NNE Winter Thread

[Hitman]

Funny I was just thinking about this.  I've been checking the afd's out of slc for snowbird and they are terrible compared to this from btv.

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Fun times in Pittsburg this morning. Gotta find some time to get up there with the sled, off to an awesome start.

i'll be at the lopstick in Feb. looking forward to it, I have no doubt that there will be plenty of snow.

[ono]

15 hours ago, Hitman said:

Funny I was just thinking about this.  I've been checking the afd's out of slc for snowbird and they are terrible compared to this from btv.

out west, sometimes the local avalanche center has decent localized weather forecasts for the mountains- at least elevation/aspect details that matter to their work.

[wxeyeNH]

To my untrained eyes the 12Z NAM is now basically a frozen event from Central NH north and east for the next weather event.  Even looks like snow.  Hum....

[eyewall]

Things look like ****e for the first half of the month it appears. 693 days and counting since the last winter storm warning in Burlington. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ono said:

out west, sometimes the local avalanche center has decent localized weather forecasts for the mountains- at least elevation/aspect details that matter to their work.

Yeah I go to the Utah Avalanche Center forecast (seeing as they operate within the NWS office space) as those guys seem to know what's up.  

I also think the western offices deal with so many micro-climates (like in CO one office deals with Telluride all the way up to Steamboat) it would almost be like one office covering all New England mountain zones.  It's gotta be hard to get too specific.

[Hitman]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I go to the Utah Avalanche Center forecast (seeing as they operate within the NWS office space) as those guys seem to know what's up.  

I also think the western offices deal with so many micro-climates (like in CO one office deals with Telluride all the way up to Steamboat) it would almost be like one office covering all New England mountain zones.  It's gotta be hard to get too specific.

Everything worked out well.  There was maybe 3" at the base when I got up but at least 10" up top, and continued to puke snow all day.  Here's a picture of the cirque where the snow was thigh deep at 3pm.

[alex]

Our AFD says 6"+, our P&C says a mix of rain and snow with less than an inch accumulation. WTF

[wxeyeNH]

33 minutes ago, alex said:

Our AFD says 6"+, our P&C says a mix of rain and snow with less than an inch accumulation. WTF

Alex,  I'm going to remotely disable the P&C features on all your electronics!  It's going to be the death of you...lol...They probably work better in flat areas.  Your location in such mountainous terrain probably makes the computer algorithms impossible to calculate accurately.  Maybe OceanWx can explain how they are created.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Hitman said:

Everything worked out well.  There was maybe 3" at the base when I got up but at least 10" up top, and continued to puke snow all day.  Here's a picture of the cirque where the snow was thigh deep at 3pm.

 

Sick I didn't know you were out there!  Just thought you were reading the AFDs out there, ha ha!

Snowbird with 168" on the season is just ahead of your home hill at the Bush though I'll go out on a limb and venture you'll enjoy the Bird conditions a lot more.

This is my favorite page for the Cottonwoods:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/snow/mtnwx/mtnForecast.php

My dream is to create a similar page for the northern Greens, ha.

[alex]

17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex,  I'm going to remotely disable the P&C features on all your electronics!  It's going to be the death of you...lol...They probably work better in flat areas.  Your location in such mountainous terrain probably makes the computer algorithms impossible to calculate accurately.  Maybe OceanWx can explain how they are created.  

Well, maybe so, but the vast majority of people look at the forecast by searching for a location and that's what shows up. If NWS can't figure out how to get P&C to work, maybe they SHOULD disable it. My town depends on tourism. When the P&C says rain and in fact we may be getting a lot of snow, that's a huge disservice. BTV doesn't seem to have so many issues. OceanWx - sorry if this sounds critical but really, I hope someone at GYX can take notice and do something about it! The Whites are like the NWS's red headed stepchild 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, alex said:

Our AFD says 6"+, our P&C says a mix of rain and snow with less than an inch accumulation. WTF

Same head-scratcher combo for Southern Franklin, MBY.  However, that P&C is essentially identical to the AM one, just updated to note passing of time today.  The earlier one fit with the then-current AFD; the later one naso much.

[Hitman]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Sick I didn't know you were out there!  Just thought you were reading the AFDs out there, ha ha!

Snowbird with 168" on the season is just ahead of your home hill at the Bush though I'll go out on a limb and venture you'll enjoy the Bird conditions a lot more.

This is my favorite page for the Cottonwoods:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/snow/mtnwx/mtnForecast.php

My dream is to create a similar page for the northern Greens, ha.

That's a cool site.

yeah apparently a front stalled and there was "amplification".  it's still dumping.  Expecting another foot before first tram.  So, where yesterday, nws had forecast 6-10", Wunderground and snow forecast.com had 1-2" has turned out to be at least 3 feet.  My flight leaves at 1:40 so I'll get some turns in the morning.  My kids first time out west and pretty confident this was the best day of my sons life.

however, prior to this event it hadn't snowed in over a week and was warm and sunny.  So while they had plenty of snow, it was mostly crusty or styrofoam until it softened up in the afternoon.  The ungroomed was not good.

also, obviously the skiing and snow is incomparable, but we all miss the mrv.  What I wouldn't have done for some mad taco, American flatbread and Lawson's.

