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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Surprised a bit to find almost 2" at home (actual 1.75")...made it a winter wonderland again with snow on every branch and freshening up the old snowpack.  Must've stretched downwind enough to snow nicely here for a while.

I've heard that its a NNE winter. :whistle:

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

We hope.  I'm still keeping my expectations in check.  6" is good, 8" is better, 10"+ is cause for nude snow angels.

Lol. Totally. Wont take many east ticks for most us to be on the fringe.  We don't have the wiggle room the Dendrites, wxeyeNhs, eeks, etc of the world have.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

There was 1.7” of accumulation here at the house since the 6:00 A.M. clearing – seems very similar to what PF observed at his place as well.  It’s not outrageously dry, but fairly feathery at a snow to liquid ratio of 25 to 1.  We’ve had another 0.3” since I cleared the boards, so there will be a bit more to add to this event.

 

Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 24.3

Snow Density: 4.1% H2O

Temperature: 27.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I’ve added the latest advisory and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS afternoon update below.  Winter Storm Warnings stretch westward to the western slopes as before, with Winter Weather Advisories west of there.  The Winter Storm Warning text took another bump to 8”-16”, after moving from the initial 6”-12” to 7”-14” in the last update.  Also notable is that accumulation projection shading in the 12-18” range has moved westward to the spine of the Greens in some areas.

 

28DEC16C.jpg

 

28DEC16D.jpg

 

WWUS41 KBTV 281934

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

234 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

 

VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-016>019-291000-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0004.161229T1500Z-161230T1800Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-

WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, JOHNSON, STOWE,

ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND,

SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION, ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD,

UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON, EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

234 PM EST WED DEC 28 2016

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO

1 PM EST FRIDAY...

 

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE

  WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS

  NEAR 20 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN GREEN

  MOUNTAINS.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY FROM

  THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME

  HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE

  TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING.

 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND

  SLIPPERY ROADS, ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR

  THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES. AREAS OF

  BLOWING SNOW AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35

  MPH...BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE MID

  20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF

SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN

AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...

FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

I wonder if there will be other solid chances like this later this winter. I know synoptic double digit events are not something that happens everyday. Could this be the biggest event of the season? I am hoping I can see something decent perhaps in later Jan or Feb. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Posted
5 minutes ago, ono said:

all this talk of Thursday-Friday, and yet it never stopped snowing from this morning still big, fat flakes coming down, though intensity is lighter.  A 3-5" sleeper.  

What'd you guys get in BTV area?

We've been talking about that at the mountain today... we'll get all this hype and excitement for a big storm and we'll get 8" or so (which is awesome).  But our bread and butter is the sleeper snows that no one knows is happening, like today.

Today's snowfall (1-5") if happening in SNE would've been a 30 page thread.  We can get a weak shortwave that interacts just right with the mountains and all the sudden we get 8-10"...same as if we track a huge nor'easter for days and days and get 8" lol.

 

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What'd you guys get in BTV area?

We've been talking about that at the mountain today... we'll get all this hype and excitement for a big storm and we'll get 8" or so (which is awesome).  But our bread and butter is the sleeper snows that no one knows is happening, like today.

Today's snowfall (1-5") if happening in SNE would've been a 30 page thread.  We can get a weak shortwave that interacts just right with the mountains and all the sudden we get 8-10"...same as if we track a huge nor'easter for days and days and get 8" lol.

 

~1" at best. started with some graupel, then big parachutes on/off all day- so it felt wintry, but really didn't accumulate. 

edit: probably under an inch for sure. 3/4" max?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Posted
Just now, eyewall said:

I wonder if there will be other solid chances like this later this winter. I know synoptic double digit events are not something that happens everyday. Could this be the biggest event of the season? I am hoping I can see something decent perhaps in later Jan or Feb. 

I'd strongly lean away from BTV getting double digits in this.  Even I have this sneaky feeling the mountains will do well but could be a bunch of 6-10" amounts in the lower elevations.  I'm still liking 6-12" for the mountain, and if the upslope goes off it could be like 14".  I'm just not buying the far western tracks of some models as I feel convection or other stuff often tries to kick these eastward at the last moment.   Not much but even 20-40 miles is a big deal.

I like 3-6" in BTV.

