Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, SBUWX23 said: I know its not what people want to hear, but I think the GFS/NAM solutions should not be thrown out for the Sunday night/Monday system. The gfs did well with this. It just was to amped up yesterday. The track was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem, all snow for burbs but much weaker, keeping heaviest precip south of NYC... someone with a bit more knowledge wanna dive into why the GGEM may see this, other than a weaker LP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What about the Wednesday system? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Still there on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 hours ago, uncle W said: between March 3rd 1960 and Feb. 4th 1961 NYC got four blizzards and a major hurricane...The only year that comes close is 2009-2011... six storms in 14 months in NYC... 1960-61 was the snowiest winter on record for Dobbs Ferry with 90" recorded at the co-op. It is closely followed by 1995-96 and 1957-58, the only two other winters with over 80". 2013-14 was close with 74"; if any of those storns that hit DC in March had come up the coast, we may have approached the rexord. Even Bay Ridge in extreme SW Brooklyn had 58" in 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, nzucker said: 1960-61 was the snowiest winter on record for Dobbs Ferry with 90" recorded at the co-op. It is closely followed by 1995-96 and 1957-58, the only two other winters with over 80". 2013-14 was close with 74"; if any of those storns that hit DC in March had come up the coast, we may have approached the rexord. Even Bay Ridge in extreme SW Brooklyn had 58" in 2013-14. Deepest snowpack on record for NNJ came following the Feb. storm - the three reservoirs 7-15 miles W & NW of where I lived had 47-52" at peak. With a friend I tried to wade thru the woods, giving up after 100 yards. I was 5'8" then, and the snow was up to my navel, with probably 6"+ under my boots - over 40", maybe up to 45". I don't think we ever got past 24" in the 21 years we lived in the Jersey Highlands (and I was a few months shy of my 2nd birthday when the big post-Christmas storm dumped 25-30" over most of the NYC metro region.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Gefs look snowy front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 33 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem, all snow for burbs but much weaker, keeping heaviest precip south of NYC... someone with a bit more knowledge wanna dive into why the GGEM may see this, other than a weeker LP? The PV is noticeably closer on the Canadian vs the GFS, so that's probably interfering to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Gefs cut as well, how much front end dump we can squeeze out looks to be the theme for this, members are split 3-6" for burbs coating to 1" NYC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs cut as well, how much front end dump we can squeeze out looks to be the theme for this, members are split 3-6" for burbs coating to 1" NYC proper For the coast and the city itself, I think it's going to trend toward less and less and maybe eventually nothing, we'll see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This is primarily a rain event as the low heads to Detroit, northern New England, and on out. Some of us may get a brief period of sleet or snow at the start. Little or no accumulation, leaning toward none. WX/PT completely agree. Good to see you at this board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I think 2-4 for the immediate NW burbs is being real generous. Like you said, extremely dry boundary layer. This may be a virga fest for awhile before it saturates enough to snow at the beginning. I'd honestly want to be north of 84 to get snow for this one. With an 850mb low track like that to the west, the low level jet punching in from the south is going to warm the midlevels very quickly the further south you go I doubt places like my parents' house in Dobbs Ferry is going to receive 2-4". I'm expecting a coating to an inch here in the Bronx, 1-2" in Westchester/Rockland, and 2-4" from Poughkeepsie northward to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, nzucker said: I doubt places like my parents' house in Dobbs Ferry is going to receive 2-4". I'm expecting a coating to an inch here in the Bronx, 1-2" in Westchester/Rockland, and 2-4" from Poughkeepsie northward to Albany. From Rockland to Albany is a long way for only 2" difference in accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It does not look like a snowy scenario at all for the coast. That said, and I think I said this a few days ago too. The 60-68 hour period scares me a bit, I don't like the relatively big high pulling out, its not in the best position, but the system is arriving early enough that the high is still close enough there is a window of 4-6 hours where overrunning snows could break out when the southerly low level flow is not yet really established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: completely agree. Good to see you at this board as well. This is quickly becoming a inch or less outside the far northwest areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is quickly becoming a inch or less outside the far northwest areas Hows the navgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Sheesh! We'll have more snow chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Light snow moves in on the euro Sunday afternoon. The euro looks pretty flat so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 .10+ of snow on the euro for the area. The system is very flat and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: .10+ of snow on the euro for the area. The system is very flat and weak. Looks a lot like ggem at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 The high pressure is also further south and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nice run for areas north and west of the city. 4-6 and i dont think they go over to plain rain. Nyc is about 1-2 but overall it was weaker with the system and colder. Its snow lightly all afternoon on sunday per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice run for areas north and west of the city. 4-6 and i dont think they go over to plain rain. Nyc is about 1-2 but overall it was weaker with the system and colder. Its snow lightly all afternoon on sunday per the euro Dew points are very low, I think a lot of that Sunday snow will be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Elevation and how far inland will mean more snow, how much we shall see. Only so much elevation can help when the low is way up in Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Only so much elevation can help when the low is way up in Canada...Exactly. And I haven't seen a single post that I recall talking about the 850 low which tracks from Wisconsin to Nova Scotia. Folks, that is NOT the recipe for early December snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly. And I haven't seen a single post that I recall talking about the 850 low which tracks from Wisconsin to Nova Scotia. Folks, that is NOT the recipe for early December snows. this is still a decent threat, for N+W sections of this sub. ALL model guidance has interior front end accumulation... even the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 this is still a decent threat, for N+W sections of this sub. ALL model guidance has interior front end accumulation... even the GFS Guess Im unclear of where exactly "New York City Metro" is actually located? If you are defining areas like Poughkeepsie and Albany as NYC Metro then I agree with your thinking. Otherwise, NYC proper will be lucky to see a half inch accums. Guess that's where we disagree....NYC Metro vs NW burbs/interior sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The Euro was a pretty decent dumping from Rt. 80 North. The surface was a bit warm, but the 850 freezing line never makes it further NW than the Tappan Zee Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12Z Euro is 2-3 for the metro area. 1 inch down by New Brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Enough. if you dont want to read certain posters discussions about parts of this subforum's chances at snow, use the ignore feature. If you dont agree about a comment, either ignore it, respond in the appropriate thread, or use PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Eps is .75 for south shore and 1.5 north shore. 1.5 for New brunswick area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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