Hoar_Frost Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, King James said: My boy Tim Mcgill going bold with the 2-4 then Total through the weekend? Perhaps he meant 2-4" from the first round tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Here is Mcgill's call FWIW. And it's simply model reliant: Model forecasts 4 snowfall thru Sunday evening. Take your pick. I think 2-4" south & 4-8" north (higher near border) https://t.co/aanjENmZcD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0z ECMWF is weak and disorganized overall.First wave is weak, and essentially leads right into the second wave, which is a mess.0z EPS also took a step back with a weaker a disorganized event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 That cutoff is way, way too close out here. Only 30 miles to my south now. This north bleed needs to stop, but a bit of reassurance exists because DVN said the north bleed on the GFS is overdone and the storm is too warm. Currently thinking of a last Sunday esque system south of I80. Where if it starts as snow it would likely stay as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 53 minutes ago, Hoar_Frost said: Total through the weekend? Perhaps he meant 2-4" from the first round tomorrow night? Through Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 00Z ECMWF Ensemble Mean through 240hrs. Snow ratio calculations using Cobb method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 16 minutes ago, L.B. LaForce said: 00Z ECMWF Ensemble Mean through 240hrs. Snow ratio calculations using Cobb method. Hey L.B.!! That's a pretty solid mean through the period, look at some of those lake enhanced totals near Allegan and Traverse City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z GFS holds fairly steady overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS holds fairly steady overall. Hopefully so haha, we need some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 GFS is all snow for Chicago except maybe some snizzle after it is over......liquid is like 0.8 - 0.9"....Solid event forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS holds fairly steady overall. Does extend the heavy totals south of I-80 where they weren't before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS holds fairly steady overall. Seems like a slight shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is all snow for Chicago except maybe some snizzle after it is over......liquid is like 0.8 - 0.9"....Solid event forthcoming. I'm seeing the 2m temps pop above freezing as the low passes overhead. I'm thinking a period of slop even up here in Lake County can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z GGEM is faster, weaker and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, L.B. LaForce said: 00Z ECMWF Ensemble Mean through 240hrs. Snow ratio calculations using Cobb method. Several inch totals even in Des Moines and points southwest now? That wasn't in the cards a day ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, tuanis said: I'm seeing the 2m temps pop above freezing as the low passes overhead. I'm thinking a period of slop even up here in Lake County can't be ruled out. Obviously just one model run of one model, but Chicago is pretty much done when mixing would potentially start. Soundings are rock solid through mid evening Sunday....At least as the GFS is depicting, there may be some mixing toward 3z on Sunday night, but 0z is a rock solid snow sounding. Not much falls after 3z. Maybe like 0.05 liquid, and the warming is low level, so it would probably still be snow with some sleet mixing in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Winter storm watch up for LOT, roughly I-80 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Winter storm watch up for LOT, roughly I-80 north DVN will surely follow I think?? But they will be the last ones to issue. They always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I wonder what will be left after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I wonder what will be left after the rain. When I was checking that this morning it was only going through the 10th. Tried refreshing and reloading and it wasn't working. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 DVN will surely follow I think?? But they will be the last ones to issue. They always are.That's definitely not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Chicago Storm said: That's definitely not the case. It is in my experience. DVN and DMX like to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It is in my experience. DVN and DMX like to wait.Usually they're one of the first in the area.As they were with the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Usually they're one of the first in the area. As they were with the last event. Yeah, it seems like they ride the hype train and tend to be out in front on most things snow related. I would guess LOT coordinated with the other area WFOs prior to issuance and we will see a coherent map as the day progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Usually they're one of the first in the area. As they were with the last event. I'm comparing with offices further north and west, they very well may be one of the earlier offices when compared with offices south and east. Which makes sense since that's the way storms track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 DVN watch for NE portions ...WWA more west keep in mind in these WAA snows quite often the precip breaks out ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12z UKMET continues to be consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 The model differences in the details for areas south of I-80 are huge. NAM won't give up on having less precip there. Latest runs never actually warm 850 mb above 0C here. The GFS has decent precip rates around the time it warms the low levels above freezing, so the weenie in me hopes it's being a little too aggressive. Rain shouldn't hurt things too much even in worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Kind of a bummer to miss 2 systems in a row to my north. My focus turns to next weekend 12/18 timeframe. Enjoy everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I feel your pain on missing good winter storms man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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