[CoolMike]

Change flights dude!  I've been at the bird after 2+ feet of snow and its worth it!

 

Edit: Wake up early, monitor whats actually open due to avalanche control and then call your airline if it looks good.  3 feet is serious out at Snowbird and they will probably only open a few lifts at first.  Good luck!

[eyewall]

If you can extend your time at Snowbird do so. The first half of January looks like crap for this area. This winter's grade is going to take a hit.

[J.Spin]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The first half of January looks like crap for this area. This winter's grade is going to take a hit.

Wow, that’s quite an interesting take on where the season is going.  I’d say it’s really only at a straight C (average) as it is at this point in our area, so it’s only going to become more challenging to stay in synch with the fabulous “NNE Winter” that is apparently taking place right now.  Maybe there are a lot of bonus points still up for grabs that could be tossed around.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

Wow, that’s quite an interesting take on where the season is going.  I’d say it’s really only at a straight C (average) as it is at this point in our area, so it’s only going to become more challenging to stay in synch with the fabulous “NNE Winter” that is apparently taking place right now.  Maybe there are a lot of bonus points still up for grabs that could be tossed around.

BTV is as 21 inches and change for this winter or just under 4 inches below normal. Last year at this time we were at 7 inches. I would say a C is fair right now for this point in the season. 

[nzucker]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV is as 21 inches and change for this winter or just under 4 inches below normal. Last year at this time we were at 7 inches. I would say a C is fair right now for this point in the season. 

It's been a better winter south and west of you guys...BGM is near 60"...the Catskills, Poconos, and LES areas are having a pretty decent winter. Though I have to say, I was in NE PA at 1600' this weekend and there was only about 3" on the ground, and bare spots were starting to show up Sunday/Monday w temps in the 40s...most of that snow will be gone now. So it hasn't been an amazing season there as I've seen a foot on the ground by 1/1 often.

[J.Spin]

15 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV is as 21 inches and change for this winter or just under 4 inches below normal. Last year at this time we were at 7 inches. I would say a C is fair right now for this point in the season. 

 

The snowfall deficit here using my numbers is similar – we’ve had 49.0 inches of snowfall through today, which is 3 to 4 inches behind average.  That’s certainly a smaller percentage behind relative to BTV, and well within 1 S.D., so nothing remarkable that would really pull the grade below average. 

 

The state of the snowpack is more notable though – it was at 5.0 inches as of this morning, which is less than half of average.  It’s been lagging behind the past couple of weeks, so the deficit is getting more substantial now.  Realistically, one could drop the grade to a C- with that factored in, but it’s still within one S.D., so I don’t think the grade needs to drop too far below average at this point.

 

Dropping westward down the pass from our area to Bolton Flats though, the snowpack is super thin and patchy.  They’re certainly more prone to warm air intrusions, but they’re still well into the mountains and it’s hard to imagine that they should be almost devoid of snowpack in January in an “NNE winter”.

[adk]

59 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Wow, that’s quite an interesting take on where the season is going.  I’d say it’s really only at a straight C (average) as it is at this point in our area, so it’s only going to become more challenging to stay in synch with the fabulous “NNE Winter” that is apparently taking place right now.  Maybe there are a lot of bonus points still up for grabs that could be tossed around.

I think in the Mtns the grade is a "B" 

December was good. Not great. Not amazing. Not epic. Just good and above average in terms of "quality."  

I think there is a lot of "grade inflation" taking place right now because last year was so bad. 

[J.Spin]

8 minutes ago, adk said:

I think in the Mtns the grade is a "B" 

December was good. Not great. Not amazing. Not epic. Just good and above average in terms of "quality."  

I think there is a lot of "grade inflation" taking place right now because last year was so bad. 

 

I agree adk, B seems like a perfect grade for the local NVT mountains thus far (certainly east slope) in my mind barring a thorough inspection of the actual numbers.  I’d probably knock down the west slope a bit based on first-hand experience up at Bolton Valley (no Timberline, only minimal/marginal natural terrain in play, surface conditions, etc.)

[powderfreak]

Models definitely coming in colder tonight and now seem to want to end us as a period of snow after midnight...EURO/NAM/RGEM/GFS all seem to indicate the potential for 1-3" after midnight tonight once the mid-levels cool off a bit with the developing surface low off the coast of Maine.

 

Euro also does it...goes from rain over to wet snow with the cooling in the H85-H7 layer and almost goes to an elevation dependent snow event after midnight.

[mreaves]

In terms of grading the winter thus far, I would go with a C maybe a C- because of the lack of cold low temps.  While there hasn't been a real torch, it has not been cold either.  I'd like more below 0 lows with teens for highs types of days so that water could freeze up solidly. 

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

The snowfall deficit here using my numbers is similar – we’ve had 49.0 inches of snowfall through today, which is 3 to 4 inches behind average.  That’s certainly a smaller percentage behind relative to BTV, and well within 1 S.D., so nothing remarkable that would really pull the grade below average. 

