SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Early in the run still, but I think 12z GFS will probably be colder than the 06z run. Heights are looking a bit better in E Quebec through 60 hours. Yup - better high placement. I have it out to hour 72 and it's probably 30-40 miles south of 6z with the r/s line at 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z GFS, Is a tic or two colder but similar to 06z with the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The initial thump is sort of eh. Definitely would be better if we had the high initially north of Caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pretty good thump Monday morning. Anyways...I don't think we'll see a return to the 12z Euro of yesterday...the whole thing is further north on all guidance...but we should be able to grab advisory stuff out of this I think as long as we don't see drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The initial thump is sort of eh. Definitely would be better if we had the high initially north of Caribou. Nice hole right over Weymouth, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 I def would like to see the high build a bit more west...nobody's getting more than about 7" of snow out of this unless it does....even to the north where it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice hole right over Weymouth, lol. Lock it in. Decent little event north of pike it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Any snow in December is good snow. Most everyone should see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 At least it didn't get worse. Hopefully euro is a tick colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS, Is a tic or two colder but similar to 06z with the track I think that minor tick cooler is a slight timing difference. Maybe an hour or two slower than the 6z run. I don't think the end result is really any different between the 6z run and 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: no .. i give you credit as not being "simple minded" i do, however, equally give you my sympathies for having your mind be dimmed and dumbed by this auto-pilot instant gratification technology we are submerged in.. An easy victim of which is any time one could stop to appreciate things doesn't really happen. and, it doesn't then lend to creating a mind that is pre-prepared to reading a metaphor like 'steam compared to cumulus' and so forth. it's not ur fault. people just don't read anymore - it's a shrinking preference regardless. everything is emogees and rebus' on their portable devices. Tweets? absolutely murder the virtue of poetry and creative dialogue/exchange of opine and ideas. it's a conditioning thing. if you are young, it's status quo. if you are older ..say Gen x and more, you sense a dearth in virtuosity and value in just about everything. i publish research journals and I agree with this dim view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think that minor tick cooler is a slight timing difference. Maybe an hour or two slower than the 6z run. I don't think the end result is really any different between the 6z run and 12z run. In the end down your way it was not, But up here it ended up being a tic or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Good little event for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Its looks to be a moderate event, High end advisory or low end warning depending on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GGEM isn't bad...keeps it all snow for most of SNE. But again, without that high position/strength more like we saw yesterday on the 12z suite, the amounts are relatively tame. Nothing wrong with that...still pretty early in December...but basically we should not expect more than advisory amounts with that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 And keep in mind, it's possible the high trends back a bit stronger and QPF comes back up...but I'm just describing what we see last night and this morning versus what we saw in the previous 1 or 2 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 i just i dunno i sense in between the dialogue from various posting that there is a hyper snow-focused bias... (we know this, just sayn' at times it's distracting) not sure how to help ya. if that's what you want, even at our latitude, you tend to wait awhile for purest of heart scenarios. like 2 years ago in february? fine, but that's rare. most systems, in reality, we got to go through the p-type concern one way or the other. just so long as the odor of the 'smoldering grouse' doesn't preclude apt judgement, then fine - otherwise, it's delusion. i don't want to be part of that. i think cold low levels still must win out in this... if not, it will be an interesting study for a rare warm win given the antecedent parameters. whether that means more icing, or... snow then 33.4 (which for snow geese isn't terrible because your probably not losing the 'white' you put down) and so forth, it's a relative win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS definitely improved a bit for the pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GGEM bumped north a bit but still a solid hit for all except the south coast and cape. 3-5" for most. Still pretty weak - nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ukie has a decent thump, but it looks like it might warm sector us. Though I'm skeptical of that actually happening for reasons already hashed out in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 One would think modeling would start to sense that HP as long as its in a good position and not retreating in the upcoming runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: One would think modeling would start to sense that HP as long as its in a good position and not retreating in the upcoming runs In the events that tend to over perform cold, I've usually noticed that guidance will "see" the cold airmass once we get inside of 48 hours...we see a few ticks colder before the trend levels off. This event is still hashing out the shortwave details in the plains...and that has affected the synoptics too. It is bringing it into our region from a flatter angle than previously because the shortwave is further north now. That's not as favorable for good frontogenesis as you limit the upglide across the gradient. But a few minor tweaks could make it a lot nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pelt fest for many toward the end of the frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In the events that tend to over perform cold, I've usually noticed that guidance will "see" the cold airmass once we get inside of 48 hours...we see a few ticks colder before the trend levels off. This event is still hashing out the shortwave details in the plains...and that has affected the synoptics too. It is bringing it into our region from a flatter angle than previously because the shortwave is further north now. That's not as favorable for good frontogenesis as you limit the upglide across the gradient. But a few minor tweaks could make it a lot nicer. I know when looking at the 12z GFS, It started off colder down in SNE only to end with basically the same result from 06z, But it was a couple tics colder here in the upper levels so that may be the start of modeling picking up on that colder pressing high, Something to watch over the next several cycles, I would like to see a better fronto thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 with artic air this weekend models are to fast with warn air wont happen sorry for those dont agree with that . looks good for 4/7 inches inland ct mass and sne area . I seen it to many times and didnt change or warm up like models said . looks colder storm on wed/thur storm with gfs model for sne area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 And there you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 And there you have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 ? What blizz said. He has a direct line to Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pelt fest for many toward the end of the frozen? Sounds right. Looks like 3-5 to sleet and a light glaze; wondering if icing becomes more of a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro is flatter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.