RyanDe680 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, Roon said: 18z NAM didn't budge with the first wave. Sticking to its guns and going North. It's shifted a bit south. The 12z run stopped at the IL/WI border. This 18z run bring snow into N IL while keeping the brunt still north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: I'm know I'm going into land, but 10 days out has 2 feet for N IL. #imby Hey, don't talk too much about your back yard! I learned that the hard way last year haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 DVN talking 17:1 ratios for the first part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 The Sunday-Monday portion has the potential to be a cement mixer around Chicago proper/lakeside. Sfc low passing south would flip winds onshore and water temps are still in the low-mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Still look to be in that precarious zone where rain would likely mix in with snow. Looking for the low to track just a bit further SE, with a little more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Would WFOs in the general consensus area consider winter storm watches? Or are those more of a tomorrow afternoon thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 IWX thinking at this point Northern CWA may stay all snow A brief lull in the active pattern is expected late Friday night through the day Saturday, but focus will shift to the Saturday night-early Monday period for a possible two pronged event for our area. Low level return flow will become established quickly Saturday evening as flow deamplifies and becomes more progressive. Strengthening low level flow and a strong baroclinic zone will focus swath of warm advection snow Saturday night into early Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to the southern extent of this accumulation, but have hedged on even southern locations receiving accumulating snow in this first phase. Overall it appears as though a quick 1 to 3 inch type of accumulation would be possible Saturday night/early Sunday. A brief break in snow coverage/intensity is expected later Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon, but next progressive eastern Pacific wave will be amplifying upstream across the central Plains inducing another round of warm advection-forced snow. Higher chances of snow should persist into Sunday night/early Monday as actual mid/upper level wave tracks across the area. Consensus of model guidance has trended toward the idea of a stronger wave somewhat like old EC guidance was advertising. This stronger solution and more pronounced thermal advection may very well also lead to some precip type concerns and possible transition to rain across the south late Sunday night, and across central portions of forecast area Monday before diminishing. Still plenty of uncertainty how this will unfold this weekend but 36 hour snowfall totals could add up to at least advisory levels across portions of the area, with early indications suggest northern half may be most favorable for higher accumulation. This certainly will be a system to watch over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 39 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Hey, don't talk too much about your back yard! I learned that the hard way last year haha I know! thats why I went there... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Good AFD by LOT. Going with 3-6" for the first "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 37 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Would WFOs in the general consensus area consider winter storm watches? Or are those more of a tomorrow afternoon thing? DVN on this, sounds like they may if higher model agreement occurs, but until then just a HWO. Quote would not be surprised at all to see a small band of 6+ inches. 48 hours out, confidence is not high enough to go with a watch headline at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS is coming north for Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GFS is weaker with the initial wave, then is stronger and further north with the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS is weaker with the initial wave, then is stronger and further north with the main system. Rain into the city on this run, but not before a nice dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Rain into the city on this run, but not before a nice dumping.Would be raining on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS is weaker with the initial wave, then is stronger and further north with the main system. And yet, immediately south of the low, temperatures remain quite marignal-34,35. Also, appears snowfall output still shows heavy snow just ahead of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The little bit of melting after the walloping would probably be a bad thing, since it would probably re freeze on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Would be raining on this... Wherever it rains on top of the snow is going to have one hell of a glacier when it freezes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 There are obvious reasons to be excited about this weekend. However, I'm a bit worried about being very near a razor-sharp southern edge of the first wave of WAA snow. If I can sneak into a few inches from the first wave, it could really be a good few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Warm tongue sticks into Chicago/all of Indiana hr 93-96. Whole winter glacier for those that get some rain on top of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 I know it happens on the east coast but this type of heavy snow to rain scenario seems more unusual in the Midwest, especially something of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Got hosed on that 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 This afternoon's run of the NAM showing a trend a tad further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Tonight's runs should be fun to watch. Really not much to add to what everyone else already has. Look to be riding the southern edge here, so it's going to take several more runs to figure out how things will evolve for this area. Makes it fun though. DVN's thoughts for the two waves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Flying DCA-ORD midday on Saturday and coming back Monday evening. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Flying DCA-ORD midday on Saturday and coming back Monday evening. Looking forward to it. Great timing... should be a good one even if some rain enters the picture. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Great timing... should be a good one even if some rain enters the picture. Enjoy. Thanks. Bought my ticket a few hours ago after the 12z runs. Will see some friends and enjoy the snow. Part 2 looks dicy, but I'll appreciate whatever falls. If I was just chasing and friends weren't part of the calculus, I'd probably go somewhere else. But I love snow in cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looking good for Chicago and north. Off topic question, anyone know the skill scores for the GFS-Parallel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Feeling great about the long duration snow prospects and real deal cold to follow. Hoping this pattern holds straight through new year's. I would really like to avoid rain if possible, but this far east (Southeast MI) may not have a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 0Z NAM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Still snowing back into Iowa at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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