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December 10-12 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

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The GFS took at least a small step toward the 12z Euro.  The energy off the Washington coast is notably stronger and slower to move onshore than previous runs.  Then, the piece of energy that shoots east across the northern plains is weaker while more energy hangs back over the pacnw.  It doesn't quite get to the 12z Euro solution, but it tries.

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looks about right IMBY.  Lock it in.

 

Just need a little cover for the holidays and next weeks bitter early winter stuff..  I'm not getting whiny  with this one or greedy..  I take anything i can get in December.. they have sucked her of late

 

With Lake Michigan at 69* I'm really not going to be greedy.  This is a great setup to combat the steamy waters.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z GFS appears to be handling the upper levels differently.  More energy moving toward the Rockies at 84 hours.  We'll see how different of a solution it ultimately has.

The thing to watch is the trailing/second wave off the PAC NW coast, which comes ashore at 18z Sat on both the GFS run tonight and the 12z Euro run from today. The GFS tonight had it a good deal stronger by 48hrs tonight which translated to a stronger wave that was able to dig and try to amplify after crossing the Rockies. Big step in right direction. The lead wave that gives us snow on Saturday evening was weaker and led to the baroclinic zone displaced further south. 

image.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

looks about right IMBY.  Lock it in.

 

Just need a little cover for the holidays and next weeks bitter early winter stuff..  I'm not getting whiny  with this one or greedy..  I take anything i can get in December.. they have sucked her of late

 

With Lake Michigan at 69* I'm really not going to be greedy.  This is a great setup to combat the steamy waters.

With a negative PNA, I would actually lean towards the stronger, cutting solutions.  I'm not normally too optimistic, and I'm not with the northern wave on this one (looks like that will crap out as it approaches Lake Michigan), but the second wave has real potential.

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