Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Rgem and nam have flakes for the area tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The short range models are pretty snowy tomorrow for areas away from the coast. 2-3 in eastern Pa and western nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 New GFS is even weaker/ flatter, parts of NNJ/Western Orange County and points north and west, stay all snow, and end on some scattered showers before turning cold again. Nam has also trended cooler for N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Add RGEM to colder trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Add RGEM to colder trend RGEM is money... 3-6" seems to be a good call up here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 We have to watch and see if the precip comes in faster than modeled. Overrunning events like to do that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have to watch and see if the precip comes in faster than modeled. Overrunning events like to do that . and at the same light warm advection tends to warm things quicker when there is nothing to lock i nthe cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 despite notions NAM/GFS is colder there still is only about a 3-6 hour window for snow after midnight tomorrow. even in the weaker GFS, its still rain at SWF per BUFKIT. I urge everyone to not run with snowmaps. This situation is troubling with the strong WAA aloft even inland somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, SBUWX23 said: despite notions NAM/GFS is colder there still is only about a 3-6 hour window for snow after midnight tomorrow. even in the weaker GFS, its still rain at SWF per BUFKIT. I urge everyone to not run with snowmaps. This situation is troubling with the strong WAA aloft even inland somewhat The coasts best shot is tomorrow morning into the afternoon on what the initial slug of moisture looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The coasts best shot is tomorrow morning into the afternoon on what the initial slug of moisture looks like agree completely. looks like the coast may be in the 40s after 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: agree completely. looks like the coast may be in the 40s after 06z Yeah by the time that moisture gets here it will be rain for the metro area tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Nam? Broke at hr 25.... 3k slightly cooler but not much changed for coastal areas or immediate burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Broke at hr 25.... 3k slightly cooler but not much changed for coastal areas or immediate burbs NCEP is rolling and rolled..unless i am looking at the wrong model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Animal said: NCEP is rolling and rolled..unless i am looking at the wrong model. Go to my previous post they put out a statement, froze at 25hr on wxbell storm vista and tidbits Qpf may may be working but surface and 500/850s are unavailable to me atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Nam is a torch. It has very little snow for anyone. Including north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam is a torch. It has very little snow for anyone. Including north and west Toss it. I always hear how the NAM does well with temp profiles Storm was always a mixed bag in the NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 RGEM is very snowy for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, snywx said: RGEM is very snowy for the interior Yea 3-5"/ 4-8" with elevation in Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, snywx said: RGEM is very snowy for the interior dude..post the map...for the love of god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Animal said: dude..post the map...for the love of god! It's in the burbs sub 12:1 ratios up here... 4-7" depending on location/elevation for rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, snywx said: RGEM is very snowy for the interior So nice to have agreement with the short range models this close in lol. The NAM is very different from the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, snowman19 said: So nice to have agreement with the short range models this close in lol. The NAM is very different from the RGEM Thankfully it's the RGEM showing it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: So nice to have agreement with the short range models this close in lol. The NAM is very different from the RGEM 4k hi res Nam is snowier than the RGEM or darn near identical edit: RGEM is a bit snowier, holds 850s off to the south longer, Nams too amped and 850s push north during heavier precip, hopefully enhanced precip rates would encourage dynamic cooling up here and hold the mix line like the RGEM depicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 The snow across IN/IL/OH so far tonight and this afternoon is more widespread than most models had, outside of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The snow across IN/IL/OH so far tonight and this afternoon is more widespread than most models had, outside of the RGEM. Not because it shows the most snow... but the RGEM ( I don't think anyone would disagree) is by far the best meso model out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Long Island is pretty cold right now - hopefully we can hold onto it long enough for some snow. Looking like t-1" across the island for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not because it shows the most snow... but the RGEM ( I don't think anyone would disagree) is by far the best meso model out there... It probably is overall. It has some bad stretches at times. It was amazing in the 13-14 winter, not quite as great in the 14-15 winter, but still good. Last winter it was very bad, and that carried over to the summer. Lately its been better. I think as bad as it was last winter though it was probably still better than the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It probably is overall. It has some bad stretches at times. It was amazing in the 13-14 winter, not quite as great in the 14-15 winter, but still good. Last winter it was very bad, and that carried over to the summer. Lately its been better. I think as bad as it was last winter though it was probably still better than the GFS and NAM. regardless of how this turns out for anyone including us "upstate" guys lol... a snowy solution would be a major win for the GGEM, who is often the stepchild of the models lol... I personally like the GGEM, it often nails events when it's locked, however it tends to be the erratic of the 3 main Global's, which is why my interest has been peaked for so long on this event, GGEM hasn't budged on this solution in nearly a week, while the GFS and euro have traded places 3 times over on amped cutter/weak push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Heaviest snows on RGEM are in NW NJ and NW of the Tappan Zee. Westchester and Putnam continue to be mostly southeast of anything over 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Heaviest snows on RGEM are in NW NJ and NW of the Tappan Zee. Westchester and Putnam continue to be mostly southeast of anything over 1-2 inches I agree, this is not coming south of Orange/Rockland for anything more than 1-2 btw have you looked at current temps compared to modeled? overperforming cold out there tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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