higher but maybe a little more with the sleet from earlier in the night.

Anyway, it looks nice out there in the early morning darkness with paste on every little twig, even if only an inch.

[Lava Rock]

Morningstar Beach at the Marriott? The cruise ships leave right by it.

I'll be there a week from Thursday.

Yes pretty sure that's it. Wouldn't mind being there for a few days.

[powderfreak]

Definitely looks like there was some more snow a little south of here as Killington got 3" and although Sugarbush is saying 6" its probably still a good dense 3".

It looks like the 6" is measured along the snow that's piled up in the back wall of the snow cam hole.  Out in front of the stake there's a good flat area (dark color) and then where the light hits its starting to slope upward.

Anyway, I'd call this a dense 3 inches and probably will ski pretty nice.

[powderfreak]

Actually looks like they changed it from 6" to 3"....props to Sugarbush for doing that on the last few snowfalls.  Realizing the snow cam is biased high and making amends.  It has to be confusing though for whoever is doing the report, especially if they aren't a total weather nutjob like some of us, lol. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.32” L.E.

 

I wasn’t up to see it, but the rain eventually changed to snow down at this elevation with 0.2” on the boards this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.9

Snow Density: 35.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

[adk]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Actually looks like they changed it from 6" to 3"....props to Sugarbush for doing that on the last few snowfalls.  Realizing the snow cam is biased high and making amends.  It has to be confusing though for whoever is doing the report, especially if they aren't a total weather nutjob like some of us, lol. 

that 1.5-3" will make a big difference as the temps drop. Hopefully that blends in and we can avoid that bad rain/freeze crust. 

[ApacheTrout]

0.48 of rain.  lovely.

 

[klw]

We added about a half inch of glaciation to the base.  Some snow, some sleet, some rain- some big crust action to follow once the cold air returns.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, adk said:

that 1.5-3" will make a big difference as the temps drop. Hopefully that blends in and we can avoid that bad rain/freeze crust. 

Pretty good crust when I went to check the snowstake...last nights freezing rain didn't knock the snow off the trees but it definitely laid down a breakable rail-road crust.

[tamarack]

1.5" of IP/SN/ZR with 0.68" LE will make for a fine crust, especially if we can top it with a few inches of powder.  Belgrade area had about 1/4" glaze, enough to bend birches but not sufficient to break things.  The much lighter glaze outside the office was brilliant when backlighted by the sun.   Last evening's mess lead to a truck (coming down from Poland Spring's Kingfield bottling plant) missing a corner in Farmington and plowing into a house, fortunately plowing through lots of snow first so damage to the building wasn't too bad.  Driver (from FL - go figure) and passenger taken to hospital, as the cab was scrunched a good bit.

[Lava Rock]

0.37" liquid. Mostly frozen. Pact is intact. Long range doesn't look exciting over the next week. More rain next week?

[eyewall]

So much for a NNE winter LOL. Well I suppose it is if you are in Maine. In this area it has the post-cutter look of a few snow patches, mud, and puddles.

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, eyewall said:

So much for a NNE winter LOL. Well I suppose it is if you are in Maine. In this area it has the post-cutter look of a few snow patches, mud, and puddles.

Head east young man, head east.

[eyewall]

Head east young man, head east.

Or west to the tug hill

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

So much for a NNE winter LOL. Well I suppose it is if you are in Maine. In this area it has the post-cutter look of a few snow patches, mud, and puddles.

No worries.  Due for a pause before getting to the heart of winter.  Glass half full.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

So much for a NNE winter LOL. Well I suppose it is if you are in Maine. In this area it has the post-cutter look of a few snow patches, mud, and puddles.

 

Yeah, based on what I saw on my drive to Burlington this morning, the snowpack that was already quite lean yesterday from Bolton Flats westward is pretty much gone now in the lower valleys.  This was a bit of a “rich get richer/poor get poorer” type of event with respect to snowpack.  Most locations that have sufficient snow on the ground probably had it substantiated by the precipitation that fell, but if the snow depth was too shallow to hold up to the bit of rain, then that was it.  The snowpack at the house went down an inch, but the snow seems more substantial now.  I haven’t run a liquid analysis to be sure though.

 

But it’s an “NNE winter”, so folks should enjoy it while they can, it’s the only SNE winter they’ve got, etc., etc., etc.

 

[eyewall]

36 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, based on what I saw on my drive to Burlington this morning, the snowpack that was already quite lean yesterday from Bolton Flats westward is pretty much gone now in the lower valleys.  This was a bit of a “rich get richer/poor get poorer” type of event with respect to snowpack.  Most locations that have sufficient snow on the ground probably had it substantiated by the precipitation that fell, but if the snow depth was too shallow to hold up to the bit of rain, then that was it.  The snowpack at the house went down an inch, but the snow seems more substantial now.  I haven’t run a liquid analysis to be sure though.

 

But it’s an “NNE winter”, so folks should enjoy it while they can, it’s the only SNE winter they’ve got, etc., etc., etc.

