Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Better than nothing I guess It will be cold to start so everything should stick once it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Still a chance for a surprise by the coast if you want the optimistic view. The southerly flow is light enough through 06Z that if more WAA snow breaks out than expected I think it can remain all snow as late as 04-06Z. As of now though I don't see anything meaningful falling til 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I'll take an inch of snow and run with it Before Dec. 15th, I'd consider that a win. I'm doing cartwheels if I see a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Still a chance for a surprise by the coast if you want the optimistic view. The southerly flow is light enough through 06Z that if more WAA snow breaks out than expected I think it can remain all snow as late as 04-06Z. As of now though I don't see anything meaningful falling til 00z. there is a decent dry punch behind that initial surge tomorrow evening. Thats going to be trouble for any snow before 06z after the dry punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: there is a decent dry punch behind that initial surge tomorrow evening. Thats going to be trouble for any snow before 06z after the dry punch. Yeah for the coast it will come down to the initial surge that might move north pretty fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 We've seen storms like this over perform or under perform before... they never stick to what the models say and given the density of the cold air, I'll say this either changes to sleet or it stays snow, but never goes to rain except for extreme coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: We've seen storms like this over perform or under perform before... they never stick to what the models say and given the density of the cold air, I'll say this either changes to sleet or it stays snow, but never goes to rain except for extreme coastal locations. There's just not alot of moisture during the afternoon/evening hours. Most models show a tenth of an inch or less so by the time the main slug gets in here its too warm for snow at all levels. If they're wrong about that then we could see a couple inches before the changeover, but could also see just flurries or snow showers with no real accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: There's just not alot of moisture during the afternoon/evening hours. Most models show a tenth of an inch or less so by the time the main slug gets in here its too warm for snow at all levels. If they're wrong about that then we could see a couple inches before the changeover, but could also see just flurries or snow showers with no real accums The one thing that stands out is that there is not a huge dry layer to overcome, so anything that does develop may reach the ground quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: We've seen storms like this over perform or under perform before... they never stick to what the models say and given the density of the cold air, I'll say this either changes to sleet or it stays snow, but never goes to rain except for extreme coastal locations. It's possible I guess but I think it may be a stretch, I fully anticipate to switch to rain/mix Monday AM sometime all the way up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nam is also very fast with this system compared to other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 years ago this week was the infamous storm where it kept dropping to the low 20s and nobody thought we'd ever change over, and in the end most places saw their temps spike by 15 degrees in a matter of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam is also very fast with this system compared to other guidance RGEM sort of is too, and the RGEM since its upgrade has had a noticeable slow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGem still won't cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'd guess the 1" line for tomorrow to be pretty close to Rt 80 until u get to the parkway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GGem still won't cave not sure what you are talking about. the trend has been warmer even in the euro. this is a difficult pattern to keep things all snow even by you. Looking at snowmaps from these models will burn you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: not sure what you are talking about. the trend has been warmer even in the euro. this is a difficult pattern to keep things all snow even by you. Looking at snowmaps from these models will burn you If the new RPM model run is correct, no one basically sees anything lol. It plows the warm front right through central New England very fast, has it going to all rain even up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 16 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: not sure what you are talking about. the trend has been warmer even in the euro. this is a difficult pattern to keep things all snow even by you. Looking at snowmaps from these models will burn you 850s and 2mt temps are unchanged from last nights 00z run, stays all snow north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: not sure what you are talking about. the trend has been warmer even in the euro. this is a difficult pattern to keep things all snow even by you. Looking at snowmaps from these models will burn you This is primarily a snow/ice event 40+ miles NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, snywx said: This is primarily a snow/ice event 40+ miles NW of NYC. ice in this pattern? what is locking in the cold at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: ice in this pattern? what is locking in the cold at the surface? We do very well with CAD and have seen time and time again it under modeled in the HV especially west of the river. Upton even thinks a sig. snowfall is coming to orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: ice in this pattern? what is locking in the cold at the surface? Even the warmest model (GFS) keeps 850s below 0 for the duration of this event, till the front pushes through and we flip for about 4 hours on the tail end....nobody is saying this has the potential to be a 6-10" snowfall up here, but 2-4/3-5" is still something to be excited about, in December... for an area that speaking for myself received 2.9" last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Upton for O.C Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 506 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 NYZ067-111015- ORANGE- 506 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 36 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Even the warmest model (GFS) keeps 850s below 0 for the duration of this event, till the front pushes through and we flip for about 4 hours on the tail end....nobody is saying this has the potential to be a 6-10" snowfall up here, but 2-4/3-5" is still something to be excited about, in December... for an area that speaking for myself received 2.9" last season 925 mb temperatures are warmer than 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Euro ? Less than an inch for the coast. 1" line starts in Western Essex County. 3-5" for NW posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nam seems colder even for the coast. Few hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 NAM does appear to be 1-2" for most around Rt. 78 and north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 hours ago, SBUWX23 said: 925 mb temperatures are warmer than 850. WWA advisory issued Hazard types...Snow. * Snow accumulations...Snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches...With locally higher amounts possible across higher elevations of The Eastern catskills and portions of Schoharie County. * Timing...Light Snow will overspread the region during Sunday afternoon. Steadier Snow...Some moderate in intensity...Will develop late Sunday evening and continue through Daybreak Monday. The Snow May Mix with or change to Rain and sleet after Daybreak Monday morning for areas South of interstate 90. * Impacts...Snow covered roadways and reduced visibilities Due to falling Snow. * Winds...South 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Temperatures...Mid 20s to around 30...Rising into the lower to Mid 30s by Mid morning Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 WWA for 1" snow then a little ice for somerset and hunterdon counties in PHL region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 FWIW check out NRN IL today. It won't necessarily translate downstream here, but its the same portion of the system more or less that will impact this area tomorrow. That snow is relatively "heavy" compared to what last night's 00Z GFS and NAM runs had. The RGEM by far is forecasting it best. The UKMET was not bad but was too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.