andyhb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Wherever it rains on top of the snow is going to have one hell of a glacier when it freezes over. Yeah the flash freeze coming after this looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Still snowing back into Iowa at the end of the run.Even showing lake enhancement in IL/WI at 84hrs as well. Probably have some big runs in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Even showing lake enhancement in IL/WI at 84hrs as well. Probably have some big runs in the future. Looks plausible as long as the track doesn't end up too far north. How much it would boost snow amounts is questionable though given low level thermal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z GFS a little south with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 When we get these zonal flows like this with some cold air in place MBY usually is right on the knife edge. Plus I live right on the border of IND and IWX coverage so I get to be a super which way I get to pick from an official forecast point. Not a lot of faith here that we're going to get much more than a few inches, then rain, then stalagmites. A little ripple in the SE ridge and I mean little could mean the difference between heart attack shoveling concrete and, well heart attack shoveling fluff. I'm still rooting for IWX's north south I 70 call a few day's ago but I think the days of the I 70 line need to e moved up to HWY 28 lol. After 3 weeks in Texas I'm just happy there's something finally looking white. BTW, we were forecast flurries and we have a half inch, still very -SN and temps under performed from what was forecast. Where I live you have to look for a silver lining somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z GFS run up to 1am Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0Z GFS has pretty widespread heavy snows still, and the rain lasts for less. Although the system is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 00z GFS a little south with wave 1.Weaker as well.Looks like just about one continuous event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Well, despite the negative factors such as ratios becoming worse on Sunday as well as the possibility of mixing reaching up to or even north of I-80, it's hard not to like the chances for a band of 6"+ extending to areas a bit south of I-80. The long duration and what should be pretty good ratios early on really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 If this thing is really like 12/19/08, it will nudge north based on the heaviest totals of that storm. It certainly is similar wrt the W-E nature of the snow band(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Hey guys, what do you all think are my chances that my flight into Chicago lands Sunday morning with no delays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 A bit late with this data, but FWIW, here is the 12Z ECMWF Ensemble Mean Accumulated Snowfall through 10 days (240 hrs). Snowfall ratios calculated using the Cobb method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Hey guys, what do you all think are my chances that my flight into Chicago lands Sunday morning with no delays? Could be delayed... I think it'd be worse if you were flying in afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0z GFS ensembles support the OP run, with several actually wetter and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS ensembles support the OP run, with several actually wetter and stronger. This was the consistent signal with GHD II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0z ECMWF is weak and disorganized overall.First wave is weak, and essentially leads right into the second wave, which is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 WPC model discussion PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW REACHING THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z CMC CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY, THE CMC/ECMWF/UKMET ARE WELL CLUSTERED OVER INDIANA AND OHIO, AND THE NAM AND GFS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH HAVING AN OVER-AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, AND THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF is weak and disorganized overall. First wave is weak, and essentially leads right into the second wave, which is a mess. It's not great. But not awful either. Depending on what you're expecting. Euro has the snow stop around Midnight Sunday night. But then another batch develops late Monday night and drops a little more. This is through Monday morning 6 am. Euro has the snow stopping around 11pm Sunday night for Chicago. First is 10:1 and 2nd image is 15:1. So maybe split the difference? You guys know your backyard better than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, L.B. LaForce said: A bit late with this data, but FWIW, here is the 12Z ECMWF Ensemble Mean Accumulated Snowfall through 10 days (240 hrs). Snowfall ratios calculated using the Cobb method. Will not ask for a link. However is this through 240 hours or say 84 hours? That makes a huge difference on how we define that map that you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 NWS gridded forecasts (NDFD) now have about 3-5" of synoptic snow for OH, MI, and IN going up to 00z Monday (Sunday evening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Minnesota Meso said: Will not ask for a link. However is this through 240 hours or say 84 hours? That makes a huge difference on how we define that map that you posted His post said 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 IWX calling for 3-7 inches, not including Monday morning in the point forecast. Wondering if their gonna issue watches this morning or hold off til the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 36 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's not great. But not awful either. Depending on what you're expecting. Euro has the snow stop around Midnight Sunday night. But then another batch develops late Monday night and drops a little more. This is through Monday morning 6 am. Euro has the snow stopping around 11pm Sunday night for Chicago. First is 10:1 and 2nd image is 15:1. So maybe split the difference? You guys know your backyard better than I do. I think something like 12 to 14:1 for an event average is certainly doable for most areas... better early on. That may be tough to pull off in Chicago and other areas near the lake though. Even if the low stays south, you'd still have winds coming off the relatively mild water. I wouldn't be surprised if areas near the lake have a period of 10:1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro snow maps less zoomed in on chicago are always appreciated as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 LOT thinking 7-10 north of 80 with 17:1 ratios at beginning of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 The system precip bands has really changed over the last few days on the GFS but he general snow totals seem much unchanged. Did notice one the NAM there seems to be much more LES enhancement off the southern portion of lake Michigan vs the GFS giving the northern tiers of southern lower quite the boost in snow totals. I guess this could be why its been a northern outlier ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Local WGN met is going with 2-4 Chicago and south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 NWS Chicago advertising 8-12" of snow for areas north of I-80 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, homedis said: NWS Chicago advertising 8-12" of snow for areas north of I-80 now My boy Tim Mcgill going bold with the 2-4 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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