UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Although this looks like another threat north and west of NYC, a slight change in track brings accumulating snow into NYC proper and surrounding areas... EURO, GFS, GGEM all have this threat and accumulation N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z GFS has good WAA snows initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 This is something to watch, GFS, gets an offshore secondary LP going just after inital WAA pushes through, and throws precip back into coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Another tick colder by the gfs for Sunday night. Looks like our first wintry threat for the metro are a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z ggem has 6-10 for the area Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z ggem has 6-10 for the area Sunday night That would make for a snowy Giants game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, dmillz25 said: That would make for a snowy Giants game We need to slow that run game down somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We need to slow that run game down somehow Lmao for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Some 7 day eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Some 7 day eye candy I like the mint color. Highly doubt by next week we'll see a foot of snow in NJ but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, JerseyWx said: I like the mint color. Highly doubt by next week we'll see a foot of snow in NJ but we'll see. Don't underestimate this cold coming, gonna have to watch these events closely, models have been hinting for a while now that the 10-17 time frame is something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't underestimate this cold coming, gonna have to watch these events closely, models have been hinting for a while now that the 10-17 time frame is something to watch Next week does look downright frigid. Lows in the teens look like a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Gefs are pretty snowy for Sunday night into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gefs are pretty snowy for Sunday night into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z cmc total snow for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z euro is going to cut this event west of the area. Really amped up out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Euro tends to over-amp things 5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 988 over Det, congrats Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Euro crushes far interior, 1-3/2-4 north of rockland, farther north more acc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Having the cmc flatter than the Euro says something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro is going to cut this event west of the area. Really amped up out west Yep it sure did cut. Huge snowstorm for the Midwest. There is CAD through our area all the way down into the Mid-Atlantic though. If that verifies it's a freezing rain/ice storm for us and a living hell of a rush hour Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep it sure did cut. Huge snowstorm for the Midwest. There is CAD through our area all the way down into the Mid-Atlantic though. If that verifies it's freezing rain/ice storm for us and a living hell of a rush hour Monday morning Yeah the high was in a good position for low level cold. Euro artic hounds coming down mid week...absolutely brutal air for december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Eh most models are flat. Probably the euro over amped solutions at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Eh most models are flat. Probably the euro over amped solutions at work Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut Shows a snowstorm for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Overamping isn't the problem. I know people want to dismiss the Euro because it's not showing a snowstorm, but why wouldn't that cyclone cut? There is no downstream -NAO/Greenland block to not allow it to do that. If you don't have frontside -NAO blocking and a shortwave develops at that location, it will cut Sure that makes sense. Can you show me the block on the gfs that allows this to not cut? Highlighting the differences in the models is why we're here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The euro has been guilty of overamping on a number of occasions when every model is showing something else that tells you something is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Sure that makes sense. Can you show me the block on the gfs that allows this to not cut? Highlighting the differences in the models is why we're here. After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves That may be true, but thats not what i asked. Can you show maps of the euro vs the gfs and explain why the euro is more likely to be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the upgrade, the Euro no longer has the bias of hanging back energy in the west and overamping shortwaves How can you possibly know that as fact? Literally curious... has there even been enough anologs and samples to draw hat conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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