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Dec 12 Snow/ice threat


ORH_wxman

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It looks like RGEM has all of CT except the NW corner as rain by 7:00a.m., all of Mass except the western counties and extreme Northern ORH as rain by 10:00.    That may be the extent of the progression.  It appears the qpf is there, but too bad crappy snow growth is keeping us from more significant accumulations (per BOX). 

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RGEM is prob about 4-5" for ORH county and most of interior MA N and W of 495 and N of pike with prob 6-7" in Berkshires. Looks like about 2" for BOS but it's close to more. All gonna depend on that period from 09-12z. It's a quick escalation of precip. 

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59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice trends overnight...been juicing the QPF a bit up here with the strong 850mb jet getting a response on the east slopes of the Spine.

The meso-models are starting to really show the upslope/downslope couplets in NNE with strong SE flow.

IMG_3982.PNG

 

Very nice--another look.  If we can juice it up a smidge more, a couple areas in NW Mass and North Central Mass will be tickling warning criteria.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

WSW in effect. This doesn't have a huge H75-H8 warm tongue so ratios should be better than a typical SWFE. I haven't looked at BUFKIT to analyze ratios though. Maybe a 10-12:1 deal instead of 9-10:1?

The best lift tomorrow morning will be below DGZ, but it doesn't look like sand. Probably mix of flake types, with currier and ives stuff prior to the bigger lift.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The best lift tomorrow morning will be below DGZ, but it doesn't look like sand. Probably mix of flake types, with currier and ives stuff prior to the bigger lift.

That there is the difference between an advisory event and a solid warning one right there with this system--at least for down here.

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