UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Ggem is cold, 5-8"+ for most this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GGEM looks a lot like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 A lot of QPF to go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Ggem follows this up with another light snow event wed...8-12" for most between both events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z GGEM Yea it's very odd, my wxbell surface map had it changing over and the LP slipping all the way up to Plattsburgh, taking a look at 850s now that they loaded, anyone north of rockland county should stay all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think 850's sky-rocket once most of the precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I think 850's sky-rocket once most of the precip is over They crash actually once precip is over, but they're marginal from rockland south on the tail end of precip.. anyone north of that has nothing to worry about on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: They crash actually once precip is over, but they're marginal from rockland south on the tail end of precip.. anyone north of that has nothing to worry about on ggem I meant between 12Z Monday and 18Z Monday when precip becomes lighter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 UKmet is weak and not as amped as the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: UKmet is weak and not as amped as the gfs GFS ensembles may come in flatter. UKMET/Euro are somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: GFS ensembles may come in flatter. UKMET/Euro are somewhat similar. Correct me if Im wrong, we want a flatter solution so long as it is to our south to guarantee an all snow solution in KNYC? GFS current solution would be kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Correct me if Im wrong, we want a flatter solution so long as it is to our south to guarantee an all snow solution in KNYC? GFS current solution would be kiss of death. Current GFS is still not terrible, advisory snows for NYC, and warning for burbs, but yes a flatter weaker solution is what we want, too much amplification and it cuts through lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS has a coastal for wed/Thursday, while ggem has another cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: What's the GEFS showing? Most members look like op, strong amplified solution cutting into lakes/western NY, front end dump varies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS has a coastal for wed/Thursday, while ggem has another cutter No matter how you slice it, we cant get too greedy, we average less than 6 inchesin December anyway. Once we get the cold in the mix not everything that comes our way will be Miller A or B. This is a far FAR superior pattern to last year's December. So long as we have chances we cant really ask for more. The Euro Monthlies flipping is alos a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 >3" probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: No matter how you slice it, we cant get too greedy, we average less than 6 inchesin December anyway. Once we get the cold in the mix not everything that comes our way will be Miller A or B. This is a far FAR superior pattern to last year's December. So long as we have chances we cant really ask for more. The Euro Monthlies flipping is alos a good sign Anything above 1" in NYC would be considered a good outcome compared to the last 5 Decembers. 2011...0 2012...0.4 2013...8.6 2014...1.0 2015...T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Negligible changes on euro so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 00z Sunday light snow into the area. Doesn't look like it will be as amped as the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This is the kind of pattern that interior can do better than the coast for a change. Definitely favors the interior, but we got 7.5" out of the 12/19/08 event, including 1.5" "bonus snows" during the day on the 20th. Better example of an interior winter was the one before that, which was huge up north and almost absent down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 00z Sunday light snow into the area. Doesn't look like it will be as amped as the gfs. Looks slightly more amped from 00z run however, have to see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Classics swfe on the euro. We should pound Monday morning for a time per the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Definitely favors the interior, but we got 7.5" out of the 12/19/08 event, including 1.5" "bonus snows" during the day on the 20th. Better example of an interior winter was the one before that, which was huge up north and almost absent down here. Hard to say whether the next few storms will be representative of the winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks slightly more amped from 00z run however, have to see where it goes Yep. Rain/snow line around ttn Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Suburbs doing well Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hard to say whether the next few storms will be representative of the winter yet. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Gonna be a sharp cutoff around NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Interior has 2-4" on ground by Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 a nice storm for Hudson valley on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.