CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 NAM may have been a hair cooler in the lower levels. Definitely a race between the lower level warming and bigger lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Since I get to spend over 2 hours a day sitting in stop-and-go traffic, it's more than warranted. How I love finally being able to escape that 75 minutes to the Concord rotary. What a hell that traffic is! Who the hell commutes to Boston from the pit? Seriously that's nuts! My commute is 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like NAM is a tick cooler near srfc. At this point, srfc temps and monitoring how the precip evolves are more important than parent low vs strung out low...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like NAM is a tick cooler near srfc. At this point, srfc temps and monitoring how the precip evolves are more important than parent low vs strung out low...etc. Such a great move 10 plus years ago when I moved from Newton to up here. Nice to not have to deal with coastal fronts and boundary layers. No worries about snow up here. What you say Scott, 3-6 or 4-8" type deal? Last winters biggest snowfall was 5.5". Need to beat that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Such a great move 10 plus years ago when I moved from Newton to up here. Nice to not have to deal with coastal fronts and boundary layers. No worries about snow up here. What you say Scott, 3-6 or 4-8" type deal? Last winters biggest snowfall was 5.5". Need to beat that! Newton beat that....lol....in fact my guess is Newton's best beat yours 80% of the past 10 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Such a great move 10 plus years ago when I moved from Newton to up here. Nice to not have to deal with coastal fronts and boundary layers. No worries about snow up here. What you say Scott, 3-6 or 4-8" type deal? Last winters biggest snowfall was 5.5". Need to beat that! Probably 5-7 there for now. Well you are in the land of CAD for sure. But, not the best for synoptic biggies. Still, Lakes Region in NH is the land where warm fronts come to die. That cemetery extends into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who the hell commutes to Boston from the pit? Seriously that's nuts! My commute is 15 minutes. Someone who wants a reasonable price for a house and whose spouse works in Amherst and whose daughter attends school in Greenfield. I'm heading back there now. It'll only take me 75 minutes longer than my rush-hour commute from Boston. NAM still suggests p-type issues for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Someone who wants a reasonable price for a house and whose spouse works in Amherst and whose daughter attends school in Greenfield. I'm heading back there now. It'll only take me 75 minutes longer than my rush-hour commute from Boston. NAM still suggests p-type issues for many. I'll stick with paying 1m and sleeping an extra 2 hours each night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks good to me. Should be decent event for you relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Yes...2", and I'll be happy...any more would be awesome bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...2", and I'll be happy...any more would be awesome bonus I'll take the over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the over there. Yea, 2" is the low end of my range....but I'm satisfied with that. Nice, festive event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Harvey's map has 2-5 for Ray and 1-3 for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Harvey's map has 2-5 for Ray and 1-3 for Boston. Those have been my ranges from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 EURO cut me back to 2".....had 4" at 12z yesterday, 3" at 00z last night....been trending a hair warmer each run. My guess is that trend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS (12z) and EURO are now nearly identical synoptically, but the GFS seems much more elevation dependent. Both have about 2" here, 1" in Boston......I think the correction vector here is slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS (12z) and EURO are now nearly identical synoptically, but the GFS seems much more elevation dependent. Both have about 2" here, 1" in Boston......I think the correction vector here is slightly colder. It's a really good antecedent airmass so it wouldn't surprise me if models started resisting the warm surge just a bit here. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 RGEM seemed a tick colder 12z monday at the srfc which isn't a surprise. Compared to the 12z run. Has a bit of burst of snow prior to the meat of the stuff from some sort of low level stuff coming up from the south. Almost like indirect OES. NAM had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Liking the possible oes contribution up here. Looks like a very cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a really good antecedent airmass so it wouldn't surprise me if models started resisting the warm surge just a bit here. We'll see. Agree....not worried about these unfavorable trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Christmas 1980 revisited Afternoon high in Ft. Kent was -16, spoiled by cheap 9:01 (my obs time) high. 1st Ct lake recorded a max of -24 between 7A 25th and 7A 26th. Winds were gusting into the 30s, too. \ Edit: Not sure if it made it out of the upper teens this aft, with little sun and winds gusting 20+. Wintry. GYX thinking 5-8" for areas outside of the potential mix zone along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I can't believe OKX has 5" for here. The NAM has it turning to rain at 5 am after only a few hours of steady snow. I'll eat crow if 5" verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The superior resolution of the ECMWF is very evident here with such a potent +pp in play; GFS roasts the n shore up to 38* by 12z monday, EURO has them lethargically rise to 30 at that point. I know where my money is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS again showing the race. Decent snow before the flip for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I can't believe OKX has 5" for here. The NAM has it turning to rain at 5 am after only a few hours of steady snow. I'll eat crow if 5" verifies. As Tip has been saying.. cold is way to lean with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I can't believe OKX has 5" for here. The NAM has it turning to rain at 5 am after only a few hours of steady snow. I'll eat crow if 5" verifies. rgem says its close along 84 in wct. 5" is the max though, 2/3" is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 But if you correct for NAM and think perhaps models are a bit too warm, even being an hour can be an inch or more difference of snow. I don't think anything changed inland. We know models tend to correct a tiny bit near the surface. I'm hoping for 2" in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As Tip has been saying.. cold is way to lean with this 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem says its close along 84 in wct. We'll see, I don't see why the mid-levels won't warm quickly with the surface high in such a poor spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: We'll see, I don't see why the mid-levels won't warm quickly with the surface high in such a poor spot. I don't think it makes a difference in central and srn CT too much since it torches 950-925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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