backedgeapproaching Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 ALY put up a watch about and hour ago for 6-12, first guess is the low end of the guidance on the west slopes of the greens here. ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning... The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning. * Locations... southern Vermont... Berkshires... northern Litchfield Hills... northern and central Taconics... and Washington County. * Hazard types... heavy snow. * Snow accumulations... potential for 6 to 12 inches. * Timing... snow is expected to develop on Thursday and become heavy at times Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Snow will taper off on Friday. * Maximum snowfall rates... up to 1 inch per hour... mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY put up a watch about and hour ago for 6-12, first guess is the low end of the guidance on the west slopes of the greens here. ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning... The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning. * Locations... southern Vermont... Berkshires... northern Litchfield Hills... northern and central Taconics... and Washington County. * Hazard types... heavy snow. * Snow accumulations... potential for 6 to 12 inches. * Timing... snow is expected to develop on Thursday and become heavy at times Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Snow will taper off on Friday. * Maximum snowfall rates... up to 1 inch per hour... mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. BTV did the same earlier. If we were to hit the high end, I'm not sure I would remember how to handle it, it's been so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 14 minutes ago, mreaves said: BTV did the same earlier. If we were to hit the high end, I'm not sure I would remember how to handle it, it's been so long! Your in a pretty good spot I think near MPV being further east. Think you could get double figures. A lot tougher for BTV in this setup, a lot going against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 27 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Your in a pretty good spot I think near MPV being further east. Think you could get double figures. A lot tougher for BTV in this setup, a lot going against them. Yeah I'd be very conservative in BTV...with no orographics (either frontside easterly flow or backside NW flow) to compensate for missing synoptic processes. Even here I'm feeling more of the 3-6" variety than the 6-12". But we'all see. I truly think these things often develop further north/east than models show. Even 30-40 miles further east is a problem for a lot of western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I have no clue. 4 to 16 inches seems to be the range for here on the latest runs. I will say that the low track would seem to favor a deformation band setting up between me an PFreak. I could see his 3-6 being met in one hour if things play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 49 minutes ago, klw said: I have no clue. 4 to 16 inches seems to be the range for here on the latest runs. I will say that the low track would seem to favor a deformation band setting up between me an PFreak. I could see his 3-6 being met in one hour if things play out like that. Hmmmm, I seem to be located between you and PF. I like your way of thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The wraparound Friday seems to be a pretty solid setup from the looks of it. While ya can never hang yer hat on them, these events pile up it up in the Whites and interior ME while we get advisory level snows, and then 12 hours later the higher terrain makes up the difference on NW flow- not a bullseye, but a respectable event. I can see how 4-8" of upslope could happen. 6-12" widespread synoptic snow with this thing- well, that's tough to call as always. These things have a way of shifting around several times in the models the last 24-36 hours. BTV goes all in with the snowfall maps, pulls back, then goes all in or pulls back more- it happens. Between tonight and Saturday night, however, it seems likely that the snow surfaces will improve markedly for the holiday crowds regardless- so that's good for them. Hopefully things work out for those of us who don't ski at the resorts, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 29 minutes ago, ono said: The wraparound Friday seems to be a pretty solid setup from the looks of it. While ya can never hang yer hat on them, these events pile up it up in the Whites and interior ME while we get advisory level snows, and then 12 hours later the higher terrain makes up the difference on NW flow- not a bullseye, but a respectable event. I can see how 4-8" of upslope could happen. 6-12" widespread synoptic snow with this thing- well, that's tough to call as always. These things have a way of shifting around several times in the models the last 24-36 hours. BTV goes all in with the snowfall maps, pulls back, then goes all in or pulls back more- it happens. Between tonight and Saturday night, however, it seems likely that the snow surfaces will improve markedly for the holiday crowds regardless- so that's good for them. Hopefully things work out for those of us who don't ski at the resorts, too. Great post, I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Great post, I could see that happening. Just going by the pattern and how these things shake out- 10" above 2000' Sugarbush to Jay seems like a comfortable number through Sunday- a baseline for a reasonable optimist. Just would like some of the beef of a 12"+ synoptic snow that hits all elevations- because that's what's needed right now for many areas to really come online. That 4-8" of upslope will be above 2000', generally, while high qpf synoptic snow is needed down to the base area elevations to really open it up. Though it seems Stowe is doing particularly well, it's not the same everywhere at the 1300-1500' elevations where most trailheads begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Hmmmm, I seem to be located between you and PF. I like your way of thinking! Nah, you're hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Haha. Wouldn't shock me in the least. I'll be ok with 6", happy with 8" and ecstatic with 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm in Park City but have been checking on things - although bummed to be missing it, I'm rooting for as big as possible for as many as possible. In the meantime, hello to all NNE peeps. Beautiful mountains out here, and yet they remind me every day of how awesome New England is, too, from the Shores of the Cape to the Whites and the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 hours ago, alex said: I'm in Park City but have been checking on things - although bummed to be missing it, I'm rooting for as big as possible for as many as possible. In the meantime, hello to all NNE peeps. Beautiful mountains out here, and yet they remind me every day of how awesome New England is, too, from the Shores of the Cape to the Whites and the Greens. Ahhh I was wondering if you'd be home! Bretton Woods looks like it could be in the jackpot but its also the northwest slope so I'm not sure how that plays in this type of situation. Models seem to like 18" there at your place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 