December 10-12 Potential Snow Event

[Jackstraw]

Of course not expecting anything close to points North.  Have another light band coming through.  Was out earlier and the roads around here are amazingly treacherous.  The light inch that fell covered up some ridiculously smooth ice in the roads and with not much traffic it's very deceiving.  Saw several cars sliding around corners doing 180's, sliding through stop signs at 5mph.  I almost hit a telephone pole trying to stop at no more than 10 mph.  Provably slid 40 or 50 feet.  Can't believe how slick it is for no more than we have.  14 accidents reported here since 8pm.  That's a pile up here in the sticks

 

[homedis]

The radar's filling in a little more in N. IL

[DaveNay]

2 minutes ago, homedis said:

The radar's filling in a little more in N. IL

A bit...

 

[tuanis]

First round of snow throwing complete. About 3" down, a cinch to clear. Got the shed all lit up for the holidays. Looks $$$ with the fresh snow. Best of luck to all over the next 24 hours or so.

[Hoosier]

A little under 3" thus far.

This one definitely requires some patience.

[Jim Martin]

This was from earlier on Saturday Night in downtown Findlay.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

GRR just did the expected and upgraded their counties south of 96 to a warning, citing what's gonna happen later.

[Chicago Storm]

Sitting at 3.0" here.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

GRR just did the expected and upgraded their counties south of 96 to a warning, citing what's gonna happen later.

DTX going winter storm warning 6-10". We already have about 2" of fluffy snow and it's hours before the heavy snow even gets here. 6z qpf ticked up again too. Thinking this has 8-12" potential here. Even if the snow is 10-1 ratio later it's pure fluffy right now, and model qpf is in the 0.74"-1" range from all models now. Two weeks before christmas...a perfect sunday!

[IWXwx]

I picked up 2.4" at 7 AM with a liquid equivalent of .17", a nice 14:1. I expect that ratio drop like a bad habit later.

[n1vek]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX going winter storm warning 6-10". We already have about 2" of fluffy snow and it's hours before the heavy snow even gets here. 6z qpf ticked up again too. Thinking this has 8-12" potential here. Even if the snow is 10-1 ratio later it's pure fluffy right now, and model qpf is in the 0.74"-1" range from all models now. Two weeks before christmas...a perfect sunday!

I'm impressed with the effectiveness of this early snow as well. Encouraged by the wsw update. Might be in for a tasty nice surprise today followed by some serious cold.

I look forward to your pics, Josh.

[Jackstraw]

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

I picked up 2.4" at 7 AM with a liquid equivalent of .17", a nice 14:1. I expect that ratio drop like a bad habit later.

I expect mine to be a 1:1 liquid ratio later

[IWXwx]

2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I expect mine to be a 1:1 liquid ratio later

lol. Yeah, you're probably right. Looks like rain snow line will be somewhere between our locations. I will most likely see some rain mixing in at times.

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, n1vek said:

I'm impressed with the effectiveness of this early snow as well. Encouraged by the wsw update. Might be in for a tasty nice surprise today followed by some serious cold.

I look forward to your pics, Josh.

Thanks, hopefully you take some too

[Baum]

However, it plays out today upgrading to warnings yesterday in Northern IL was not a great call. As of now we have 3 inches of snow in a 12 hr window. Tough to get a read on today's forecast based on the morning discussion. Seems convoluted and vague on details. My unscientific guess of 6.1 inches for my area is looking good if the incoming wave can get us another 2-4 inches this afternoon and evening. See the RPM gives us a decent PM snowfall. Overall, a great start to winter as compared to 2015-2016. Next issue; do I invest in a new snowblower for this season? 

Just shoveled. May not quite be 3",and it's pure powder. Guessing not much liquid in that. Sure, looking like the Euro's low qpf amounts were reasonable and correct. 

[smoof]

Around 0.75" here on the northern fringe so far. That 30dbz band in central michigan is looking really sexy, it's about 30miles sw of me now, I hope it holds together on its way here.

[MikeGold]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX going winter storm warning 6-10". We already have about 2" of fluffy snow and it's hours before the heavy snow even gets here. 6z qpf ticked up again too. Thinking this has 8-12" potential here. Even if the snow is 10-1 ratio later it's pure fluffy right now, and model qpf is in the 0.74"-1" range from all models now. Two weeks before christmas...a perfect sunday!

Just shy of 3" here in South Ann Arbor as of 8 AM EST.   With our location on/near the Glacier ridge and a climatology (http://www.weather.gov/dtx/seasonal_snow ) that suggests Ann Arbor is often the snowiest location in SE Michigan(besides the White Lake area); hoping for a little extra out of this storm.  Is 12" too much to ask?

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

Just shy of 3" here in South Ann Arbor as of 8 AM EST.   With our location on/near the Glacier ridge and a climatology (http://www.weather.gov/dtx/seasonal_snow ) that suggests Ann Arbor is often the snowiest location in SE Michigan(besides the White Lake area); hoping for a little extra out of this storm.  Is 12" too much to ask?

I think 12" is possible. Not sure if this specific storm will have any added boost in glacial ridge or not.

[MikeGold]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think 12" is possible. Not sure if this specific storm will have any added boost in glacial ridge or not.

