cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Pretty much shut off here. Picked up about 1.5". Radar not looking so hot over Iowa, especially compared to what the HRRR has been showing for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Gotta wait for a massive pile up on 94. I hear they dragged a half dozen pre-wrecked cars out onto I65 around Lowell in a sacrifice to the snow gods. (Not really...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Gotta wait for a massive pile up on 94. At least DTX did issue a Winter Storm Watch. And apparently, it was 12z EURO that gave them pause on issuing a Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty much shut off here. Picked up about 1.5". Radar not looking so hot over Iowa, especially compared to what the HRRR has been showing for this time frame. Some snow's been backbuilding the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: At least DTX did issue a Winter Storm Watch. And apparently, it was 12z EURO that gave them pause on issuing a Warning. It should be a warning. NWS shenanigans like that don't even bother me anymore. The absolute most dry of any model for detroit is the 12z euro at 0.60", with most models around 0.75-0.80" and some as high as 0.90". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 IWX's new Aviation discussion says things are still on track, lower levels are saturating as expected. And to the people talking about car crashes causing forecast changes, it's crashes on 131 that make GRR upgrade advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Eyeballing a bit over an inch of fluffy powder thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 32 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep, real different than the warm ground temps with the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Solid SN here as this heavier band moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty much shut off here. Picked up about 1.5". Radar not looking so hot over Iowa, especially compared to what the HRRR has been showing for this time frame. I picked up 1.3 inches from the first batch. It melted down to only 0.06" liquid, so there's very little water in this. Models had at least twice as much precip falling by now, and, as you stated, the snow is not reblossoming over central Iowa as quickly as models predicted. The latest HRRR run only has another 0.15" falling here through 10am Sunday, so the driest models may end up being correct for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Visual... Check out that 17.5 inches of lake enhanced snow over my neck of the woods!!! Hoping it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 New convection seems to be firing up in Western Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 i had 1.1" as of 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: It should be a warning. NWS shenanigans like that don't even bother me anymore. The absolute most dry of any model for detroit is the 12z euro at 0.60", with most models around 0.75-0.80" and some as high as 0.90". Euro's known dry bias plus it's recent lack of reliability should give WFO's pause in bowing down to that model. 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX's new Aviation discussion says things are still on track, lower levels are saturating as expected. And to the people talking about car crashes causing forecast changes, it's crashes on 131 that make GRR upgrade advisories. I get your drift. I was thinking back to the New Years Eve 2014 grinder storm when GRR went with a WWA because it wasn't bad up there but their lowest tier were getting storm conditions and 94 was a disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 0.4" at ORD as of 6pm. That heavier band has since moved in...KORD 110051Z 16004KT 1SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR VV010 M06/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP295 SNINCR 1/1 P0002 T10611072 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty much shut off here. Picked up about 1.5". Radar not looking so hot over Iowa, especially compared to what the HRRR has been showing for this time frame. Nope, looks awful. Though I shouldn't be too bitter, we got a solid inch and a half in DSM with the first wave this morning. It was starting to look like we wouldn't get anything at all as of last night. But I'm afraid out first was our last with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said: Nope, looks awful. Though I shouldn't be too bitter, we got a solid inch and a half in DSM with the first wave this morning. But I'm afraid out first was our last with this system. Majority of new convection firing up in Iowa is in the northern half as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Nope, looks awful. Though I shouldn't be too bitter, we got a solid inch and a half in DSM with the first wave this morning. It was starting to look like we wouldn't get anything at all as of last night. But I'm afraid out first was our last with this system. Yeah the HRRR has been way too robust with the early evening wave over Iowa. It's finally catching on, although still too robust. It's already hacked off 0.3"+ along the southern edge of the precip over western IL in response, and will likely continue to do so. Looks like the UK and Euro are leading the way, unless something changes later tonight. Adjusting final totals for here/QC from 3-5/2-4 down to 1-3 for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Had 1.7" as of 