I only had about a quarter inch of snow when I left the house this morning and we've got 1/4-1/2" here at the office. A co-worker just came in and said they had like 1.5" overnight in Stowe Hollow and I was watching the radar last night...kept showing some weird band like immediately down-wind of Mansfield's "Chin". There's been a narrow axis in town that's seen some pretty steady snow since about 3am, with 1-2" apparently just northeast of Stowe Village center and east of RT 100 up into the western slope of the Worcester Range (the general Stowe Hollow area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The Winter Storm Watch for Vermont has been converted to a Winter Storm Warning with this morning’s update, and the storm has been named Winter Storm Fortis. The projected accumulations in this area seem generally on track with what was suggested yesterday, with a slight bump to 7-14” in the warning text. Updated maps and text are below: WWUS41 KBTV 280842 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 342 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016 VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-016>019-282200- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0004.161229T1500Z-161231T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.161229T1500Z-161230T1800Z/ ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE- WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, JOHNSON, STOWE, ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND, SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION, ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON, EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON 342 AM EST WED DEC 28 2016 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS, ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 seems like they backed off the higher totals over the higher terrain a bit in the northern Greens. We'll see. The maps will continue to change through the next 24 hours or so as usual. On another note, a nice band looks to be making its way over Mansfield/Smuggs area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 33 minutes ago, ono said: seems like they backed off the higher totals over the higher terrain a bit in the northern Greens. We'll see. The maps will continue to change through the next 24 hours or so as usual. On another note, a nice band looks to be making its way over Mansfield/Smuggs area. Its dumping out right now. Under 1/4sm visibility...can't see past the base lodge and can't see the other side of the transfer Gondola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I only had about a quarter inch of snow when I left the house this morning and we've got 1/4-1/2" here at the office. A co-worker just came in and said they had like 1.5" overnight in Stowe Hollow and I was watching the radar last night...kept showing some weird band like immediately down-wind of Mansfield's "Chin". There's been a narrow axis in town that's seen some pretty steady snow since about 3am, with 1-2" apparently just northeast of Stowe Village center and east of RT 100 up into the western slope of the Worcester Range (the general Stowe Hollow area). I found a tenth of an inch on the boards this morning, although there’s additional accumulation now with the latest influx of precipitation that ono mentioned. You can see the moisture pushing into the area from the northwest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 This is intense... going to be 1-2" in a half hour I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is intense... going to be 1-2" in a half hour I think. Yeah, there were some big flakes up to an inch across – the recent burst dropped an additional 0.8” here since I cleared this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Enjoy it guys! I am in NC until New Years so I am taking one for the team. Of course I will have to endure the rainer next week when I return LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: Enjoy it guys! I am in NC until New Years so I am taking one for the team. Of course I will have to endure the rainer next week when I return LOL. I pray for your sanity that BTV doesnt verify warning criteria. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I pray for your sanity that BTV doesnt verify warning criteria. lolI fully expected something to happen while I was away.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Enjoy it guys! I am in NC until New Years so I am taking one for the team. Of course I will have to endure the rainer next week when I return LOL. same here. not coincidentally, the POp goes up just as Im scheduled to take off from JFK. am I totally off base, but it seems like this season, things have trended better from the 7-10 forecasts, whereas last season we seemed to be looking good up to d5 before going in the ****ter, week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 We are over 3" at the 3000ft board so far, 2" at the base. What a savior on this busy holiday week at the ski resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Hitman said: same here. not coincidentally, the POp goes up just as Im scheduled to take off from JFK. am I totally off base, but it seems like this season, things have trended better from the 7-10 forecasts, whereas last season we seemed to be looking good up to d5 before going in the ****ter, week after week. Yeah it is hard because the pattern doesn't look great after (although we will see if there is hope after next week). This system could be the biggest of the season for many in the region but that of course isn't set in stone by any stretch. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 the moisture stream coming from the west looks pretty solid still. Been snowing at a decent clip according to the webcams, and on/off all day here in BTV. Looks like a bit of a surprise powder day. Some pretty good 30 dBz echoes almost overhead, will hit Mansfield/Bolton pretty soon. Not bad to get things back into shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 13 minutes ago, ono said: the moisture stream coming from the west looks pretty solid still. Been snowing at a decent clip according to the webcams, and on/off all day here in BTV. Looks like a bit of a surprise powder day. Some pretty good 30 dBz echoes almost overhead, will hit Mansfield/Bolton pretty soon. Not bad to get things back into shape. We're gonna pull 3-4" today. Snow stake was already north of 3" at noon... I can post an image of it after I go check it in a little bit. Haven't cleaned it off yet today. Even in the base area its 2-3" in the parking lots. Really nice surprise for the holiday crowds. The corduroy was quite firm so this really helped. Actually some powder turns to be had in spots. Its great for this crowd too...they can't handle the dense big snowstorm snow but 2-4" of powder that makes everything look nice and skis nice. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It has even been stretching to down here on and off this morning. I was focusing on the Thursday event and wasn't expecting the mini surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 4.25" today...we'll call it a healthy 4". Bottom 2" were dense and almost graupel-like...top 2" was upslope feathers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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