brooklynwx99 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looks less amped through 72 hr: 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: From what I can tell so far, the high is much better position than 18z Irrelevant when you have a low west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: What's in favor of a snowstorm? Euro and CMC(which 2 runs ago was bleak)? Teleconnections aren't bad or good fresh Arctic air decent high in place ( on some models) other than the 2 models you mentioned nav gem, eps, etc plus we most likely get a decent front end dump. Sure we may get nothing but using the reasoning of the gfs and the out of range nam isn't a great argument. Just need to wait a big imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS is less amped and weaker but the track is up into Mi. This pumps the southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Seems like game over on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z still not gonna get it done, another cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, snow1 said: Seems like game over on this storm. Nothing has changed... GFS has been a cutter...4 entire days till storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 About a inch of snow for the metro and 2-4 north and west before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 By hr 90 it's raining up into southeast Maine. Even orh and bos is raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z 00z nearly identical snowfall... nothing has changed, GFS just maintained itself from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Toronto goes to rain and this is a "decent" synoptic setup? Cmon guys, writing is on the wall you might get an inch or two before 850s torch to +4 and surface goes 40+ even in the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Some portions of the interior actually improved this run, especially far N+W, areas like Sullivan Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GGEM looks flat so far, nothing like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem pushes snow in between 00z-06z Monday, everyone's snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 NYC will do very will run, moderate snow falling Monday morning commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem just may fringe the northern burbs wow NNJ to NYC looks like the sweet spot on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Toronto goes to rain and this is a "decent" synoptic setup? Cmon guys, writing is on the wall you might get an inch or two before 850s torch to +4 and surface goes 40+ even in the LHV. Agree. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem is 3-6" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The first wave was locking this in earlier. Now the first wave completely dissipates which allows the second to hook to the left and this should effectively take all or certainly most of us over to rain after a period of snow and possibly some sleet. I suspect that the models which are still flatter/colder will eventually catch onto this idea as well. Am I sure? No. Can this change? Yes. We'll see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 For now, I'd say 2-4/3-6 is the safest bet front end with the possibility of a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem is 3-6" for most Not impossible for that to actually happen but at this point, I'd be a little surprised. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem is 3-6" for most 5 inches for the city. Suffolk is on the rain side, as is Lakewood, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Not impossible for that to actually happen but at this point, I'd be a little surprised. WX/PT The question marks on the city and immediate burbs at this point, north of 84, 2-5" is pretty much unanimous between all models, obviously there's alot time left and it can change for Better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem gives the LHV another 4-6" wed also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The question marks on the city and immediate burbs at this point, north of 84, 2-5" is pretty much unanimous between all models, obviously there's alot time left and it can change for Better or worse Oh yes, north of 84, north of Albany, yes, those areas can hang on to whatever they start out with (snow) considerably longer. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'd also like to note the GFS and ggem track are similar, however GGEM, is less amplified, a tad slower, and 850s are much colder for longer the GFS even outdoes the NAM on speed, which is unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, Pamela said: December 11 -12 are always good days astronomically for snow around here..two of the best autumn snow days that come to mind. The 12/11/82 storm ("Snow Plow" game at Foxboro) stands out as a good example. December 11-12th, 1960...17" in Battery Park...true blizzard...Still my favorite storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Pamela said: Now that was some winter! The incredible inaugural storm in January, the blizzard in February...and this was all preceded by the Great Blizzard of March 1960....4 storms in 11 months. And was it ever cold from January into early February! I'll never forget the silly inconsistency in that film Born on the 4th of July (near the start of the movie) where it shows a pleasant day (with leaves on the trees) in Massapequa, Long Island while the family is watching the Kennedy Inauguration live on TV. In truth, there was a roaring blizzard going on here that day. between March 3rd 1960 and Feb. 4th 1961 NYC got four blizzards and a major hurricane...The only year that comes close is 2009-2011... six storms in 14 months in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 36 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The question marks on the city and immediate burbs at this point, north of 84, 2-5" is pretty much unanimous between all models, obviously there's alot time left and it can change for Better or worse The interior should do well whether this cuts or slides underneath. CAD is a beautiful thing and usually under modeled on the GFS. 3-6" isn't a bad call right now for areas 40+ miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I like where the interior sits at the moment. After the last few winters of pulling teeth for every tenth of an inch of liquid, I'll gladly roll the dice with p-type. We talked about that so much in the HV thread that it almost became a meme, but it really is true. Agreed.. Last few winters it was never a matter of it being cold enough it was could we get precip far enough north. Ill take my chances with p-type as long as the precip is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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