homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'm gonna predict around 9" here in N. Cook County/S. Lake County area (just north of Chicago). Show time soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice to see these juicy even with differences in placement Through 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z ECMWF was similar to the 12z run overall, maybe even slightly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GRR opted for a long Winter Weather Advisory due to the long duration nature of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 LOT goes WWA. Slower snowfall rates and long duration being some of the reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Makes sense, given the weaker and drier trends of the models...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12Z NAM thru 33 hrshttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12Z NAM thru 33 hrshttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpd That looks juicier in some places than the previous NAM for IA/IL? And is this current radar echo also potential evidence of a further SW development that looks more like what was forecast some 24 hours ago as well, a time before models started leaning dry? Forgive me I knew not how to load the image of the radar picture other than that attachment..... strt.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z NAM is coming in a bit south and wetter overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12Z NAM thru 33 hrshttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpd and 48hrs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 31 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and 48hrs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt= It just started snowing in Des Moines and by the looks of this band a solid dusting is on tap for just this morning, while current NOAA forecasts for DSM place DSM at just a 30% chance of snow. NOAA's snowfall graphic looks more accurate at predicting 1-2 inches here through Sunday eve, but bottom line is it's absolutely looking wetter, more south and west which is a sign that most of IA, northern IL and IN are all about to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 32 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and 48hrs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2016121012&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt= The southern cutoff is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, vortex said: The southern cutoff is brutal. Yeah, it's kind of a toss up for areas like me. Literally 15 miles north could see significantly higher amounts than my location at this point it looks like. Hoping for a last minute bump southward. Very nerve-wracking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'm not sure if LOT going for WWA was a good choice, in my opinion (especially for the counties north of I-80). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, homedis said: I'm not sure if LOT going for WWA was a good choice, in my opinion (especially for the counties north of I-80). I was just thinking that, bet they'll be upgraded to a WSW at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I was just thinking that, bet they'll be upgraded to a WSW at some point. The forecast disco laid out a great line of thinking in regards to this. Also allows them to nowcast and upgrade to wsw as required, similar to last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Still thinking 7-9" is not a bad call here. However, if there's no mixing and if temps tomorrow are a shade cooler than progged, may be able to add another inch or two to that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Would like to see euro come in a little wetter. Then I think LOT will upgrade to a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The forecast disco laid out a great line of thinking in regards to this. Also allows them to nowcast and upgrade to wsw as required, similar to last weekend That makes sense- thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 If there's any trend since last night, it's slight southward bumps. And I'm ok with that. I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: If there's any trend since last night, it's slight southward bumps. And I'm ok with that. I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge. Agreed 100%. Nothing worse than rain to end a nice storm. I'll be watching the radar closely tomorrow. I'm planning an extended Jen walk in a state rec area and am wondering if I'll be driving north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z GFS held serve for the most part, and actually came in a bit further south.12z GGEM fairly consistent too, just a bit drier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 We're getting really close to the event so don't get too caught up in those long range forecasting models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 We're getting really close to the event so don't get too caught up in those long range forecasting modelsLol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hmmm...interesting from IWX. Definitely looking likely, especially after this morning's model runs Isentropic lift to pick up tonight and especially toward daybreak Sunday. Isentropic signal should peak in the 12Z-18Z time frame with likely mass convergence/low-mid level fgen response to augment isentropic lift. Given recent trends in 12Z guidance and strength of signal in the 09Z-18Z timeframe, may need to transition a portion of the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning for particularly northern third of the area, and possibly extend winter weather advisory a bit southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 LOT issued WSWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: LOT issued WSWs. Smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 LOT going 8-12 along/north of I-88. Wondering where the heaviest band is going to lay out, with some models suggesting higher precip amounts south/east of Chicago. Temps get more tricky there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, homedis said: Smart move. Interested to see the disco for the rationale. Nothing hugely different in the guidance that would change the overnight decision making logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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