 

The state of the snowpack is more notable though – it was at 5.0 inches as of this morning, which is less than half of average.  It’s been lagging behind the past couple of weeks, so the deficit is getting more substantial now.  Realistically, one could drop the grade to a C- with that factored in, but it’s still within one S.D., so I don’t think the grade needs to drop too far below average at this point.

 

Dropping westward down the pass from our area to Bolton Flats though, the snowpack is super thin and patchy.  They’re certainly more prone to warm air intrusions, but they’re still well into the mountains and it’s hard to imagine that they should be almost devoid of snowpack in January in an “NNE winter”.

Seeing on cocorahs that those west slope upslope towns like Underhill only have like 1-2" snow depth which is pretty amazing.

Certainly hasn't been a great snowpack year west of the spine, not that any spots west of the spine are great retention sites.  Although even down here where I can torch with the best of the them, I have had consistent cover since 12/5-- Looks like some decent depths on the east side..lots of 12"+ even some down here in SVT.

 

 

[tamarack]

Oct-Nov were meh, or worse, but Dec was 4F BN (4th coldest of 19 Decembers) and the 39.9" is 4th greatest for any month.  Given the month's far greater "weight" than O&N, winter is running at least B+ here, thanks mainly to the big dump last week plus 2 mornings -20 or colder.  (18 previous Decembers recorded just one, in 2013.)  Even if all the months Jan-May graded at F for both temp and snow (which of course will not be close to happening), this winter would finish a whisker ahead of last - which may say more about 15-16 than about 16-17.

[Skivt2]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

I agree adk, B seems like a perfect grade for the local NVT mountains thus far (certainly east slope) in my mind barring a thorough inspection of the actual numbers.  I’d probably knock down the west slope a bit based on first-hand experience up at Bolton Valley (no Timberline, only minimal/marginal natural terrain in play, surface conditions, etc.)

Pico mountain is in the same shape.  It's interesting to hear about Bolton having similar conditions given each of their positions being more west.  We were amazed at the difference just over the pass at Killington.  Fortunately it has been snowing and 32 degrees at Pico all day today.  It seemed to be raining/freezing raining at a Killington this morning.  There was a good crust on the cars early this morning at Pico.  But it's definitely colder on the west side today.

[powderfreak]

I just looked at the Stowe village CoCoRAHS guy for an easy comparison (our amounts differ sometimes but it's good info) and he's at 48.0" this year to date and was 9.1" last year.

Given I think we average around 120"... I think getting 48" prior to January 1st is fairly solid.  And I haven't seen my grass since November I believe.  

Up at the mountain the Mansfield Stake is solidly above normal and has been all month. At the base of the mountain we've had about 2-3 weeks of 14-20" depths (18" yesterday morning).  The Mansfield east side snowpack has been more than hefty enough for off-piste and treeskiing for a couple weeks now...right to the base as evident by the stout 18" snow depth at 1500ft that has some serious water in it too.  

For the mountain we've had natural snow terrain open since the big upslope event in early December, and the upper headwalls have already been open much more than last year.

My Mountain Operations hat says we are locally doing very well based on natural snow terrain (Stowe is stringent too on openings) and the kicker is the amount of natural snow terrain we groom on a nightly basis.  That's my personal barometer...if an area can consistently groom natural snow terrain without beating it into dirt, they've got a durable snowpack.  There were 3 stretches in Dec when we had the most open terrain in the East because of that stout natural pack.  

Yet another barometer would be the fact that the Toll House area has been open for a couple weeks at 1300ft on all natural snow it can withstand nightly grooming.

I'd grade a solid B right now.  But I'm also living in a very narrow world consisting of RT 108 and occasionally RT 100.  If I had to go to BTV and see bare ground daily I might feel differently.  As it is, my house is the least snowy thing I see all day and it's been decent here.

[Hitman]

4 hours ago, CoolMike said:

Change flights dude!  I've been at the bird after 2+ feet of snow and its worth it!

 

Edit: Wake up early, monitor whats actually open due to avalanche control and then call your airline if it looks good.  3 feet is serious out at Snowbird and they will probably only open a few lifts at first.  Good luck!

I'm with the wife so that ain't happening.  I got 5 insane runs in this morning.  Fwiw they are focused to get crushed again starting Wednesday 

[CoolMike]

At least you got those 5 runs in!  That place is magical.

I too have struggled with getting reliable weather reports for the LCC/BCC area.  I've tried (somewhat unsuccessfully) to convince the wife to let me take a weekend and fly over there following a big storm.  The problem of course if significant family related responsibilities.  One day I'll be back though!

[ono]

Ran some numbers- through Dec. 31st, the snowpack on top of Mansfield is right around the 79th percentile in terms of snow-depth days. That is, the cumulative daily measurement of snow at the stake is  ~1394 depth-days through New Years Day.  By comparison, at the same time last year stood this metric stood at around 151 depth-days.  (numbers are ballpark).  So there's that.  It's been a good winter so far- high average, and relative to the recent past- amazing.  Granted, there's absolutely no snow in the valley here.