H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think it makes a difference in central and srn CT too much since it torches 950-925. Agreed, the Waterbury BUFKIT profile shows us torched from the surface to 800 by 13z lol. I see OKX time and time again go too aggressive with their snow forecasts. I guess they just figure it's better to bust high than low for the public's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM seemed a tick colder 12z monday at the srfc which isn't a surprise. Compared to the 12z run. Has a bit of burst of snow prior to the meat of the stuff from some sort of low level stuff coming up from the south. Almost like indirect OES. NAM had it too. Yeah it dropped more snow than 12z. Pretty good thump for about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: We'll see, I don't see why the mid-levels won't warm quickly with the surface high in such a poor spot. It's been trending better each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's been trending better each run They dropped us to 2-3" now anyway so the point is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Agreed, the Waterbury BUFKIT profile shows us torched from the surface to 800 by 13z lol. I see OKX time and time again go too aggressive with their snow forecasts. I guess they just figure it's better to bust high than low for the public's sake. This always confused me, isn't busting high when you get more than you were forecast to?? And busting low is when you get less than you were forecast to?? So by OKX forecasting 5 inches, and if you get 3 inches, you busted low-right? And with them forecasting 5 inches, wouldn't there forecast bust low if you got less than 5?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: This always confused me, isn't busting high when you get more than you were forecast to?? And busting low is when you get less than you were forecast to?? So by OKX forecasting 5 inches, and if you get 3 inches, you busted low-right? And with them forecasting 5 inches, wouldn't there forecast bust low if you got less than 5?? Lol, yeah I guess you're right. I look at it the other way around because my brain is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 lol I always get confused with that too..I guess one can really look at it in reverse also, and that's what confuses me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Snow numbers coming up in MAV for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Snow numbers coming up in MAV for BOS. What's it got at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What's it got at BDL? 4 BDL/ORH/BED 2 OWD/BOS/BVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Most NH locales 4 and 4 for LA in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: 4 BDL/ORH/BED 2 OWD/BOS/BVY Nice. Seems legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 18z gfs did get a tick better. If we can get one more tick colder across the board on the 00z suite then I'd feel pretty good about advisory snow for most of BOX CWA. Only the cape and parts of the south coast I'd leave out. But I want to see one more nudge...the colder ticks have been coinciding with some better precip rates too. Increase that fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 49 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: They dropped us to 2-3" now anyway so the point is moot. thats the right play, 5" was always best case if everything breaks right max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: thats the right play, 5" was always best case if everything breaks right max. Yeah, if the GGEM scores a coup. MAV snow numbers are a 4 for DXR, OXC and MMK. I wonder how reliable they are though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Here are my latest thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z gfs did get a tick better. If we can get one more tick colder across the board on the 00z suite then I'd feel pretty good about advisory snow for most of BOX CWA. Only the cape and parts of the south coast I'd leave out. But I want to see one more nudge...the colder ticks have been coinciding with some better precip rates too. Increase that fronto. Seems like BOX is confident for an advisory; very bearish on any type of warning criteria in the CWA. Maybe I can verify without one. It's been a while....... Back at the Pit....125 miles longer and only about 45 minutes longer than one of my 'bad' Boston commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are my latest thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Thanks for the post, Ray--I'll keep my finger's crossed for the higher side of the range. BOX calling for 3-5 in my zfp. P/C has 3-5 Sunday night, additional 1-2 on Monday. Sounds like 4-6 to me, just like their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks for the post, Ray--I'll keep my finger's crossed for the higher side of the range. You look good for the high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 NAM = Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 hours ago, weathafella said: I'll stick with paying 1m and sleeping an extra 2 hours each night. I'll stick with paying $150k and commuting 25 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: NAM = Torch I'm with Tip on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: NAM = Torch Respond to my own.... Quick torch to 36z, but then shifts cooler at 39z. Maybe some sn to mix (rain for many) to snow? How much qpf would one cut from the NAM's output? It's pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 i actually thought nam was better in ct, tickles 5-6" amounts west of death valley into northern waterbury burbs into litchfield county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Overperforming fluff tomorrow evening with that deep dendritic growth layer. Lots of RH and a bit of lift. I think for most of CT we get an inch or two tomorrow evening than a quick burst of snow to freezing rain at 9z. Warm air is going to be tough to hold off down here. Thinking 1-3" for Hartford is a good bet with 3"+ right along Mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'll stick with paying $150k and commuting 25 minutes Best of all worlds! Snow too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Best of all worlds! Snow too! I'm thinking you have averaged more snow the last 2-3 years than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 00z NAM verbatim was a bit warmer, but I thought better thump too for those north of pike and inland. Also has that band streaming to the NW off the Cape..hoping to catch an inch or two from that at least. And yeah the DGZ in many areas is pretty good to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 00z NAM verbatim was a bit warmer, but I thought better thump too for those north of pike and inland. Also has that band streaming to the NW off the Cape..hoping to catch an inch or two from that at least. And yeah the DGZ in many areas is pretty good to start. At least by the qpf maps, it looks like much of CT's snow comes early in the system before things crank up (as much as they do) and the warmth creeps in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Dumb question but which site has the NAM outside 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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