cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 0z ECMWF continues to have a different solution. Euro hasn't been too good so far this season. Will be interesting to see which global wins out this time. The new Euro is a little more robust with the lead wave this weekend compared to the past few runs, so maybe it's already starting to lean toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Big dog on the 6z GFS. Looks like it is a little faster with onset of snow as well with snow arriving into northern Illinois by late Saturday afternoon/early evening. The previous 12z run had it still back across MN by 0z Saturday evening. Also continue to cherry pick some forecast soundings showing DGZ depths >200mb, more during the first half of the event in the initial band. Ends up with an 8-14" swath from SD/MN on ESE into north central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 alert. With the fairly flat, progressive flow and a 1034ish high sitting over SW Ontario when the system enters the subforum as depicted by the GFS, I wouldn't think that the northern solutions would pan out. I'm speculating that the mixing line will set up near/just north of I 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 If you get the ensembles... how closely did they support the op run at 12z?There was decent ensemble support for the OP at 12z, and once again with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: alert. With the fairly flat, progressive flow and a 1034ish high sitting over SW Ontario when the system enters the subforum as depicted by the GFS, I wouldn't think that the northern solutions would pan out. I'm speculating that the mixing line will set up near/just north of I 70. How far north is my concern for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The 12z GFS stayed consisted, but the GGEM is much more ECMWF-like now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12Z GFS is the definition of spread the wealth, with the sweet spot over the lake effect areas in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro is, umm, interesting. Slower and much deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Would be nice to have some better agreement. I guess the positive aspect is that almost any model solution is spitting out significant snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro is, umm, interesting. Slower and much deeper.Much different and more significant solution.WAA snows initially are weaker and further south. Then it develops a SLP that runs from S. MO to north of IND, finally to near DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is, umm, interesting. Slower and much deeper. Yeah that was something... considering the wild shifts the Euro has been showing I would have to be highly skeptical of this solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Big hit from N-C. IA to Chicago, and on over to Detroit. 1"+ QPF from N-C. IL on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 That run looked a lot like GHD II of 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 S-W-E-E-T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I haven gotten a chance to actually look at the run, but would we expect higher than 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Whole run, but not are if euro is allowed. I'd assume so.... Ratios are higher than 10:1. I'd take it but given the erratic behavior of the upgraded Euro, I'll take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 The JMA is on board with a Euro type solution, so that always adds confidence to the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Essentially full ensemble support for a sig event with the 12z ECMWF ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Within NAM range - and it is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 IWX putting more clout into the GFS/GEM for now A period of fairly strong warm advection should ensue for Saturday afternoon/Saturday night as next upper PV anomaly emerges in the lee of the Rockies. Warm advection snow should develop particularly across northern half of the forecast area by Saturday night with some light to moderate accumulations possible. Consensus guidance still suggests prolonged event into Sunday as next upstream short wave progresses across the area, although medium range models still exhibiting quite a bit of spread and volatility in the details regarding strength/progression of this wave. Have kept precip all snow for Saturday night/Sunday, although outlier 12Z ECMWF would suggest rain/snow issues. ECMWF represents a stronger/slower outlier at this time with more copious moisture transport ahead of this wave, and have opted to put more weight into GEM/GFS blend. This system will need to be watched for possible headlines over the next few days, as several inches of snow accumulation appear to be a strong possibility for at least portions of the forecast area. Some lake effect is possible behind this system. Otherwise, very cold conditions look to be in store middle of next week with strong low level thermal troughing overspreading much of eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 NAM and GFS very similiar. Wondering if the Euro is off its rocker again... Will be another good test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: NAM and GFS very similiar. Wondering if the Euro is off its rocker again... Will be another good test. Actually it's north of the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 27 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Actually it's north of the GFS.. Right but in terms of it being more similar to the GFS or Euro, it's way closer to the GFS. Just like 50 miles farther north, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Most of the offices seem to be discounting the Euro at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z GFS not going to cave by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looks like the GFS is more realistic. I know the Euro tends to love prolonged events, and then usually backs off. Might be in Chicago this weekend and hoping for a big event, but even a few inches would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 If you need a laugh, it seems the Weather Channel has bought the Euro, calling for 7-13 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS not going to cave by the looks of it. Nudged north by the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 18z NAM went further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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