SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I agree, this is not coming south of Orange/Rockland for anything more than 1-2 btw have you looked at current temps compared to modeled? overperforming cold out there tonight This is the optimal setup ahead of a system. Clear for most of the night then clouding over late in time for morning so that you get maximum radiational cooling and then little heating the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the optimal setup ahead of a system. Clear for most of the night then clouding over late in time for morning so that you get maximum radiational cooling and then little heating the next day. These northern lows, are 5-10+ below what currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 In case anyone was curious GGEM drops 3-4" in NYC at 12:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: In case anyone was curious GGEM drops 3-4" in NYC at 12:1 ratios Ill stick to my 2-4 for the city metro and 4-8 anywhere north of white plains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 true tell tale signs of a possible overperformer from what models showed early on are tanking temps, nose of incoming system diving south, & 2nd vort slower behind parent vort in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 51 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the optimal setup ahead of a system. Clear for most of the night then clouding over late in time for morning so that you get maximum radiational cooling and then little heating the next day. Yeah, let all the heat out, then trap in the cold with clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The snow has changed to sleet and now sleet/rain all the way up here in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 ^back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: ^back to snow What's your temp? And how close to the lake are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What's your temp? And how close to the lake are you? North/northeast of Lake Erie and South/southwest on Lake Ontario. 28 degrees. There's a SSW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: North/northeast of Lake Erie and South/southwest on Lake Ontario. 28 degrees. There's a SSW wind. Looks nice at the bills game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks nice at the bills game snow globe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 hmm that snow shield is incoming towards n.y.c,some would say it's going to get snowy pretty soon. also my temp barely made above freezing here in the northern bronx and the dp is in the lower teens,unless we get a mega torch going i don't see a rapid changeover tonight..cold air seems to hold it's ground for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: hmm that snow shield is incoming towards n.y.c,some would say it's going to get snowy pretty soon. also my temp barely made above freezing here in the northern bronx and the dp is in the lower teens,unless we get a mega torch going i don't see a rapid changeover tonight..cold air seems to hold it's ground for most of the event. you will be dissapointed if you think the cold air is going to lock in with this system. It is going to warm up very fast overnight when the low level jet starts to crank. The surface high is still just offshore, and once it moves further east the southerly flow will help to warm things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: hmm that snow shield is incoming towards n.y.c,some would say it's going to get snowy pretty soon. also my temp barely made above freezing here in the northern bronx and the dp is in the lower teens,unless we get a mega torch going i don't see a rapid changeover tonight..cold air seems to hold it's ground for most of the event. It's WAA....it'll change quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: hmm that snow shield is incoming towards n.y.c,some would say it's going to get snowy pretty soon. also my temp barely made above freezing here in the northern bronx and the dp is in the lower teens,unless we get a mega torch going i don't see a rapid changeover tonight..cold air seems to hold it's ground for most of the event. There is nothing to hold your cold air in at the surface. The surface high is off shore now and return flow out of the south is starting. The midlevels are going to warm in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Virga? Any reports of that reaching the ground in eastern PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Virga? Any reports of that reaching the ground in eastern PA? So far nada here, but I am only just now getting under returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 30/21 here... Not as dry as I thought it was gonna be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Snowing lightly here and has been for about half an hour. Early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Flurries now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 According to some tweets I just saw it's just starting to snow in eastern PA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: According to some tweets I just saw it's just starting to snow in eastern PA now Thats earlier than I would have expected given the current dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 ore widespread Light snow moving in http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Thats earlier than I would have expected given the current dew points The mid and lower levels are not that dry though. Ceilings already down into the 4-5,000 foot range into NYC. It may start reaching the ground relatively soon everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Thats earlier than I would have expected given the current dew points Its not that dry out.. I have very light snow falling here w/ a temp of 29° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The latest HRRR shows this as a mainly rain event for everyone south of Orange County. Barely any snow accumulation. Here is what Joe Cioffi has to say, he just updated less than 10 minutes ago: " Snow Unimpressive On Radar You only have to take a look at the radar to see how unimpressive the snow is at the moment. If this remains the case, and latest short range models say it will be, the snow totals will be little along the coast and maybe a coating to an inch or two well inland. Even there it might be a struggle. The lead snow ahead of the warm front is just not developing at all. Dry air ahead of it seems to be killing it off. When the main moisture arrives later tonight it will be warm enough for mostly rain along the coast and maybe a quick burst of snow inland before changing to rain. We will just monitor the radar going forward to see if there are any changes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Very light snow on top of Washington Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very light snow on top of Washington Rock Nice, still cloudy about 250 feet lower in scotch plains right off 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Snow has picked up to light snow. 30F. looks like a nice band forming just west of Warren County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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