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Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

UlsterCountySnowZ

By UlsterCountySnowZ,
in New York City Metro

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 12/8/2016 at 10:05 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

What's your thoughts? Every other models trended flatter except GFS?

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Honestly I don't take anything the 18z GFS shows seriously. It is odd however that it's showing an amped up cutter. The GFS normally has a known progressive bias. I would have expected an outlier OTS run from the 18z, not this

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
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Posted
  On 12/8/2016 at 10:09 PM, snowman19 said:

Honestly I don't take anything the 18z GFS shows seriously. It is odd however that it's showing an amped up cutter. The GFS normally has a known progressive bias. I would have expected an outlier OTS run from the 18z, not this

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It really didn't change much from its 12z run, maybe it's gonna play late to the party... 12z cut but wasn't as strong allowing for more front end, interior is still 3-6"...6-8" higher elevation

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

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  On 12/8/2016 at 10:15 PM, bluewave said:

I don't think the GFS has ever been correct when it comes in more west than all the other models. It only scores coups when it's further east than Euro like January 2015.

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Which would play into the euros western bias... idc what anyone says about upgrades, we've seen it since... and the fact the euro is zonal in opposition to GFS makes me think the GFS is playing catch-up... however... if and IF this does happen, credit should really be given to ggem, its wavered a few times, but was the first to see the weaker flow

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/8/2016 at 10:11 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

It really didn't change much from its 12z run, maybe it's gonna play late to the party... 12z cut but wasn't as strong allowing for more front end, interior is still 3-6"...6-8" higher elevation

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When that warm front gets here, you'll need about twice the altitude of the highest Catskills peak to get above the warm layer ;)

 

izvx5c.jpg

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
  On 12/8/2016 at 11:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Didn't look too in depth, so your probably right But isn't most of the front end dump already done by the time that warm pushes?

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A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away.

Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days...

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

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  On 12/8/2016 at 11:13 PM, Juliancolton said:

A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away.

Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days...

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I'll take Ill fate.... boost my totals... Gefs don't look so hot, with that strong of a cutter though I didn't expect to be far off from the Op

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jm1220

jm1220

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Posted
  On 12/9/2016 at 12:10 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

The latter. What's the point of getting 6" of snow that literally last minutes before its reduced to 5 then 4 then nothing. Snow to rain is the worst. I would literally take 3" of arctic snow on a cold December day that coats everything and lasts for a week than 10" of concrete that gets reduced to plow piles in hours.

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Never move to the south shore then. We might get a couple of inches from what comes Monday, but it'll almost certainly be gone by the end. I've never liked these SWFE storms-they're New England and upstate NY focused.  Boston should get a nice event. They cashed in over and over again in 2007-08 and 2008-09 from these while NYC largely got slop to rain.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
  On 12/8/2016 at 11:13 PM, Juliancolton said:

A general .3" to .6" liquid before changeover, which is a little under half of storm total QPF. It would be a solid snowfall of 5-7" or something like that, then promptly washed away.

Still haven't decided if I'd prefer ill-fated warning criteria snow, or advisory criteria snow that you can look at for a few days...

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I'd rather be able to look at it for a while. 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
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  On 12/8/2016 at 11:02 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Didn't look too in depth, so your probably right But isn't most of the front end dump already done by the time that warm pushes?

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If you have true arctic air in place at the boundary layer with low dew points/dry air, if you get a decent strength warm low level jet advecting moisture up from the advancing warm front over the cold dome, usually produces quite a bit of snow at rapid rates over a short time and the start times are almost always earlier than expected. Usually you get a decent thump before the mid-levels get destroyed and then you go over to sleet and freezing rain

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 12/9/2016 at 1:17 AM, Pamela said:

Mildly curious about the precise amount of snow that fell at Logan Airport during 2008-09...I visited the Taunton website. 

Much to my dismay, a once splendid repository of climate data had not only become unnavigable; but it had been dumbed down to a level of indecipherability rare even in these times.

Here's to you NWS web re-designer; now that's what I call progress!

 

Edit:  Seems the problems not confined to Taunton page; OKX page has been similarly "improved"...they once had 15 years of Public Information Statements keying in on every storm event in the CWA; that page has been truncated down to just the last 2 years...though it has been amply replaced by a bunch of utterly useless graphics that would not give anyone insight on how to escape from a paper bag.

It is akin to calling "customer service" for some particular problem you might be having; the menu affords you every single option except for the one that you need!

 

 

 

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Boston had 65.6" of snow in 2008-2009. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 12/9/2016 at 1:40 AM, Pamela said:

 Thnxs.  I would probably have more luck searching Am WX (or even my own list of old posts!) than to try to find that data at the BOX website!

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Without going too far OT:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

go to the tab "now data" on the right. Then select "monthly summarized data". Choose snowfall as the variable and for start year type in "por" (stands for period of record). I was wrong on my earlier estimate. It was 65.9" and not 65.6". Tho don't necessarily trust all the data in there. ORH is a disaster for many of the 1995-2004 years. 

 

 

Anyways to stay on topic, I'd obviously want latitude in this storm. You'd typically feel decent if you were in the far NNJ zones up into Hudson valley. NYC may struggle in this setup unless we can get maybe a slightly colder version of the euro. Not impossible but work to do to get that. Having the main vortmax pass west of the region is typically not good. 

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2016 at 1:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Without going too far OT:

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

 

go to the tab "now data" on the right. Then select "monthly summarized data". Choose snowfall as the variable and for start year type in "por" (stands for period of record). I was wrong on my earlier estimate. It was 65.9" and not 65.6". Tho don't necessarily trust all the data in there. ORH is a disaster for many of the 1995-2004 years. 

 

 

Anyways to stay on topic, I'd obviously want latitude in this storm. You'd typically feel decent if you were in the far NNJ zones up into Hudson valley. NYC may struggle in this setup unless we can get maybe a slightly colder version of the euro. Not impossible but work to do to get that. Having the main vortmax pass west of the region is typically not good. 

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Thank you for your input. To be honest I just want to get on the board I'll take whatever I get

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2016 at 2:08 AM, Pamela said:

 

Gee, could they make it any simpler?  One would think they are hiding the Wealth of the Indies in there; rather than some rather pedestrian snow records that are putatively in the public domain.  Moreover, the data I did uncover subsequent to unveiling layer upon layer of cyber-mortar was limited to the interval from 1999 to the present; hardly affording one a complete portrait of the snow climatology at Logan Field.

However I do thank you for your earnest effort to guide me in the right direction; Columbo himself would have been hard pressed to solve this case!

You would think they could just put a simple link on Page One of the Climate Data:  Boston Monthly Snowfall Chart!

Oh how I loathe the 21st century...only good things about it are Wikipedia, YouTube, & useful hyperlinks....

 

 

 

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this site might help...

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770

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swamplover56

swamplover56

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2016 at 2:52 AM, Ericjcrash said:

NAM says game over for everyone. This is looking increasingly DOA, even for those to the north. 850s torch quickly.

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So because the 18z gfs and the h 72 nam say it's over really? lol guess the dgex showing a cold storm is just as good as an argument. Let's at least wait til tomorrow at oz before making declarations

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2016 at 2:56 AM, swamplover56 said:

So because the 18z gfs and the h 72 nam say it's over really? lol guess the dgex showing a cold storm is just as good as an argument. Let's at least wait til tomorrow at oz before making declarations

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What's in favor of a snowstorm? Euro and CMC(which 2 runs ago was bleak)? 

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