Whineminster Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I want a damaging ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is definitely a task to get some people off sim radar and QPF and focus on things that involve snow growth and all those processes we try to challenge model QPF output with. Saw some of BTV's winter workshop today, and it appears this season they'll be explicitly forecasting snow ratio grids. They have some cool tools that can blend some guidance together that looks at the max temp within the snow growth zone. So you could have 20% of a 4:1 on one model, 40% of 25:1 on another model and 40% of 12:1 on a third. End result is like a 16:1 snow ratio grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks like the 18z GFS is going to continue the amped up theme defying the rest of guidance (well except the JMA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is definitely a task to get some people off sim radar and QPF and focus on things that involve snow growth and all those processes we try to challenge model QPF output with. The best example of why is the final big storm of the '14-'15 winter. There were giant gaps in the QPF output, but the models were consistently, I believe the phrase was, "ripping a hole in the atmosphere." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Saw some of BTV's winter workshop today, and it appears this season they'll be explicitly forecasting snow ratio grids. They have some cool tools that can blend some guidance together that looks at the max temp within the snow growth zone. So you could have 20% of a 4:1 on one model, 40% of 25:1 on another model and 40% of 12:1 on a third. End result is like a 16:1 snow ratio grid. That's pretty cool. Probably word well in a place like that where higher ratio snows (both from cold and less wind) probably would work well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Definitely more juiced amped then even 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Nice front end thump here this run. Looks like even some mixing here before the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely more juiced amped then even 12z. Yeah that would flip even ORH to rain and a chunk of CNE/NNE...the 12z prob never goes to liquid over interior SNE. It's pretty easy to see the differences between the 18z GFS (12z to lesser extent) and guidance like the Euro...the shortwave is allowed to amplify so much more with the PV slightly west of the Euro position, and probably more importantly, the downstream heights in Quebec. Still skeptical though...the thing slows down a lot in the Midwest, which seems tough to do in this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's early to really be throwing around numbers anyway this early...but we're not getting double digits unless the IVT hangs back...it can happen...it did in 2008, but we'll want to wait until we are closer in before worrying about that. I'd say we have a decent shot of 2-5" right now....build that up over the weekend if need be. But man......I'd love to plant that 12z euro solution under the mistletoe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Not that it matters because it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's pretty amped up and warm on the 0z run - moreso than the 18z GFS even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Not that it matters because it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's pretty amped up and warm on the 0z run - moreso than the 18z GFS even. Might be underestimating that Canadian HP. Verbatim it is still a good front end thump before rain in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Not that it matters because it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's pretty amped up and warm on the 0z run - moreso than the 18z GFS even. I was about to post the same thing--including the "not that it matters" statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Eastern Quebec is like night and day vs the euro run from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 13 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Not that it matters because it's the 84 hour NAM, but it's pretty amped up and warm on the 0z run - moreso than the 18z GFS even. I mean, i would prefer it not be amped and warm.... but we will wait for some real guidance to roll in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nam, Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mean, i would prefer it not be amped and warm.... but we will wait for some real guidance to roll in I could deal with it as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I could deal with it as it is. Even the fabled GC would get blasted into the warm sector if the NAM verified. You don't want the NAM if you want to keep the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even the fabled GC would get blasted into the warm sector if the NAM verified. You don't want the NAM if you want to keep the snow. I'd remain confident that there would still be snow on the ground. I'm not worried about it now though As long as I can get me some qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I could deal with it as it is. I think everyone in SNE would lose whatever snow they got if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd remain confident that there would still be snow on the ground. I'm not worried about it now though As long as I can get me some qpf. Yeah probably...some matted down slush. Lol. Anyway, hopefully for the folks who want more than that after it's over, the NAM will live up to its reputation of being awful at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even the fabled GC would get blasted into the warm sector if the NAM verified. You don't want the NAM if you want to keep the snow. I always see you guys say GC?? Does that stand for Great Barrington County?? Or maybe Greenfield County?? Or maybe I'm totally frieken wrong on both those guesses lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I always see you guys say GC?? Does that stand for Great Barrington County?? Or maybe Greenfield County?? Or maybe I'm totally frieken wrong on both those guesses lol?? "God's country," meaning anywhere where the population density of cows/moose exceeds that of humans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said: "God's country," meaning anywhere where the population density of cows/moose exceeds that of humans. Lol ok that makes sense..thanks for the answer Dr Peabody:-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So before 0Z we have CMC/Euro/UKMET vs GFS/JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Cooler, maybe a bit flatter on the GFS looking at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Cooler, maybe a bit flatter on the GFS looking at H5. Still plows right into the cold minimizing wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Yeah it's def flatter. Still more amped than the euro but gonna be flatter than 18z. Maybe 12z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Decent hit in a lot of areas just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I thought it sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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