HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand Nobody should be b!tching if that verifies. I'm a little surprised they have a probabilities map posted this far out in time. 48 hours maybe but 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 What the heck did the nws do to their site? It takes forever to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z GFS a hair stronger and a little north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:39 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nobody should be b!tching if that verifies. I'm a little surprised they have a probabilities map posted this far out in time. 48 hours maybe but 72? Expand Done by their best met too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:46 PM, dryslot said: 18z GFS a hair stronger and a little north of 12z Expand Confluence is definitely north. Not what I wanted to see down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:47 PM, JC-CT said: Confluence is definitely north. Not what I wanted to see down here. Expand That's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Yeah heights definitely higher ahead of the low at 18z. Pretty good model battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Done by their best met too Expand This will be a good opening salvo for winter 16-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:47 PM, JC-CT said: Confluence is definitely north. Not what I wanted to see down here. Expand Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares Expand I do? Unless you are hoping to start out as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:53 PM, JC-CT said: I do? Unless you are hoping to start out as sleet. Expand It's the 18z GFS . its not factored in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It's the 18z GFS . its not factored in Expand I didn't say I think it will verify like that. I just said it didn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z definitely trended warmer. That's a bit discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:55 PM, CT Rain said: 18z definitely trended warmer. That's a bit discouraging. Expand Who cares? Kevin locked in 5" already. We good. You can probably put out a map now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:55 PM, CT Rain said: 18z definitely trended warmer. That's a bit discouraging. Expand Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I don't know how you discount the GFS, Its not the Nam and is in the realm of possibility's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:57 PM, dryslot said: I don't know how you discount the GFS, Its not the Nam and is in the realm of possibility's Expand Of course you like the GFS .its better for you . Considering it's alone.. I don't think it's factorable. But maybe it is . I just don't see any support for amped up north into strong confluence as Tip has said all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:57 PM, dryslot said: I don't know how you discount the GFS, Its not the Nam and is in the realm of possibility's Expand Yeah it should be factored in...I'd weight it less than the Euro since it's an inferior model and the Euro does have support from GGEM. But it's within the envelope of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Of course you like the GFS .its better for you . Considering it's alone.. I don't think it's factorable. But maybe it is . I just don't see any support for amped up north into strong confluence as Tip has said all day Expand As well as you like the Euro for your area, You cant just toss them if you don't like it, Not how it works, Its guidance and like i said its solution is not out of the realm of possibility's and i did not say to lock it in, Just what the model shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I can't see how the Euro doesn't have the midweek storm with there being an extratropical low pressure system centered at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it should be factored in...I'd weight it less than the Euro since it's an inferior model and the Euro does have support from GGEM. But it's within the envelope of solutions. Expand Exactly, You place more weight on one side or the other, If you end up with a middle ground solution between the two, Then its a 3-6, 4-8" snow in the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:04 PM, dryslot said: As well as you like the Euro for your area, You cant just toss them if you don't like it, Not how it works, Its guidance and like i said its solution is not out of the realm of possibilitys Expand Maybe . But seeing the NAM shift confluence 50 miles south and knowing the GFS warm bias at eroding cold.. well you can color me tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe . But seeing the NAM shift confluence 50 miles south and knowing the GFS warm bias at eroding cold.. well you can color me tossed Expand And do as you want, I'm sure the NWS and all mets did not throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe . But seeing the NAM shift confluence 50 miles south and knowing the GFS warm bias at eroding cold.. well you can color me tossed Expand Well... the NAM was a warm outlier but the NAM/GFS right now are definitely warm and also a lot of the high res stuff is toasty. I don't think you can see it's garbage - it's just another possibility. The ECMWF hasn't been steadfast with this snowy solution either - it's had its issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:10 PM, CT Rain said: Well... the NAM was a warm outlier but the NAM/GFS right now are definitely warm and also a lot of the high res stuff is toasty. I don't think you can see it's garbage - it's just another possibility. The ECMWF hasn't been steadfast with this snowy solution either - it's had its issues. Expand Hi res at 48-54 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 There was a 1" difference for this area from the GFS and Euro runs today, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:34 PM, JC-CT said: Plus, the drugs BOS gets nothing on the latest RGEM either. Bummer Expand hahaha yeah...actually i was just being goofy with metaphors in the original passage but since it garnered so my backlash i decided to push back and start fights - evil i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 9:39 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nobody should be b!tching if that verifies. I'm a little surprised they have a probabilities map posted this far out in time. 48 hours maybe but 72? Expand i think that's about a good call actually from what i've been seeing anyway. straight up qpf + experience in this sort of thing, together flag that. but we'll see.. and, ironically, despite the inherent problems with this sort of pattern, it's actually pretty stable in the guidance of an low-end event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/9/2016 at 10:35 PM, dryslot said: There was a 1" difference for this area from the GFS and Euro runs today, lol Expand For us and you, I figure this is a 4-6" snowfall. I'm looking forward to it - was gone early in the week so missed the 3"er. Just seems like one of those types of snows where we get a nice steady moderate snow, with a heavy period for 6-10 hours. At least that's how it feels to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nothing for James and I...hoping to at least get some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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