 

Yep with wasted cold coming through the weekend. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

So much for a NNE winter LOL. Well I suppose it is if you are in Maine. In this area it has the post-cutter look of a few snow patches, mud, and puddles.

IDK NNE looks pretty good except your hood

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

1.5" of IP/SN/ZR with 0.68" LE will make for a fine crust, especially if we can top it with a few inches of powder.  Belgrade area had about 1/4" glaze, enough to bend birches but not sufficient to break things.  The much lighter glaze outside the office was brilliant when backlighted by the sun.   Last evening's mess lead to a truck (coming down from Poland Spring's Kingfield bottling plant) missing a corner in Farmington and plowing into a house, fortunately plowing through lots of snow first so damage to the building wasn't too bad.  Driver (from FL - go figure) and passenger taken to hospital, as the cab was scrunched a good bit.

Crunch

[Ginx snewx]

NWS Caribou ‏@NWSCaribou  26m26 minutes ago

The snow depth @NWSCaribou is 30" as of 1 pm this afternoon. The highest snow depth on this date since 1969! #mewx

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crunch

Thanks for posting the pic.  Could've been lots worse, like wiping out a utility pole or two, or hitting the north (far) corner of the house rather than just scraping off the porch.  That's the side of Rt 4 that pedestrians would use, also - glad none were there at the wrong time.

[powderfreak]

Solid graupel shower here at home off RT 108...just pelted and scalped by dippin dots.

Hurts walking the dog haha.

If 30dbz is pelting graupel I wonder what 50dbz is lol.

[powderfreak]

Holy ****.

This is one of the more intense winter squall lines you'll see.

Thunder and lightning and Sensation Quad just took a direct strike that took out power.  Probably associated with that core of heaviest echoes going over the county line.

 

Map indicating lightning strike in Stowe but its in the wrong location unless there were multiple strikes.  Heavy snow and graupel.  1" graupel in about 15 minutes at the resort.

...A LINE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
LAMOILLE...CALEDONIA... NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...ORLEANS...NORTHWESTERN
ESSEX AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 445 PM EST...A line of heavy snow showers and squalls were along
a line extending from near Jay In Franklin County to Moretown...and
moving east at 30 mph. Recent reports also indicate heavy graupel
with the heaviest cores. An isolated rumble of thunder is also
possible with this activity.

Locations impacted include...
Barre, Montpelier, Island Pond, Orange, Stowe, Williamstown,
Hardwick, Berlin, East Montpelier, Danville, Morrisville, Middlesex,
Waitsfield, Barnet, Wolcott, Troy, Moretown, Calais, Eden and
Plainfield.

  * Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this activity.

  * Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile.

Rapid visibility reduction and potentially icy roads are likely to
produce locally hazardous driving conditions. If you are traveling
and encounter adverse winter driving conditions, reduce speed and
make sure headlights are on to increase the visibility of your
vehicle to those around you.

[alex]

I'm finally home! Found an icy mess in the driveway and now we are having heavy snow squalls and howling wind. 

Funny thing is, after a week in Montana/Wyoming, it feels like mid-spring...

[Lava Rock]

NWS Caribou ‏@NWSCaribou  26m26 minutes ago

re-wrap;font-weight:400;" xml:lang="en"> The snow depth @NWSCaribou is 30" as of 1 pm this afternoon. The highest snow depth on this date since 1969! #mewx

Wow, quite a stat. I would have thought they've had more

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Holy ****.

This is one of the more intense winter squall lines you'll see.

Thunder and lightning and Sensation Quad just took a direct strike that took out power.  Probably associated with that core of heaviest echoes going over the county line.

 

Map indicating lightning strike in Stowe but its in the wrong location unless there were multiple strikes.  Heavy snow and graupel.  1" graupel in about 15 minutes at the resort.

...A LINE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
LAMOILLE...CALEDONIA... NORTHEASTERN ORANGE...ORLEANS...NORTHWESTERN
ESSEX AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 445 PM EST...A line of heavy snow showers and squalls were along
a line extending from near Jay In Franklin County to Moretown...and
moving east at 30 mph. Recent reports also indicate heavy graupel
with the heaviest cores. An isolated rumble of thunder is also
possible with this activity.

Locations impacted include...
Barre, Montpelier, Island Pond, Orange, Stowe, Williamstown,
Hardwick, Berlin, East Montpelier, Danville, Morrisville, Middlesex,
Waitsfield, Barnet, Wolcott, Troy, Moretown, Calais, Eden and
Plainfield.

  * Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this activity.

  * Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile.

Rapid visibility reduction and potentially icy roads are likely to
produce locally hazardous driving conditions. If you are traveling
and encounter adverse winter driving conditions, reduce speed and
make sure headlights are on to increase the visibility of your
vehicle to those around you.

That is awesome! It was a relatively minor graupel shower here but we have to take any frozen we can get lol.