CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Although main s/w is north of 18z, the whole thing is a bit flatter and seems like confluence holds a bit to make it a tick colder through 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: For us and you, I figure this is a 4-6" snowfall. I'm looking forward to it - was gone early in the week so missed the 3"er. Just seems like one of those types of snows where we get a nice steady moderate snow, with a heavy period for 6-10 hours. At least that's how it feels to me. That's reasonable Mahk, Ceiling is not very high with this event, Typical SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 End result is still warmer than the euro significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z Nam was worse then 18z here, Would be mixing issues after a front end thump, Shade warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHIPPINSHILL Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 USent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The euro will be telling tonight. If it's north and heading toward a GFS Nam solution, stick a fork in this one. Trends have not been our friends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not sure what to make of that NAM run. It is what it is. Getting sick of analyzing this damn thing to be frank. You know the NAM wants it warm when it starts off with a warm solution it shouldn't have and then changes the modeled pattern to keep it warm Haha. Wow. In any case just comes down to what Will and Scott and everybody were talking about the other day with the high-pressure timing. This one is the most egregious solution yet from the NM ... bodily displacing that high East. In fact this run goes so far we really would probably warm sector if this were to succeed. Not sure if I buy that it will just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's reasonable Mahk, Ceiling is not very high with this event, Typical SWFE Well typical low end swfe I think. I'm used to 6-10" swfe that we want to think are 10-14 but we know always turn out 6-10...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 30 minutes ago, Hazey said: The euro will be telling tonight. If it's north and heading toward a GFS Nam solution, stick a fork in this one. Trends have not been our friends today. NAM looks like snow to rain for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 NAM looks like snow to rain for you? Yup and the snow to rain ratio is quickly sliding to liquid. Not expecting much from this system. Not the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The high that the models showed smartly positioned north of Maine is morphing into a high south of Nova Scotia. Hard to get frozen with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Probably would've been fine with Monday but for that crazy Euro 12z yesterday. Major buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Probably would've been fine with Monday but for that crazy Euro 12z yesterday. Major buzzkillYeah the euro likes to throw a head fake in every now and again. Sucks but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not sure why anyone latched onto an outlier run for dear life....just as no one should be hanging themselves from the tippy top of the xmas tree based on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, ajisai said: Probably would've been fine with Monday but for that crazy Euro 12z yesterday. Major buzzkill Reason why you don't buy into one model run, You will end up being disappointed often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 00z GFS looks a bit better than 18z at least for SNE. It's faster than the 18z run so the temp comparisons can be a little misleading but it has a better looking front end thump. It is still not a solution I would want but if the system is going to refuse to redevelop a secondary earlier, then at least it is looking a little better on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z GFS looks a bit better than 18z at least for SNE. It's faster than the 18z run so the temp comparisons can be a little misleading but it has a better looking front end thump. It is still not a solution I would want but if the system is going to refuse to redevelop a secondary earlier, then at least it is looking a little better on the front. Sounds like we have a viable envelop of possible outcomes, as the bad trend has ceased, just as yesterday's good one did. Solid advisory event for most...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'll be shocked if the euro and ggem..well not so much the ggem, don't cave tonight. They'll get owned badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Thought it looked better until it warms quickly up to I84. whatevz, at this stage just lay down some white, tack on minor accums to the early start. anything but spandex and flip flops this Dec for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 we don't toss. This works for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: I'll be shocked if the euro and ggem..well not so much the ggem, don't cave tonight. They'll get owned badly. I'll be shocked if you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I want 2-4" is that too hard to ask for in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want 2-4" is that too hard to ask for in this setup? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM slightly warmer than the 12z but also a bit more robust with the qpf. Stays all snow north of CT/MA border roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want 2-4" is that too hard to ask for in this setup? whens the last time you had 2-4" from a primary driving from chicago into se canada with the secondary forming over Halifax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I want 2-4" is that too hard to ask for in this setup? You get an inch and you'll like it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: whens the last time you had 2-4" from a primary driving from chicago into se canada with the secondary forming over Halifax? In early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I was just asking a question, jeez. I know the odds aren't good, but the Wednesday storm looks to be all snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Right. just wait your turn James. the pv invasion exploding over the gulf stream will eventually happen, it has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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