We used to get synoptic storms of this size all the time it seemed...not all the time but once a month at least.  I wouldn't worry about missing it.  I can tell you are worried it won't come back again, ha ha.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

I'd strongly lean away from BTV getting double digits in this.  Even I have this sneaky feeling the mountains will do well but could be a bunch of 6-10" amounts in the lower elevations.  I'm still liking 6-12" for the mountain, and if the upslope goes off it could be like 14".  I'm just not buying the far western tracks of some models as I feel convection or other stuff often tries to kick these eastward at the last moment.   Not much but even 20-40 miles is a big deal.

I like 3-6" in BTV.

We used to get synoptic storms of this size all the time it seemed...not all the time but once a month at least.  I wouldn't worry about missing it.  I can tell you are worried it won't come back again, ha ha.

Yeah I am for sure, especially with the potential of coming back to face a rainer next week (or potential rainer/mixed p-type). I know there will be a lull at least through the first week of the month. At least the ski conditions should remain reasonable when I return.

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'd strongly lean away from BTV getting double digits in this.  Even I have this sneaky feeling the mountains will do well but could be a bunch of 6-10" amounts in the lower elevations.  I'm still liking 6-12" for the mountain, and if the upslope goes off it could be like 14".  I'm just not buying the far western tracks of some models as I feel convection or other stuff often tries to kick these eastward at the last moment.   Not much but even 20-40 miles is a big deal.

I like 3-6" in BTV.

We used to get synoptic storms of this size all the time it seemed...not all the time but once a month at least.  I wouldn't worry about missing it.  I can tell you are worried it won't come back again, ha ha.

Conservative, but understandable moderating expectations. It is a tight gradient. I think 10"+ for the mountains is reasonable through Saturday morning, though it is tight. 2 feet at Jay? Well, that would be something, but not guaranteed. The synoptic stuff is what is exciting- get some more heft to the snowpack at the lower elevations (especially the western side of the Spine that's been especially hurting down low).

Between now and the weekend, conditions stand to be much improved. We're already on our way there with 4-5" today, though the radar seems to show the airmass drying out as of now.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Posted

Still snowing lightly (pretty much flurries) at the top of the Gondola this evening...night event going on at the Cliff House. 

Photo by my colleague...wind definitely re-distributing and filling in the low spots on already skied terrain.

Check out that traffic leaving the resort!  Weather did not help today in regards to transit.

15672963_998428490878_429881942258966312

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We've been talking about that at the mountain today... we'll get all this hype and excitement for a big storm and we'll get 8" or so (which is awesome).  But our bread and butter is the sleeper snows that no one knows is happening, like today.

Today's snowfall (1-5") if happening in SNE would've been a 30 page thread.  We can get a weak shortwave that interacts just right with the mountains and all the sudden we get 8-10"...same as if we track a huge nor'easter for days and days and get 8" lol.

 

Yeah, we love the bread and butter stuff, that’s really what gets us the big monthly snowfall averages up here, it’s not because we get five big synoptic storms a month.  Case in point, another inch fell since I cleared the boards at 4:00 P.M., which equates to 2.8” for this event – such a sleeper event that it was barely even talked about here in the NNE thread.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.08” L.E.

 

This evening’s accumulation of snow was extremely dry, it looks like the fluffiest of the season thus far aside from potentially some samples with only a trace of liquid.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 100.0

Snow Density: 1.0% H2O

Temperature: 22.5 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I didn’t see any notable changes in the advisories map, but the BTV NWS projected accumulations map has been tapered back to something more along the lines of yesterday morning’s map.  The BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions total accumulations through Friday evening of 10 to 20 inches in the NEK and high peaks with back side snows.

 

29DEC16A.jpg

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

I think this is going to be a pretty underwhelming event west of the spine. For the spine I think the period to watch is midnight tonight - 12pm Friday. That's when the winds move to North/norhtwest. WRF shows a good upslope signature that could result in some pretty impressive 6 hour totals. - Like 6" in 4 hours kinda snow.  

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JLPhill

JLPhill

Posted
Posted

Long time lurker with a quick question for the NNE crew:

I'm thinking of taking a day trip up to Stratton for tomorrow, but am on the fence now, especially given trends of later storm development and QPF reduction to about .5-.75.  Does Stratton have localized upslope effects that may overcome the lack of synoptic snowfall, or is that more of a phenomenon in the northern greens?

Also, how much snow do you think would be necessary to provide enough cover to make for a decent day skiing? Recent snow reports make the current conditions seem dire.

 

Thank you!

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 


Looking at radar trends it might be. The 12z Euro really took it east.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

And the 18z HRRRRRRRRRRR has even less for VT by tomorrow 12z. Shifts the axis if heavy precip into central maine, even reduces what NH and western ME get. 

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