925 mb will be quite strong this afternoon/evening at 35 knots out of the South which isn't too shabby for Ann Arbor but cloud level winds out of the Southwest doesn't really help any with it being parallel to the ridge. (at least no down sloping )  Orographics can kick in I believe at 25 knots or above especially if oriented perpendicular so maybe a little bump. Certainly I think A2 will do better than the Detroit area. 

 

 

[Jim Martin]

Three inches of snow here in Findlay this morning.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

925 mb will be quite strong this afternoon/evening at 35 knots out of the South which isn't too shabby for Ann Arbor but cloud level winds out of the Southwest doesn't really help any with it being parallel to the ridge. (at least no down sloping )  Orographics can kick in I believe at 25 knots or above especially if oriented perpendicular so maybe a little bump. Certainly I think A2 will do better than the Detroit area. 

 

 

Take those seasonal maps with a grain of salt because they are largely innaccurate. Other than the official numbers, they plugged in coop numbers which include tons of missing data. So basically, the maps are wrong. That said, Ann Arbor does average more snow than Detroit or Flint. Its possible Ann Arbor gets more than Detroit with this storm but I wouldnt say its likely. Ann Arbor typically does better with lake squalls of course, but in this case qpf is very similar at both places, and if anything it looks as if Detroit/far SE MI may get an extra boost this evening with the heaviest band (per simulated radar). This is all splitting hairs though, big snow for all of southern MI today!

[MikeGold]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Take those seasonal maps with a grain of salt because they are largely innaccurate. Other than the official numbers, they plugged in coop numbers which include tons of missing data. So basically, the maps are wrong. That said, Ann Arbor does average more snow than Detroit or Flint. Its possible Ann Arbor gets more than Detroit with this storm but I wouldnt say its likely. Ann Arbor typically does better with lake squalls of course, but in this case qpf is very similar at both places, and if anything it looks as if Detroit/far SE MI may get an extra boost this evening with the heaviest band (per simulated radar). This is all splitting hairs though, big snow for all of southern MI today!

True, but I would point out that the airport where official readings are taken at A2 is just East of the glacier ridge so areas along ridge on the city's West side probably do even better most years. So just to the West side passing NE to near Whitmore Lake to White Lake seems to be the normal prime area.  In this case, the couple of degrees cooler temps in A2 compared to the Detroit area should help out later today with snow ratio's when things warm up a bit.  

[hawkeye_wx]

The storm has not panned out well over here.  I've picked up 2.2 inches from only 0.14" precip.  Some of the models were just way too wet.  All advisories have been dropped.

[DaveNay]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The storm has not panned out well over here.  I've picked up 2.2 inches from only 0.14" precip.  Some of the models were just way too wet.  All advisories have been dropped.

I don't think I had any additional accumulation since my 1.5" measure last night. Some minor drifting since the wind did pick up a little.

[cyclone77]

32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The storm has not panned out well over here.  I've picked up 2.2 inches from only 0.14" precip.  Some of the models were just way too wet.  All advisories have been dropped.

NWS getting some flack this morning on social media.  Two HUGE busts on back to back weekends.  Both events were extremely challenging, and quite unfortunate to have them on back to back events, let alone on the weekends lol.  Last week the HRRR/RAP smoked the globals, and in this event the HRRR/RAP were awful.  Riding the southern edge of the system didn't do the NWS, or any other local forecasters any favors.  

Have been at 1.5" since about 5pm yesterday, and may not add any to that the way radar looks.  Good news is the cold coming later this week will be muted compared to if we had received deep snow cover.  

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

True, but I would point out that the airport where official readings are taken at A2 is just East of the glacier ridge so areas along ridge on the city's West side probably do even better most years. So just to the West side passing NE to near Whitmore Lake to White Lake seems to be the normal prime area.  In this case, the couple of degrees cooler temps in A2 compared to the Detroit area should help out later today with snow ratio's when things warm up a bit.  

The "official" snow at ann arbor is taken at u of m. Is that more west? Temps at airport. Either way, a fun afternoon and evening is on tap!

[DaveNay]

13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Have been at 1.5" since about 5pm yesterday, and may not add any to that the way radar looks.  Good news is the cold coming later this week will be muted compared to if we had received deep snow cover.  

Will it have that much of an effect, or will the high albedo be enough to push the temps low?

[homedis]

3.8" in Northbrook thus far. The forecast might not bust as long as we get 2" or more during the second round

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Will it have that much of an effect, or will the high albedo be enough to push the temps low?

 

I think it would mostly impact the nighttime minimum temp potential.  To get the most out of an arctic air mass you want to have deep/fresh snow cover.  An inch or two of crust vs 6"+ of powder would provide quite a bit of difference in low temps given optimal conditions for radiational cooling.

[MikeGold]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The "official" snow at ann arbor is taken at u of m. Is that more west? Temps at airport. Either way, a fun afternoon and evening is on tap!

The airport has official totals. http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-725374.html  U of M is another reporting station for A2.  It is right next to the river and downtown so usually a little warmer/less snow than the airport I would think.  The last 15 years or so have an average of snowfall of about 58" which is quite decent for SE Michigan.

No liking the recent down tick in snowfall locally with the heavier bands setting up much further North at the moment. Hopefully, a different frontal slope zone lights up later today that is more favorable when WAA becomes much stronger.  Of course, not happy about that dry slot out West either.