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December 10-12 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

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As Hoosier stated last night, patience will be critical with this one.

The best snows aren't expected to develop for another several hours, so the radar right now can be deceiving.

The shortwave itself driving all of this is still back in the Central Plains. So we definitely have a long ways to go. 

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6 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Northern Indiana NWS has now extended the Winter Storm Warning to include Defiance Henry and Paulding County in NW Ohio through 4 AM Monday.

Mentions 6-9" in those areas. Heavy snow bands continuing to form over Indiana and push in that direction. Curious to see how rain/WAA affects things in NW OH later tonight.

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28 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

The airport has official totals. http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-725374.html  U of M is another reporting station for A2.  It is right next to the river and downtown so usually a little warmer/less snow than the airport I would think.  The last 15 years or so have an average of snowfall of about 58" which is quite decent for SE Michigan.

No liking the recent down tick in snowfall locally with the heavier bands setting up much further North at the moment. Hopefully, a different frontal slope zone lights up later today that is more favorable when WAA becomes much stronger.  Of course, not happy about that dry slot out West either. 

 

 

I am not the least bit worried. This is following evolution of the models fine. In a few hours the dry slot south of us will blossom into heavy precip

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8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am not the least bit worried. This is following evolution of the models fine. In a few hours the dry slot south of us will blossom into heavy precip

DTX also mentioned the potential for snowflake aggregation later today (think muffin-sized flakes at 1"+per hour rates) as the low-level forcing increases.

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Northern Indiana NWS has now extended the Winter Storm Warning to include Defiance Henry and Paulding County in NW Ohio through 4 AM Monday.



Haha yes however it has hit the Cleveland wall. The problems with warnings Toledo metro faces from not being under IWX is awful. Small rant here but the metro area has 600,000 residents while down around Findlay has another 60-70,000 people around it. It would be better to expand IWX to cover these as this would be easily the biggest city in the area
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Interesting tidbit from NWS Northern Indiana...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

Minor update to increase snowfall totals a bit and expand the
warning one tier of counties southward. Increasing 285-290K
isentropic ascent allowing heavier snowfall rates to blossom
across our S/SW counties. This activity will continue to slowly
shift N/NE during the day per RAP and HRRR with moderate snow
continuing in our central CWA for most of the day. Latest 12Z
guidance also showing less northward expansion of warm air this
evening...allowing for more snow and less rain/sleet. Snow ratios
will still be quite low but this trend is enough to warrant
expansion of inherited warning. Some concern that even the White-
Huntington tier of counties may end up with around 8 inches
(especially across the northern sections of those counties) by
this evening given current heavy snow and less mix potential.
However, RAP and HRRR show heavier snow shifting out of these
counties in the next few hours and confidence is not high enough
to issue a warning at this time.

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9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 


Haha yes however it has hit the Cleveland wall. The problems with warnings Toledo metro faces from not being under IWX is awful. Small rant here but the metro area has 600,000 residents while down around Findlay has another 60-70,000 people around it. It would be better to expand IWX to cover these as this would be easily the biggest city in the area

 

000
FXUS61 KCLE 111513
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1013 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016 

No major changes to the forecast for today with this update.
Forecast still looks on track, however somewhat concerned about
the need for an increase in snow amounts across northwest Ohio.
Early morning lull in snowfall is quickly coming to an end and
drier area filling back in on radar in northwest Ohio. Many
surface obs there reporting 3/4 mi. snow, with heavier bands
starting to materialize back in western Indiana. 12Z NAM and
latest HRRR runs bringing these bands through NW OH over the next
few hours, and again cranking some heavier bands through during
the 21Z to 03Z period. Will continue to monitor latest
guidance/observational trends over the next few hours and update
accordingly.
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000
FXUS63 KLOT 111702
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1102 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

.UPDATE...
1100 AM CST

In spite of the fact that the break in the snowfall was longer
than previously expected, we are still expecting moderate, to
occasionally heavy snow, to continue to redevelop over the area
into this afternoon as better larger scale forcing associated with
the main mid-level disturbance overspreads the area. We are
already seeing signs of this, with radar echos beginning to light
up on the radar, and see no reason why this trend will not
continue. Therefore, this event is by no means over. Given that
the morning RAOBs out of DVN and ILX both indicated the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates, some heaver snow rates will
continue to be a possibility this afternoon and into the early
evening hours.

The heaviest snow fall this afternoon and evening looks to impact
much of eastern Illinois and into northwestern Indiana. In these
areas another 4 to 8 inches of wet snow will be possible before
the snow ends this evening. Lighter amounts of snow are still
expected over north central Illinois and over my far southern
counties. While snow amounts in some of the warning area may fail
to reach criteria levels, no changes are planed to the going
headlines at this time.

KJB
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