Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 10-12 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 694
  • Created
  • Last Reply

SPC says band will pound when it moves east

   Mesoscale Discussion 1877
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois...northern
   Indiana...southern Lower Michigan...and far northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 112342Z - 120345Z

   SUMMARY...Localized snowfall rates up to one inch per hour will
   continue to be possible within a band of snowfall migrating eastward
   across the discussion area this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snowfall has
   organized from northern Illinois northeastward to Lower Michigan,
   with a few observations suggesting snowfall rates up to an inch per
   hour. Satellite imagery and model guidance indicate frontogenetic
   circulations (supported by modest mid-level deformation) are
   promoting this enhanced band of snowfall. While forecast soundings
   suggest a dendritic growth layer no more than 1 km deep, aggregation
   processes (depicted in KLOT Z/ZDR vertical profile data) should
   continue to favor occasional snowfall rates up to one inch per hour.
   Over the next several hours, this band should migrate eastward
   across northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan, and far northwest
   Ohio.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

via DTX: The peak of the winter storm system will impact southeastern Michigan between 7 and 11 PM EST. Snow will become heavy at times during the evening with snowfall rates at approximately 1 inch per hour possible. Snow will taper off after Midnight. Additional snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible bringing total storm accumulations of 8 to 11 inches. Highest amounts are expected south of the I 69 corridor.

I just got done snowblowing just outside of downtown Royal Oak. No official measurement was made, but we are are in line for potentially another 6", I will be very very impressed with this storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finished with 2.8" here.  Probably had a little more than that if I had measured every 6hrs like you're supposed to, but I like to leave the snow be unless there's significant melting issues, etc.  All in all a respectable little event.  At times it looked like it could be another warning event, but just a little too far southwest for this one.  The burst of moderate to heavy snow this afternoon made up for any shortcomings this system had for this area in my book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, IWXwx said:

Just anecdotal, but it seems the King has been blowing chunks this winter so far. It may have abdicate its throne.

It has been bad ever since the upgrade, it is always too dry with cold sector precipitation now. The models that nailed this so far have been the wetter models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol at the Euro on this one. Also measured 7.5" as of an hour ago. Still snowing pretty decently with more to come.



It's been having problems here for awhile. I believe in the forecasting of Hurricane Matthew it had the storm hitting around Miami and is the reason the whole coastline was terrified.

Side note here but in my spotter report CLE asked me so it's just about done in your area right? I replied what are you talking about the radar returns go all the way back to Chicago still and it's a steady moderate snow right now
Link to comment
Share on other sites

probably subjective based on area, but Euro total QPF and drier idea seems pretty accurate here. I'm guessing .3-.4 water will be what we get around these parts. Splitting the difference between the high qpf models and the euro was the right way to go.

also: my 6.1 " call here will be spot on or just below. Good guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...