Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Canadian is about the same as last night, has the first wave farther south across middle of Iowa, then solid (but not as strong as 00z) second wave.Indeed.Another sig run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm out of this one. Another QC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Still probably need to wait for the energy to get a shore to really lock it in. However the model consensus for a 2 part system is certainly there and for a wide swath of 6-12" of snow between Saturday night and Monday Afternoon for most areas north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 53 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Would like to see that low a little further south. In N. Indiana we get almost a foot of snow, followed by rain, followed by a little more snow. Plenty of time for things to change, I suppose. Is it too much to ask to remain snow through the whole event?! Gets extremely close to changing to rain even here in the far northwest corner of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 UK finally has the first wave in range, is pretty robust with qpf. The UK is still unimpressed with second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Last four GFS runs showing the clear trend of the slowing down and digging of the trailing/second wave. Thing to watch is how strong it is as it comes ashore the PAC NW on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I love me some SE Ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Here's the precip type/accumulation output from the 12z GFS. There's a pretty good overlap area there that gets a nice shot of both snow and rain, especially in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GEFS are good too. However, several of them are further north/warmer. At least 8 members bring rain into the Chicago area for at least a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks like yet another non-event here for me just north of the Twin Cities. I do wonder if we will ever have a good snow again. Everything these last few years has missed north or south or has been rain instead of snow. Looks like you are all going to get crushed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Compared to yesterday's 12z run, the Euro now has more troughing off the PacNW coast at hr 72 (wave 3), which I'm guessing is a reason why wave 2 no longer is able to amplify as much. Update: It appears the 12z Euro is in between the last two runs, as it does add a modest second wave back in compared to the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Compared to yesterday's 12z run, the Euro now has more troughing off the PacNW coast at hr 72 (wave 3), which I'm guessing is a reason why wave 2 no longer is able to amplify as much. Update: It appears the 12z Euro is in between the last two runs, as it does add a modest second wave back in compared to the 00z. It is. It is better than the 0z run it had last night but not as good as the 12z GFS .50"-.70" liquid across eastern IA into all over northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Looks like mostly rain here! Enjoy it up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 12/19/08 is the leading CIPS analog at 84 hours. But again, going through the full list, it looks like we're going to snow farther south than almost all 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 44 minutes ago, Stormgeek said: Looks like yet another non-event here for me just north of the Twin Cities. I do wonder if we will ever have a good snow again. Everything these last few years has missed north or south or has been rain instead of snow. Looks like you are all going to get crushed though. I hear ya. We have been in a serious screw zone for two years now. My sister in DC has had more snow than us in each of the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Minnesota - All of the cold, none of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Roon said: Minnesota - All of the cold, none of the snow. Unless you are on the I 90 corridor where they have been at or above avg snow the past two winters while we, a stone's throw away, sit at 50-60%. Bummer dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 This should be a pretty widespread/significant snow, but the highest ceiling to me is out in parts of IA/IL. That area looks to get hit pretty good with the initial snows with model indications of some weakening farther east. Then depending on how developed the 2nd part is, they could get another pretty significant hit. The 2nd part coming in weaker would reduce the potential a bit, but I'm just talking if everything were to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I would expect this storm to overperform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches. The depth and stability of the cold air banked up over central Canada spilling out over fresh snow cover from recent storm in ND-nwMN will keep the Pacific wave train from making any moves but it will be strong enough to create strong cyclogenesis over KS-MO by Sunday night. Track of low most likely to be about SPI-CMH-SYR. Something in 980s not improbable, current models look too flabby for the energy peak available on 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 That would sure help me out. I would expect this storm to overperform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12/19/08 is the leading CIPS analog at 84 hours. But again, going through the full list, it looks like we're going to snow farther south than almost all 15. I will NEVER forget that event. I was a senior in high school at that time - definitely interested in weather, so I had been following this event beforehand - and my brother and I did snow removal for people for spending money. My alarm went off at 3:30 AM, like it would when I was anticipating work to do, and my right eye was swollen shut for some reason. Still not sure whether there would be school, we went out and found an accumulation of over 3" of sleet to remove. Absolutely awful! I did a little post mortem, and my area had sat at a sweet (sour?) spot on the mixing line for sleet for the entire night. At least school ended up cancelled. BTW, I live in Florida now after spending almost four years in central Pennsylvania for grad school (and then hanging out for a year after that) but will be up there for Christmas, beginning next Friday or Saturday (depending upon the weather). I can't wait to see what's on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I will NEVER forget that event. I was a senior in high school at that time - definitely interested in weather, so I had been following this event beforehand - and my brother and I did snow removal for people for spending money. My alarm went off at 3:30 AM, like it would when I was anticipating work to do, and my right eye was swollen shut for some reason. Still not sure whether there would be school, we went out and found an accumulation of over 3" of sleet to remove. Absolutely awful! I did a little post mortem, and my area had sat at a sweet (sour?) spot on the mixing line for sleet for the entire night. At least school ended up cancelled. BTW, I live in Florida now after spending almost four years in central Pennsylvania for grad school (and then hanging out for a year after that) but will be up there for Christmas, beginning next Friday or Saturday (depending upon the weather). I can't wait to see what's on the ground! Oh that was the sleet storm! I'm so glad you mentioned that because I still remember that quite well. Wake up expecting to go sledding, and it's all sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Went pretty conservative with my snow map right now. All dependent on that secondary wave Monday. Whatever we can manage to keep by Monday night will only be added to next week, it seems http://addins.wpta21.com/blogs/weather/first-look-moderate-to-significant-snow-accumulation-possible-this-weekend-early-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z NAM didn't budge with the first wave. Sticking to its guns and going North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 The 12z Euro ensemble mean has a surface low around southern Lake Michigan/northwest IN at 96 hours. There must be some north tracks in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z NAM didn't budge with the first wave. Sticking to its guns and going North.It's still the furthest north, but it did take a jump south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Roon said: 18z NAM didn't budge with the first wave. Sticking to its guns and going North. Looks to me like it came a little south. Still def a north outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I'm know I'm going into land, but 10 days out has 2 feet for N IL. #imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 22 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Oh that was the sleet storm! I'm so glad you mentioned that because I still remember that quite well. Wake up expecting to go sledding, and it's all sleet It's the biggest sleet event I remember... I can't remember for sure how that one turned out in western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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