UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nams an ugly mess, not even a good front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 If nams right, this storm is light snow, coatingto an inch washed away by about .75 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This looks like a quick snow to rain scenario for the coast and some accumulating snow for the interior unless the precip comes in faster than modeled. Hopefully the entire area at least gets on the board for measurable snow. Beyond that, it looks to go to rain fast near the coast and for the city, and whatever falls southeast of I-287 should be washed away by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: First freeze of the year in the Bronx. 31 degrees. 4 weeks later than normal, that is pathetic. 17 months in a row of above normal temps. Hopefully this month puts an end to the streak, but I'm not betting on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams an ugly mess, not even a good front end dump It's way out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Latest from upton A broad rain or snow approach was used in the forecast. Significant snowfall is most likely across the northern and western interior, even if there is indeed a changeover in those area. As a result, the Hazardous Weather Outlook will include Orange county in a 6 inch snowfall risk. The precipitation may change back to a snow, again depending on track which means the dry slot in this case, at the end of the event. North of 84 probably gets a few inches of snow, other than that, weak surface high and CAD, mediocre boundary layer, surface low cuts way west and you have a screaming, warm low level jet punching in from the south destroying the mid levels ahead of the advancing warm front. South of 84 is probably a quick inch before all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 4 weeks later than normal, that is pathetic. 17 months in a row of above normal temps. Hopefully this month puts an end to the streak, but I'm not betting on it yet. Dutch Harbor, AK holds the current record at 42 months in a row above normal. Stations with above normal temperatures for 24+ consecutive months (through November 2016). Dutch Harbor, AK, leads with 42 months in a row. pic.twitter.com/pse8g2RQT5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I know its not what people want to hear, but I think the GFS/NAM solutions should not be thrown out for the Sunday night/Monday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: I know its not what people want to hear, but I think the GFS/NAM solutions should not be thrown out for the Sunday night/Monday system. Personally with no block, the only way we get this in our favor is a weak system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: I know its not what people want to hear, but I think the GFS/NAM solutions should not be thrown out for the Sunday night/Monday system. GFS is not too bad for the interior, but not good near the cities/ Nam is way out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Pamela said: The NAM's out of its range even while the storm is in progress; though in this particular case...its probably on to something. It's just overdone as it does often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Upton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS looks identical to 06 so far, cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Expecting 2-3 inches in Poughkeepsie then a switch to mix. Warm air usually ends up being stronger and more protruding at mid levels than progged in these kinds of setups.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS is nearly a carbon copy of 06z through 72hrs... GFS seems locked in this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 This is primarily a rain event as the low heads to Detroit, northern New England, and on out. Some of us may get a brief period of sleet or snow at the start. Little or no accumulation, leaning toward none. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Another thing is that dew points are in the teens when precip arrives, i would not be surprised in this set-up if we're window watching with returns over head, only to see nothing falling...ill wait to see euro, but my call would be 1-2" city 2-4" NW burbs, 3-6 extreme burbs, everyone rains eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This is primarily a rain event as the low heads to Detroit, northern New England, and on out. Some of us may get a brief period of sleet or snow at the start. Little or no accumulation, leaning toward none. WX/PT For the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, Pamela said: I'm sure that "17% chance" in Meriden is based on the most up to date science and carefully arranged permutations and algorithms known to modern man...and proves itself to be so utterly useful to residents of Meriden; who will derive the most extraordinary comfort & sustenance from knowing that there is a "17% chance" of 4 inches of snow in their town. Yeah.... Something like that smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Another thing is that dew points are in the teens when precip arrives, i would not be surprised in this set-up if we're window watching with returns over head, only to see nothing falling...ill wait to see euro, but my call would be 1-2" city 2-4" NW burbs, 3-6 extreme burbs, everyone rains eventually Agreed... Even with the cutter GFS is still showing 3-5" for O.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Another thing is that dew points are in the teens when precip arrives, i would not be surprised in this set-up if we're window watching with returns over head, only to see nothing falling...ill wait to see euro, but my call would be 1-2" city 2-4" NW burbs, 3-6 extreme burbs, everyone rains eventually I think 2-4 for the immediate NW burbs is being real generous. Like you said, extremely dry boundary layer. This may be a virga fest for awhile before it saturates enough to snow at the beginning. I'd honestly want to be north of 84 to get snow for this one. With an 850mb low track like that to the west, the low level jet punching in from the south is going to warm the midlevels very quickly the further south you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 From what I'm hearing GGEM looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, dmillz25 said: From what I'm hearing GGEM looks decent Ggem is cold and flat (what we want) so far, but it's been that way... when ggem is alone, it's often wrong.. but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 What about the Wednesday system?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ggem looks nothing like GFS city and immediate burbs looks to do better than areas north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It seems like the GFS has been leading the pack more often then not these days, even the Euro went towards its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Yeah, this set up never had a chance, with a braod high due east of us, strong south winds, and a low cutting well west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What about the Wednesday system? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Went south with the mid week threat. Snow north and west but just enough southeast ridge to keep the metro as rain. Still plenty of time left to work on that. Im about done with this Sunday night turd. North and west should get 1-3/2-4. I'm all about mid week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 20 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: For the coast. No, not just the coast. When low pressure tracks to Detroit, most of the area including inland are getting mostly rain. Could some inland areas hold onto some wet snow or sleet a little longer at the start, sure, but it's still most likely to end up mainly rain. The only way I can see that changing is for the primary low to weaken or wash out completely and secondary to quickly develop off of the coast, but the latest maps would suggest that if that happens it won't be until the primary itself is entering northern New England, and that's just WAY too late to save this one. Could the forecast maps, the GFS particularly, be wrong? Sure. But it right now just does not seem likely. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: No, not just the coast. When low pressure tracks to Detroit, most of the area including inland are getting mostly rain. Could some inland areas hold onto some wet snow or sleet a little longer at the start, sure, but it's still most likely to end up mainly rain. The only way I can see that changing is for the primary low to weaken or wash out completely and secondary to quickly develop off of the coast, but the latest maps would suggest that if that happens it won't be until the primary itself is entering northern New England, and that's just WAY too late to save this one. Could the forecast maps, the GFS particularly, be wrong? Sure. But it right now just does not seem likely. WX/PT Elevation and how far inland will mean more snow, how much we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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