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah the HRRR has been way too robust with the early evening wave over Iowa. It's finally catching on, although still too robust. It's already hacked off 0.3"+ along the southern edge of the precip over western IL in response, and will likely continue to do so. Looks like the UK and Euro are leading the way, unless something changes later tonight. Adjusting final totals for here/QC from 3-5/2-4 down to 1-3 for both. Reminds me of what the HRRR predicted Hurricane Matthew to do (make landfall on the east coast of Florida), which never happened. HRRR is unreliable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1-2 inches down over much of the Chicago metro as of 7:15 the bands seem to be redeveloping some over north central IL it could snow light-moderate almost another 24 hrs if the bands overlap just right 12 inches possible in some locations? would only have to average .4 inches per hour if its snows the next 24 hours if 2 inches is already down as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Earlier I was expecting 5 more inches according to the HRRR and DVN, now I will be lucky if I get 1 more inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 1-2 inches down over much of the Chicago metro as of 7:15 the bands seem to be redeveloping some over north central IL it could snow light-moderate almost another 24 hrs if the bands overlap just right 12 inches possible in some locations? would only have to average .4 inches per hour if its snows the next 24 hours if 2 inches is already down as of now Yeah, definitely blossoming there. Just looking at things again and not seeing any major red flags around here, at least not yet. Farther west out toward cycloneville is a bit more tricky with that southern gradient and all. Some increasing snow farther west in Iowa so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, Natester said: Reminds me of what the HRRR predicted Hurricane Matthew to do (make landfall on the east coast of Florida), which never happened. HRRR is unreliable imo. HRRR did a great job with last weekend's system, so I was hoping it was on the right track with this one as well lol. Alas, not to be so. That's okay though, we had our fun last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1875.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 While things don't look perfect yet on r 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: HRRR did a great job with last weekend's system, so I was hoping it was on the right track with this one as well lol. Alas, not to be so. That's okay though, we had our fun last weekend. Well, I'm watching these radar returns over the past 30 minutes and I'm seeing a bit more organization albeit light snow in Iowa, I still think there's a strong chance for a couple more inches in quad cities and especially Cedar Rapids. If we're REALLY lucky southern edge may clip DSM for another quick half inch or inch. And seriously, that cutoff line through IA on the NOAA Graphical forecast for precip probability looks unbelievably sharp, I just don't think it'll be so abrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016 Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois...far southern Wisconsin...and northwest Indiana Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110059Z - 110700Z SUMMARY... Occasional snowfall rates up to one inch per hour will be possible through the overnight hours across the discussion area. Moderate to perhaps brief heavy snow will persist across the Chicagoland area and expand eastward into northwest Indiana over the next 4-6 hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery indicates multiple bands of snowfall are overspreading northeast Illinois this evening, in response to strengthening warm-air advection from the surface through about 4 km. Recent KLOT and KILX VAD wind profile data illustrate a steadily veering wind profile through this layer, suggesting that isentropic-ascent-induced bands of snowfall should persist into the overnight hours. While there is some uncertainty where the heaviest mesoscale banding could organize, portions of the Chicagoland area will potentially be impacted by periods of heavier snowfall rates (up to an inch per hour) through the overnight. Forecast soundings indeed depict a dendritic growth zone through several kilometers of the mid levels, favorable for higher snow-to-liquid ratios. Over time, as the strongest warm-air advection shifts east tonight, heavier snowfall will subsequently expand eastward into northwest Indiana. ..Picca/Cohen.. 12/11/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Rapidly approaching 3" in Northbrook (~2.7" now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 54 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0.4" at ORD as of 6pm. That heavier band has since moved in... KORD 110051Z 16004KT 1SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR VV010 M06/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP295 SNINCR 1/1 P0002 T10611072 $ Only 0.02" of liquid recorded with that too. There's often some under catch in the gauge when it's snowing, but even with that said it seems this first batch is 20-30:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Seems like 1-2" here by the lake. Heading out near Logan square and main roads are moving fine. Side streets haven't been touched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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