snowman19 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: That may be true, but thats not what i asked. Can you show maps of the euro vs the gfs and explain why the euro is more likely to be correct? The GFS has a stretched out piece of energy unlike what the Euro does with it with the stronger shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has a stretched out piece of energy unlike what the Euro does with it with the stronger shortwave That doesn't explain anything though except what it's showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves You sure? euro Gfs Ggem euros the outlier, amplified shortwave and holding energy back west... seem biased to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Overamping isn't the problem. 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has a stretched out piece of energy unlike what the Euro does with it with the stronger shortwave I see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: How can you possibly know that as fact? Literally curious... has there even been enough anologs and samples to draw hat conclusion? Those were well known Euro biases and were specifically addressed by ECMWF when they did the new upgrades to that model. Their scientists have produced a vastly superior model than the American and Canadian model suites for all these years. I trust them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut I think you generally see some sort of cutting, but the pattern overall I don't think supports something as strong and amped as the Euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 NAO looks to be negative during this timeframe then go positive around the 15th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Never trust europran scientists...talk about bias...lol The new Euro has not really been around long enough yet to know what its issues are. Last winter though and to an extent this summer I did notice three things. A tendency for bigger run to run fluctuations inside 144 hours that the old Euro did not have. A tendency to overamp between 72-144 hours. A tendency to suppress or be too dry inside 48-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Shows a snowstorm for me How does it look for us from I-84 northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, snywx said: How does it look for us from I-84 northward 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 WAA snows look good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 General 1-2" drops across most of the area Sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z not gonna get it done for us, coastal pushes right off coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: And lucky it's an 18z run Still printing out but looking at 500 and surface, we may see that coastal come west for Wednesday EDIT: it came west alright, cuts the system north of our area for wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Really need the 850 low further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 It's been said before, but the upper flow is fast and riddled with little shortwaves zipping along. It could be several days before the models hone in on which impulse, if any, amplifies enough to support a storm. Verbatim on the GFS, the focus seems to be on Wednesday, but check out those height falls... I would think you run the risk of such strong CAA putting the kibosh on any significant cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z GEFS is flatter and colder than the 12z GEFS for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Not being a weenie, just bored in between runs... NAVGEM has coastal for next week, crushes immediate burbs JMA cuts like euro also: a good amount of EPS ensembles have the Tuesday event as a coastal instead of cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS already looks better for Monday, expansive precip shield on the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Light snow into the area for all 12z Monday with LP over Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 This is gonna be a nice run, light to moderate snow 18z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Secondary takes over and scoots out 00z Tuesday, still light/mod snow falling, looking at 850 NYC north stays all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This is gonna be a nice run, light to moderate snow 18z monday Yeah, nice rin for you, city S&E quickly flips over. Mid 30s and rain. Step in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Secondary takes over and scoots out 00z Tuesday, still light/mod snow falling, looking at 850 NYC north stays all snow Yeah, its closer for the City than originally thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, nice rin for you, city S&E quickly flips over. Mid 30s and rain. Step in the right direction though. Ignore those graphics dude... 850s are 0 to -5 even for NYC, you guys are frozen throughout, especially if rates stay decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, its closer for the City than originally thought All snow my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ignore those graphics dude... 850s are 0 to -5 even for NYC, you guys are frozen throughout, especially if rates stay decent Yeah, it's actually a pretty sweet run for most people. Jump toward 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Warning snow for burbs, ignore the light accumulation around city, your all snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looking good once again for areas N of the city. 0z GFS @ 111hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: Looking good once again for areas N of the city. 0z GFS @ 111hrs Followed up by an ugly cutter, but we've seen this change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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