UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Based on temp profiles and precip not snow maps, I'd say: NYC- 5-9" LI north -5-9" LI south-4-6" NNJ-6-10" Hudson valley- 6-10" ( less once ur past Ulster, and east of Hudson) more towards EPA or NNJ NEPA- 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro folds to the GFS Nice little snowstorm for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: Number #1 analog so far is 12/19/08. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016120800&dt=2008122006 I'm pretty sure I brought that up a few days ago as something that could happen in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 EPS is 5-8+ for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Number #1 analog so far is 12/19/08. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016120800&dt=2008122006 Once again that slight troughing out in the Pacific Northwest. That's usually needed in any sort of SWFE type system to get better snows into the NYC or even PHL area because it prevents the system from overamping or even dampens it vs SWFEs that have ridging out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Although it's well Out of range, this should be our first NAM run giving us an idea where it wants to set up, 06z was hinting at some impressive WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Number #1 analog so far is 12/19/08. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016120800&dt=2008122006 8.5" here for that one, part of a month that produced close to 18" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 With a de-amplified shortwave resulting ina more zonal solution, and a H sitting heavy over New Brunswick, I'm not convinced this still doesn't come south, and spring a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 52 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: 8.5" here for that one, part of a month that produced close to 18" IMBY This is the kind of pattern that interior can do better than the coast for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Albany's take... Quote Some light rain may mix in south of the Capital Region as the boundary layer warms. Overall...could be seeing at least a few inches of snowfall /2-4 inches/ across most the region late Sunday through Monday. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with upper 20s to upper 30s on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The nam is insanely far north with the first wave at 72-84. Prior to last year that was usually a toss, but with some upgrades the nam appeared better last winter. If it was amped up at 72-84 it often was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The nam is insanely far north with the first wave at 72-84. Prior to last year that was usually a toss, but with some upgrades the nam appeared better last winter. If it was amped up at 72-84 it often was correct Idk, 2 days ago the Nam overamped the shortwave associated with tomorrow's front, and dropped a stretch of 2-4" of snow across the interior nam showed this 2 days ago for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS generally unchanged through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Hair south and slightly more amped than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Precip breaking out over Ohio valley /Midwest 00z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Light snow into area by 00z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Def a stronger solution this run, expansive precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 City's gonna have Ptype issues this run, stronger solution, cutting through IL, have to see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 994 lake cutter, most in this forum have ptype issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Problem was nearly 20mb stronger than 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Def a stronger solution this run, expansive precip shield More precip, but the SW being stronger on this run is going to screw areas south of the hudson valley with warmer BL as well as surface temps. Let's see how the subsequent system plays out. edit... not just the hudson valley, most of NE actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, mikemost said: More precip, but the SW being stronger on this run is going to screw areas south of the hudson valley with warmer BL as well as surface temps. Let's see how the subsequent system plays out. Even the Hudson valley isn't safe with this solution, anything that dumps is washed away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 993 over Plattsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Even the Hudson valley isn't safe with this solution, anything that dumps is washed away Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 In reality, we dump hard in the beginning, if this solution plays out, it's not worse case senario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 that's an odd distribution of snowfall-can't remember seeing a map like that before....basically east to west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 06 snowfall totals, not that far from 12z, different solution, interior actually does slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GGEM appears to be weaker than 00z through 18z Monday, haha model Mayhem at its finest, I don't believe we're gonna have a lock on this till the frontal boundary passes through tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Moderate snow by 12z is in the area monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 3-6" on the ground for most by 12z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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