UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GEFS are still fairly snowy 3-6" for most, further north more snow obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 NWS is tossing GFS/Nam solution, and going with euro/ukmet/ggem blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Zonal flow sets up aloft Saturday night, and with no shortwaves forecast to be embedded in the flow, it should be dry. Lows Saturday night were based on a blend of MAV/MET guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures and should be around 5 degrees below normal. For Sunday-Monday night the models are coming into better agreement that fast zonal flow will produce a weaker/flatter (more sheared) system moving in from the Intermountain West starting Sunday morning. The reduced amplification will result in weaker warm advection ahead of the system, with the warm front now likely staying S of Long Island through the event, with a secondary low tracking to the S of Long Island along the front. Northern stream ridging ahead of the system will support the forming of a high over SE Canada which should server as a source for low level cold air by Monday (NE- E flow over the region - typical of a cold air damming pattern). In terms of sensible weather, the aforementioned shortwave ridging passing to the north Sunday should hold off anything other than very light precipitation into Sunday afternoon - with snow across the interior and rain elsewhere. The precipitation will become more widespread and steady Sunday night and should chance to all snow from N to S Sunday evening across the Tri-State. Snow continues into Monday, with precipitation mixing with then changing to rain over Long Island and at least Southern portions of NYC and maybe coastal SW CT Monday morning and then to all rain Monday afternoon, except for maybe far Northern portions of the CWA where a rain/snow mix could linger. Precipitation should taper off from W to E Monday night as the low exits to the southeast of Cape Cod mainly as Snow N of Long Island Sound and Rain to the south. Forecast discussion from NWS ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Sunday 18z snow begins to expand over Midwest, and western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z Monday, light snow into the area, mix line well south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 This run looks like it will be colder, same time from compared to 12z 0c line went from central jersey to south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Light/mod snow continues into 06z, central jersey to just south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Mix issues on euro south of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euros cutting like GFS, 850s crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1-2 NYC 3-5 rockland to 84 4-6 north of 84 Not good sign if euro moves toward GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1-2 NYC 3-5 rockland to 84 4-6 north of 84 Not good sign if euro moves toward GFS Whats the ice potential like? Quick look at the GFS looks like some nasty spots in central PA...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Not the way I wanted to end the night Your still 6" in New Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Tibet said: Whats the ice potential like? Quick look at the GFS looks like some nasty spots in central PA...? 850s crash all the way to Albany, unless your over 1200+ feet I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Your still 6" in New Windsor I'll sign for that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 I think a changeover is inevitable with this set-up no matter where you are in this sub... however I also think the interior holds on long enough to produce low end warning level snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850s crash all the way to Albany, unless your over 1200+ feet I doubt it Thanks, snow or rain... would rather nothing if ice is in the playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: Thanks, snow or rain... would rather nothing if ice is in the playbook. Snow to rain central Pa, depending on location 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euros OTS with coastal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850s crash all the way to Albany, unless your over 1200+ feet I doubt it Crash means collapse southward...do you mean something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Pamela said: Now that was some winter! The incredible inaugural storm in January, the blizzard in February...and this was all preceded by the Great Blizzard of March 1960....4 storms in 11 months. And was it ever cold from January into early February! I'll never forget the silly inconsistency in that film Born on the 4th of July (near the start of the movie) where it shows a pleasant day (with leaves on the trees) in Massapequa, Long Island while the family is watching the Kennedy Inauguration live on TV. In truth, there was a roaring blizzard going on here (and in the District of Columbia) that day...though it was mainly over in DC by the time the proceedings were under way. January 1961 Poughkeepsie set their all time record low of -30. Legend around here was people woke up to gun shots heard all around the area that turned out to be the sap freezing in some of the maple trees. I've never verified those stories but those temperatures would make it possible. NYC had 16 straight days of sub freezing in January 1961 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Not going to lie but the model trends are frustrating. Nothing worse than freezing cold then rain in a repeat fashion. I remember the late 80s and this was it. Hopefully 12z changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 hours ago, BxEngine said: Crash means collapse southward...do you mean something else? This will be either snow or rain. The High is very weak now and with little cad for area to hold onto ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This will be either snow or rain. The High is very weak now and with little cad for area to hold onto ice Each model run has been less snow each run . What once showed me as 8 is now showing 2. Each run it gets less and less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 OKX has posted the likely min/max snowfall for this event. Likely seems reasonable to me. This is not looking like it will be the CPs first plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 hours ago, BxEngine said: Crash means collapse southward...do you mean something else? Yes, sorry 2am.... my point was they warm quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 First freeze of the year in the Bronx. 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Latest from upton A broad rain or snow approach was used in the forecast. Significant snowfall is most likely across the northern and western interior, even if there is indeed a changeover in those area. As a result, the Hazardous Weather Outlook will include Orange county in a 6 inch snowfall risk. The precipitation may change back to a snow, again depending on track which means the dry slot in this case, at the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nam has the high over Canada stronger and about 700 miles east of where it's been on GFS/Nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Low placement looks relatively unchanged so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 This looks like a quick snow to rain scenario for the coast and some accumulating snow for the interior unless the precip comes in faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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