Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Jackpot. Looking good. Still have some nagging concern about the WAA being a little underdone and temps rising to/slightly above freezing ahead of models (especially a place like me in a more urbanized setting) but it's minor in the scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Gotta love last minute changes lol. Wonder what the 18z GFS will show. Surprised at how cold the NAM keeps things compared to previous runs with it being deadset on being a north outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, OHweather said: With a prolonged period of snow and strong isentropic lift and fgen for a few hours in many spots on the nose of the strong low to mid level jet, I think the weak nature of the system itself can be overcome. When you get a prolonged period of snow and some strong lifting mechanisms at times it can add up. If the initial overrunning snow is high ratio that could help too...I haven't looked at any soundings because I'm on my phone at work, so not sure how ratios look. It's a formidable setup for decent amounts, no doubt. That said, I simply don't see this as a strong candidate for an overachiever either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 41 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Light flurries falling now -sn now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: It's a formidable setup for decent amounts, no doubt. That said, I simply don't see this as a strong candidate for an overachiever either. I doubt someone gets some ridiculous total like 15" or 18"...but personally I like some double digits in the corridor I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18z NAM bumped north quite a bit for this area. 12z gave us 8", 18z gives only 5". About an impossible forecast for those of us along the extreme southern gradient. Gonna continue to ride my original 3-5/2-4 for here/QC. Wouldn't be surprised if we only got 2", or 7"+ at this point. Snowing quite nicely right now, with very nice dendrites. Already about a half inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Light flurries at KDPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Very nice dendrite composites with this band. Looks like a snow globe out there. Man, if it could snow like this all night... You guys to the northeast are going to enjoy this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Well, the 18z 3km Parallel Hi-Res NAM, 4km Hi-Res NAM, and NAM12 trending colder with this afternoon's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 No idea what to expect here. 2-8 seems like a fair range. A little surprised it's snowing here right now, lightly, with a temp/dew of 26/15. Anyways, good luck to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 HRRR would seem to support the wet models. Using Kuchera method, already has 6+ down (nice ratios) from around northwest IN and back wnw into northern IL at 12z Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 HRRR would seem to support the wet models. Using Kuchera method, already has 6+ down (nice ratios) from around northwest IN and back wnw into northern IL at 12z Sun.Visual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Very difficult forecast down around LAF. Indy has them at 1-2" but that could end up being considerably underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Made a quick gif of soundings off the 12Z NAM for KDPA from this evening until Monday 1am. Starts off with a saturated column largely at or near the DGZ but then the whole column quickly warms throughout the event and in turn, lowering the SLRs. Using 'max temp in profile' method on bufkit to measure the ratios, the event begins with ~18:1 then steadily decreases to 10:1, which makes sense given DGZ depth and location with time. Using Max Temp in Profile on bufkit, it yields 11.5" for KDPA on that NAM run given ~0.8" of QPF. There also isn't a shocking amount of omega co-located with the DGZ and the DGZ column ends up at ~15kft, the dendrites will break up by the time those dendrites make it down to the sfc with 50kts aloft. Tough forecast given the ratio change throughout the event, but should hopefully end up in double digit snowfall depth by the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Tom Skilling (2mins ago) "Just in--and it's boosted it's snow forecast. I'm talking about the latest WRF 4km snow forecast--and it may still be underplaying the storm system's total snowfall. I also want you to be able to scroll through the RPM's snow forecast through Sunday evening in 3 hour increments. This model run's reintroduced the notion snow may pause in parts of the area in the middle portion of Sunday--but resurge later. This pause is not indicated by the Weather Service's 3 & 4km WRF duo nor on the Service's operation WRF run. Whether the pause occurs or not may be academic. This will have no impact on the system's ultimate snow production. By the way, I'm also throwing in the Weather Service SREF model's 50mb or deeper dendritic growth zone forecast. That sounds complicated--but what it shows is actually pretty direct. If lays out the zone in which the most active snowflake development is apt to take place. Bottom line, snow's coming and we'll have quite an accumulation (8 to 12") before this is all over--and it wouldn't be surprise if some spots see several inches more." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Very difficult forecast down around LAF. Indy has them at 1-2" but that could end up being considerably underdone. Yeah, very tough forecast for areas where the cutoff will be on the south edge. With the way trends are heading could see areas get more than expected near the southern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like precipitation field has drifted south some on the 18z runs. Or am I just seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Passing ORD, -SN with a dusting already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 A little over an inch here. Sharp cutoff to the precip approaching the QC already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Dusting down in Woodstock. Roads coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This could get very interesting down here in Northwest Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 My driveway has a nice dusting on it. It's been snowing lightly for about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ground's covered in Northbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Getting excited! Should be our biggest snowstorm since 2-2-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 According to current radar, the heaviest returns are right over DeKalb county right now. I was just in town and the snow isn't falling very significant at all. With a back edge already between I39 and IA, that doesn't bode well in the short term. Maybe if the hide and seek second wave actually materializes....Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 My parents are in chicago this weekend and my mom is in such a great mood because of spending a sat night downtown at Christmas time in the snow. Looks like a pretty similar amount should fall in chicago and detroit this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, DaveNay said: According to current radar, the heaviest returns are right over DeKalb county right now. I was just in town and the snow isn't falling very significant at all. With a back edge already between I39 and IA, that doesn't bode well in the short term. Maybe if the hide and seek second wave actually materializes.... Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk I wouldn't say it is heavy snow, but it is huge dendrites that are stacking up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 hours ago, Harry Perry said: I'd imagine GRR will upgrade to a WSW for the southern two rows of counties, but wouldn't be completely surprised if they didn't wait it out and see what happens. Gotta wait for a massive pile up on 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Roads are a mess here. Don't even look salted at all. Gonna be a rough night for anyone who has to travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Roads are a mess here. Don't even look salted at all. Gonna be a rough night for anyone who has to travel Yep, real different than the warm ground temps with the first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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