DaveNay Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Nudged north by the looks of it Puts you and me right on the strong southern gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Real sharp cutoff along a galena to Gary ish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Quote 644 FXUS63 KMKX 072051 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 251 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016 ..... .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. This has turned into a very interesting period. The GFS, NAM and the Canadian are all rather consistent in the handling of the mid level trough that hits the Pacific Northwest on Friday, pushes across the northern Rockies and deepens as it reaches the western Great Lakes Saturday night. The associated sfc cyclogenesis is quick, developing a low that tracks over far nrn IL early Sunday morning. The ECMWF has been fairly benign with the trough through last night`s model run, keeping it flatter and moving along at a good clip. However, the new 12z Wed EC has now dramatically changed that scenario. Now, the Euro is doing something similar to the others, but digging that mid level trough even deeper and slowing it down by 18-24hrs. It even goes into a negative tilt as it gets east of us. So, the GFS/NAM/Canadian have our main snow event Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, tapering off quickly Sunday morning. The Euro begins the light snow, well ahead of the main mid level system, on Saturday, then shows a much stronger and more southern sfc cyclogenesis that takes the sfc low over nrn Indiana late Sunday night into Monday morning. The Euro would have snow falling from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Clearly, there is much uncertainty. What is certain is that the details of this forecast will change going froward. Keep an open mind and don`t commit to any solution at this point. The current thought on snow amounts is in the 4 to 6 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Most of the offices seem to be discounting the Euro at the moment. It's hard to toss it when there's ensemble agreement with the op run though.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If you need a laugh, it seems the Weather Channel has bought the Euro, calling for 7-13 inches Thought the same thing when I checked for Detroit. 4-8" and temps popping to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, weathergy said: It's hard to toss it when there's ensemble agreement with the op run though. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Classic GFS/EURO showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Most of the offices seem to be discounting the Euro at the moment. I think it's kind of a wait and see for subsequent runs, starting with the 00z. The massive run to run shift of the operational Euro and the EPS members from 00z last night to 12z today do have me concerned as to their reliability. I'm not discounting anything when it's still fairly far out in model land, though for something 12z Euro like, would like to see at least a bit of a shift that way with the American and Canadian guidance tonight.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Big differences in how the vort max is handled coming out of the Western CONUS. The GEM and Euro basically develop the southern vort max (and have the baroclinic zone further south), whereas the GFS and NAM develop the northern max and are slower/further north with the Plains gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Big differences in how the vort max is handled coming out of the Western CONUS. The GEM and Euro basically develop the southern vort max (and have the baroclinic zone further south), whereas the GFS and NAM develop the northern max and are slower/further north with the Plains gradient. A classic model war. Basically wait for more runs situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nice to see an active thread. This one clearly has some serious potential. It's all about where that baro zone sets up. Despite the current and coming cold, I could see us Chicago posters being a little warm for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Big differences in how the vort max is handled coming out of the Western CONUS. The GEM and Euro basically develop the southern vort max (and have the baroclinic zone further south), whereas the GFS and NAM develop the northern max and are slower/further north with the Plains gradient.This is what I noticed earlier. Which is why I'm totally not discounting the Euro as it could be on to something here.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Nice to have another decent event to track already. By the look of some of these models, the southern edge is gonna cause some headaches for forecasters from various offices. Looks to be a fairly steep drop-off in snowfall amounts. Heaviest snows tend to fall just north of those sharp cutoffs, so whoever gets the heaviest snows may get some gray hairs worrying about that southern edge during the course of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 WWAT What would Alek think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Getting sucked in... After the last 2 winters I've finally learned it doesn't pay to get sucked in early especially when its not your winter so I've been out of model watching. Just curious on the effect the warm waters of LM will have if winds turn their token NE with a cutter? Could the bank clock be drifted in by Lake Enhancement? Or pelted out of commission by sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I don't hardly recognize this board with no Geos, Alek, and Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: I don't hardly recognize this board with no Geos, Alek, and Tim Alek leaving is his own fault. Surprised he's not here to model troll though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Alek knew his **** and how to rile things up. Dam politics He'll be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nice to have another decent event to track already. By the look of some of these models, the southern edge is gonna cause some headaches for forecasters from various offices. Looks to be a fairly steep drop-off in snowfall amounts. Heaviest snows tend to fall just north of those sharp cutoffs, so whoever gets the heaviest snows may get some gray hairs worrying about that southern edge during the course of the event. It'll be close out here. The 18z GFS was not at all encouraging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: It'll be close out here. The 18z GFS was not at all encouraging though. For sure, would like to see some consensus and a wiggle south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The past NW trend scare is now the SE trend..been that way a for at least a few winters now. Alek not posting wagons west. I wouldn't be too worried if you're looking for that nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 34 minutes ago, UMB WX said: WWAT What would Alek think? He's optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: He's optimistic Nice... These kind of storms are right in his forecasting wheelhouse. Geos would have this thread at at least 6 pages I hope he is doing well out west. Miss him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 0Z NAM is roughly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 0z NAM giving some love to MSP. Too bad it's hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z NAM is roughly the same. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian/GFS follow that northerly track or tick further SE again. Of course, like most on here, I'm really anxious to see what the 00z ECMWF run has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 I really don't care about the NAM placement at this point. It having a more significant northern piece is of a little more interest but there's only so much analysis worth doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, WxMatt21 said: Will be interesting to see if the Canadian/GFS follow that northerly track or tick further SE again. Of course, like most on here, I'm really anxious to see what the 00z ECMWF run has in store. Tonight's one of those "Definitely staying up to 1 AM" nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: I really don't care about the NAM placement at this point. It having a more significant northern piece is of a little more interest but there's only so much analysis worth doing. This^ Not to mention the whole storm isn't quite sampled on the 12k or 4k model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said: He's optimistic Is it going to take a GHD redux to get him back here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Is it going to take a GHD redux to get him back here? Trigger Warning that crap. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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