dmillz25 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I don't think with this fast flow it will cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's your thoughts? Every other models trended flatter except GFS? Honestly I don't take anything the 18z GFS shows seriously. It is odd however that it's showing an amped up cutter. The GFS normally has a known progressive bias. I would have expected an outlier OTS run from the 18z, not this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's your thoughts? Every other models trended flatter except GFS? Its the 18z gfs against the rest of the models. i think it comes back to a flatter look at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Honestly I don't take anything the 18z GFS shows seriously. It is odd however that it's showing an amped up cutter. The GFS normally has a known progressive bias. I would have expected an outlier OTS run from the 18z, not this It really didn't change much from its 12z run, maybe it's gonna play late to the party... 12z cut but wasn't as strong allowing for more front end, interior is still 3-6"...6-8" higher elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don't think the GFS has ever been correct when it comes in more west than all the other models. It only scores coups when it's further east than Euro like January 2015. Which would play into the euros western bias... idc what anyone says about upgrades, we've seen it since... and the fact the euro is zonal in opposition to GFS makes me think the GFS is playing catch-up... however... if and IF this does happen, credit should really be given to ggem, its wavered a few times, but was the first to see the weaker flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 40 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It really didn't change much from its 12z run, maybe it's gonna play late to the party... 12z cut but wasn't as strong allowing for more front end, interior is still 3-6"...6-8" higher elevation When that warm front gets here, you'll need about twice the altitude of the highest Catskills peak to get above the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: When that warm front gets here, you'll need about twice the altitude of the highest Catskills peak to get above the warm layer Didn't look too in depth, so your probably right But isn't most of the front end dump already done by the time that warm pushes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Didn't look too in depth, so your probably right But isn't most of the front end dump already done by the time that warm pushes? A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away. Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away. Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days... I'll take Ill fate.... boost my totals... Gefs don't look so hot, with that strong of a cutter though I didn't expect to be far off from the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Srefs are flat like euro/ggem, GFS/Gefs alone so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 What do plumes show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The latter. What's the point of getting 6" of snow that literally last minutes before its reduced to 5 then 4 then nothing. Snow to rain is the worst. I would literally take 3" of arctic snow on a cold December day that coats everything and lasts for a week than 10" of concrete that gets reduced to plow piles in hours. Never move to the south shore then. We might get a couple of inches from what comes Monday, but it'll almost certainly be gone by the end. I've never liked these SWFE storms-they're New England and upstate NY focused. Boston should get a nice event. They cashed in over and over again in 2007-08 and 2008-09 from these while NYC largely got slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away. Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days... I'd rather be able to look at it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Didn't look too in depth, so your probably right But isn't most of the front end dump already done by the time that warm pushes? If you have true arctic air in place at the boundary layer with low dew points/dry air, if you get a decent strength warm low level jet advecting moisture up from the advancing warm front over the cold dome, usually produces quite a bit of snow at rapid rates over a short time and the start times are almost always earlier than expected. Usually you get a decent thump before the mid-levels get destroyed and then you go over to sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 20 minutes ago, Pamela said: Mildly curious about the precise amount of snow that fell at Logan Airport during 2008-09...I visited the Taunton website. Much to my dismay, a once splendid repository of climate data had not only become unnavigable; but it had been dumbed down to a level of indecipherability rare even in these times. Here's to you NWS web re-designer; now that's what I call progress! Edit: Seems the problems not confined to Taunton page; OKX page has been similarly "improved"...they once had 15 years of Public Information Statements keying in on every storm event in the CWA; that page has been truncated down to just the last 2 years...though it has been amply replaced by a bunch of utterly useless graphics that would not give anyone insight on how to escape from a paper bag. It is akin to calling "customer service" for some particular problem you might be having; the menu affords you every single option except for the one that you need! Boston had 65.6" of snow in 2008-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, Pamela said: Thnxs. I would probably have more luck searching Am WX (or even my own list of old posts!) than to try to find that data at the BOX website! Without going too far OT: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box go to the tab "now data" on the right. Then select "monthly summarized data". Choose snowfall as the variable and for start year type in "por" (stands for period of record). I was wrong on my earlier estimate. It was 65.9" and not 65.6". Tho don't necessarily trust all the data in there. ORH is a disaster for many of the 1995-2004 years. Anyways to stay on topic, I'd obviously want latitude in this storm. You'd typically feel decent if you were in the far NNJ zones up into Hudson valley. NYC may struggle in this setup unless we can get maybe a slightly colder version of the euro. Not impossible but work to do to get that. Having the main vortmax pass west of the region is typically not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Without going too far OT: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box go to the tab "now data" on the right. Then select "monthly summarized data". Choose snowfall as the variable and for start year type in "por" (stands for period of record). I was wrong on my earlier estimate. It was 65.9" and not 65.6". Tho don't necessarily trust all the data in there. ORH is a disaster for many of the 1995-2004 years. Anyways to stay on topic, I'd obviously want latitude in this storm. You'd typically feel decent if you were in the far NNJ zones up into Hudson valley. NYC may struggle in this setup unless we can get maybe a slightly colder version of the euro. Not impossible but work to do to get that. Having the main vortmax pass west of the region is typically not good. Thank you for your input. To be honest I just want to get on the board I'll take whatever I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 35 minutes ago, Pamela said: Gee, could they make it any simpler? One would think they are hiding the Wealth of the Indies in there; rather than some rather pedestrian snow records that are putatively in the public domain. Moreover, the data I did uncover subsequent to unveiling layer upon layer of cyber-mortar was limited to the interval from 1999 to the present; hardly affording one a complete portrait of the snow climatology at Logan Field. However I do thank you for your earnest effort to guide me in the right direction; Columbo himself would have been hard pressed to solve this case! You would think they could just put a simple link on Page One of the Climate Data: Boston Monthly Snowfall Chart! Oh how I loathe the 21st century...only good things about it are Wikipedia, YouTube, & useful hyperlinks.... this site might help... http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Coastal Fairfield County in CT did well also in 2008 2009 with 42 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 FWIW, Tail end of Nam is worse than GFS Ptype issues even for burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 NAM says game over for everyone. This is looking increasingly DOA, even for those to the north. 850s torch quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: FWIW, Tail end of Nam is worse than GFS Ptype issues even for burbs Assuming you mean at onset of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM says game over for everyone. This is looking increasingly DOA, even for those to the north. 850s torch quickly. Lmao it's still not in range give it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Ericjcrash said: NAM says game over for everyone. This is looking increasingly DOA, even for those to the north. 850s torch quickly. So because the 18z gfs and the h 72 nam say it's over really? lol guess the dgex showing a cold storm is just as good as an argument. Let's at least wait til tomorrow at oz before making declarations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 I wouldn't take the 84hr Nam serious, just saying it's lining up with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Let's see what the realistic 00z suites say before we hop on the 84hr Nam bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I like where the interior sits at the moment. After the last few winters of pulling teeth for every tenth of an inch of liquid, I'll gladly roll the dice with p-type. We talked about that so much in the HV thread that it almost became a meme, but it really is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 48 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: So because the 18z gfs and the h 72 nam say it's over really? lol guess the dgex showing a cold storm is just as good as an argument. Let's at least wait til tomorrow at oz before making declarations What's in favor of a snowstorm? Euro and CMC(which 2 runs ago was bleak)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 From what I can tell so far, the high is much better position than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z Sunday 1005mb over OK light snow breaks out across Midwest and western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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