UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nam hasn't wavered even a tad for nearly 8 straight runs... I mean each run is a carbon copy of the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 29 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam hasn't wavered even a tad for nearly 8 straight runs... I mean each run is a carbon copy of the previous. I think it's going to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think it's going to be correct. Last time it did this was for the January 23 2016 blizzard and it was right on the money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I will take my half inch and be happy Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS another carbon copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 850s jump from -10 to +5 in a 4 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM is still colder/weaker solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850s jump from -10 to +5 in a 4 hour period That should provide some heavy snow for Albany to Lake George to cash in on. SWFEs just suck in general for this area. Maybe your area iced over for a good while-the surface will be tough to warm up much. Down by the coast and in the city it will spike well into the 40s, maybe in a few hours. The high can be as strong as it wants to be, when the wind turns onshore with the water so warm it's guaranteed to be over immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Both camps are holding strong so far.. GGEM/Euro vs Nam/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850s jump from -10 to +5 in a 4 hour period this is because of a screaming low level jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Despite the ggem colder solution, I am having trouble buying it with the shortwave looking like this at H5. Typically you dont get that type of snow this far south when the shortwave is oriented like this that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GGEM Yeah...even that looks like a slushy inch or so at most anywhere near the coast, and advisory level starting around I-287 to northern Rockland/Westchester. I know snowmaps are untrustworthy, but if anything they generally overdo totals. Averaging this with other models just about makes you write it off outside of the far north and west suburbs for more than 2 or 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Stick a fork in this one, its done at least at the coast IMO. Further inland is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah...even that looks like a slushy inch or so at most anywhere near the coast, and advisory level starting around I-287 to northern Rockland/Westchester. I know snowmaps are untrustworthy, but if anything they generally overdo totals. Averaging this with other models just about makes you write it off outside of the far north and west suburbs for more than 2 or 3". The GFS differences aloft should have been more conducive of a colder solution on the GFS, main difference while tracks are similar on all models is of course H5, as well as the PV diving a bit more south on euro/ggem photo credit goes to Hudson valley weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Stick a fork in this one, its done at least at the coast IMO. Further inland is a different story. I'm not surprised if this turns into nothing. But we've seen crazier outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The GFS differences aloft should have been more conducive of a colder solution on the GFS, main difference while tracks are similar on all models is of course H5, as well as the PV diving a bit more south on euro/ggem photo credit goes to Hudson valley weather I think it's a case where for you that might matter, a colder GGEM solution would result in borderline warning snow vs. a very warm GFS. For the city and coast it's pretty much a done deal unless there's a huge shift and a low taking over south of the area which would keep winds offshore. And that onshore wind looks to really roar quickly, with marginal temps to start anyway for accumulating snow. Low dewpoints might also eat up the initial snow that would accumulate. I'm still hopeful everyone gets at least measurable snow but it will be very short lived near the coast unless there's a marked shift at this range to a less amplified or blockier solution which forces an offshore redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ukmet looks like snow showers to moderate rain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like the 6z runs have trended a bit colder. Hopefully it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 20 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Looks like the 6z runs have trended a bit colder. Hopefully it continues The nam was the most noticeably colder/flatter,. As we draw closer I think a blend between euro/GFS aid a good bet, coating to 1" 2-4" N+W, 3-6" once your up into the capital region north of me even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The nam was the most noticeably colder/flatter,. As we draw closer I think a blend between euro/GFS aid a good bet, coating to 1" 2-4" N+W, 3-6" once your up into the capital region north of me even The main WAA finger is likely to miss the coast, so I still think at most 1/2 inch there barring some sort of shift south. This will be one of those cases where SWF and far northern New Jersey are snowing from 10am tomorrow and NYC doesn't see a flake til 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The main WAA finger is likely to miss the coast, so I still think at most 1/2 inch there barring some sort of shift south. This will be one of those cases where SWF and far northern New Jersey are snowing from 10am tomorrow and NYC doesn't see a flake til 7pm Even that may be generous for up here... dew points are very low, I think virga till atleast midnight Monday am, give or take 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 About an inch for nyc then rain with more snow to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Rgem has snow for the game tomorrow night at Giants stadium. Should look nice temps in the upper 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Rgem is close to the nam with about a inch for the city. Li and central nj less then a inch. North and west 2-4. For the coast the snow will come Sunday late afternoon as the warm front lifts north. Once the main show comes at night it will be to warm by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem is close to the nam with about a inch for the city. Li and central nj less then a inch. North and west 2-4. For the coast the snow will come Sunday late afternoon as the warm front lifts north. Once the main show comes at night it will be to warm by then Better than nothing I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'll take an inch of snow and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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