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December 10-12 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

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DTX's legitimate fear of precipitation along the 850mb front cutting off moisture transport ended up coming to fruition after all.

Oh well. This still wasn't an awful storm. The trade off is that the drier nature of the snow, as a result, has led to higher snowfall totals than models progged. 

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Since 2:30PM there has been 4 more inches of snow here. One thing about having had the several inches of lake effect snow yesterday is that it was so light and fluffy that the new snow has compacted it so that now the total on the ground here is still only 12” as it would have been more without the compacting. The temperature is now up to 30° here with light snow still falling

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49 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Just anecdotal, but it seems the King has been blowing chunks this winter so far. It may have abdicate its throne.

The most recent skill scores that I saw still have it in the lead, at least at 500 mb.  I'm not sure how it's scoring with qpf lately but these scores only tell you so much anyway, as being the top model doesn't always mean it will be the best in a smaller scale storm setup in a particular region of the country.

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Hey Alan,

I'm actually only in London until tomorrow and then again briefly later in the week. Basically back in Toronto permanently.

And I wouldn't say I'm outta hibernation just yet. We'll see how it goes.

 

Good to see you again Canuck. Looks like London is getting hit hard by this one.

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2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Should hopefully make it to at least 6" in Toronto. Judging from radar returns there is a lot more snow to come.

Heaviest snow will be moving through the area between now and 3am before it lightens up and tapers off around 6am. 

6" seems like a safe bet atm. 

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12 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Judging from traffic cams, it looks pretty heavy out in the west end and around Oakville. Hopefully headed in my direction.

 

Snow is getting heavier in downtown Toronto. The HRRR has some rain mixing in along the immediate lakeshore but the 4km NAM is all snow. Still looking good for 4-6" in the downtown core.

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15 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

Nothing crazy here.  About 7-8" on the driveway that I just cleared.  Just a heavy frost...........

Just measured 7" and plenty more on the way, this really exceeded my expectations. Made the mistake of running errands today, as is usual for first snowfall everyone in London turned into a complete dumbass behind the wheel and every parking lot was a free-for-all.

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49 minutes ago, IthielZ said:

Picked up 1.5" overnight for a total of 10.5". A rare big December snow in an era of Jan-Feb-Mar storm parades.

Please report to the nws or post to their Facebook page. They like reports and often don't get enough from Wayne County. Sounds like a pretty widespread 9-11 inch snowfall for metro Detroit. DTW finished with 10.7" & mby with 10.9". It has compacted a few inches as milder air moved in but I can't imagine better snowman making weather with such a deep dense blanket. I finished with a liquid equivalent of 1.00", so most model qpf was a bit dry.

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Congrats and nice pics for you guys to the north and east.  Nice to see this storm took care of business in the end.  

 

Regarding model disco, the Euro and UK did the best out this way, as opposed to the higher res guidance.  The GFS/RGEM/NAM were all too wet as well.  It's interesting how different areas look at model performance differently.  

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