Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 4 km run came in pretty juiced, especially in northeast IL and into parts of MI.3km NAM is a bit drier, but with similar orientation.Both are south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 4 km run came in pretty juiced, especially in northeast IL and into parts of MI. Yeah...It's super wet. Those who stay snow would get pounded. This is 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 3km NAM is a bit drier, but with similar orientation. Both are south of the OP. Keeps the rain out of here though, not even close to approaching MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z GFS is zzzzzz for us. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z GFS is significantly drier overall.Seems like the overall trend is for a drier and weaker event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS is significantly drier overall. Seems like the overall trend is for a drier and weaker event. A bit better here though, drier for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS is significantly drier overall. Seems like the overall trend is for a drier and weaker event. As long as we don't get to ECMWF level, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0Z GFS is still nothing near "ZZZ" for Chicago and anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 As long as we don't get to ECMWF level, haha.Getting closer.That was an especially bad run for the DVN area. Some areas had QPF cut in half compared to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Both the 0z GFS and 0z Nam kept the mixing line well south of the GTA. Though the 0z Nam had more qpf than the 0z GFS, both show amounts of 4-7.5" in the area. At this point I'd say 4" is a safe and preliminary number for the GTA. Its unfortunate most of the posters in Ontario aren't active at the moment or anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Still pretty large differences between the NAM and GFS for northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ehh, final calls: me: 6.6", geos : 9.1", Alek: 2.6", Chicago Storm: 7.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 My final call for CR based on the 18z and 00z runs for the CR area in Iowa is 4.6 inches. Got a gut feeling that this is gonna be a hwy 20 special out here and we'll be on the sideline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z GGEM actually held serve from the 12z run overall, possibly even a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GGEM actually held serve from the 12z run overall, possibly even a bit wetter. Yep, wetter across Illinois and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GGEM actually held serve from the 12z run overall, possibly even a bit wetter. Was just going to post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0Z suite so far gave LOT no reason to change anything .UPDATE... 950 PM CST Evening update: Quick perusal of the new 00Z WRF/4km WRF and GFS through Saturday evening suggest no significant differences from earlier thinking on developing winter storm. In the very near term, did make some tweaks primarily to account for satellite based sky cover trends and for some hourly/min temps where mostly clear conditions had allowed quick drops earlier this evening. Satellite indicates considerable mid-level cloud development across Iowa/southwest Wisconsin over the past few hours which should continue to spread downstream into IL/IN overnight. A few spots such as Rochelle had quickly dropped off to around 10 degrees, but have risen a smidge with increased cloud cover. Made some modest tweaks to hourly and overnight min temp to account for this. Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast at this time. 00Z model data streaming in, and continue to point to a quick west-east development of light snow across the forecast area during the mid-late afternoon hours on Saturday. Current forecast and headlines appear very reasonable into Saturday night, and have made no changes with full suite of new guidance not yet available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Both the 0z GFS and 0z Nam kept the mixing line well south of the GTA. Though the 0z Nam had more qpf than the 0z GFS, both show amounts of 4-7.5" in the area. At this point I'd say 4" is a safe and preliminary number for the GTA. Its unfortunate most of the posters in Ontario aren't active at the moment or anymore. Been following along but I'm actually in Chicago currently and flying out to NYC tomorrow afternoon so tricky situation for me. 5-7" seems like a good call IMBY though. Maybe 4" for downtown TO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 With last weeks system when were the models on track with the actual snow amounts? Or did they ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Gonna ride my 3-5/2-4 here/QC call for now, but I'm a bit nervous with another reduction in precip, and a slightly further north placement of the southern cutoff by some of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, harrisale said: Been following along but I'm actually in Chicago currently and flying out to NYC tomorrow afternoon so tricky situation for me. 5-7" seems like a good call IMBY though. Maybe 4" for downtown TO. Atleast your flight out of Chicago tomorrow won't be affected, so thats good. Stay safe! The GFS/NAM had around 6-8" for the Guelph area. But both have trended colder for the area so mixing shouldn't be an issue. It'll be the first widespread event in the area since April 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, DAFF said: With last weeks system when were the models on track with the actual snow amounts? Or did they ever? HRRR/RAP seemed to be pretty close by the night before. They may have been a tad light with the precip, but the over-achieving LSRs are what really ended up inflating the totals more than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Was just going to post that Does this suggest trend for more snow for Des Moines metro area than the 1 inch currently forecast? Per this map would suggest 3-5 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Does this suggest trend for more snow for Des Moines metro area than the 1 inch currently forecast? Per this map would suggest 3-5 inches now. The other model runs that have come in are drier, so you'd want to see more evidence before going with something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The other model runs that have come in are drier, so you'd want to see more evidence before going with something like that. If only it could just nudge south and west a little bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I think the HRRR will seal the deal on this one tomorrow. I remembered this in the discussion of how it was a over achiever from the few inches forecasted. Liking the 7-8 mark here even with chance the poor temp profiles during the main event. Good thing is the ground has firmed up and cooled off considerably over the last few days which will allow for a good base of snow from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 UK a big step back from the 12z for Iowa/western IL. Cedar Rapids now only gets 6-7mm, and QC down to about 8mm lol. About twice that on the 12z. This storm is doing the opposite the prior system did. Each run seems to get worse for the DVN cwa lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, cyclone77 said: UK a big step back from the 12z for Iowa/western IL. Cedar Rapids now only gets 6-7mm, and QC down to about 8mm lol. About twice that on the 12z. This storm is doing the opposite the prior system did. Each run seems to get worse for the DVN cwa lol. Yep, that stronger second wave was being teased for a day of runs, but hasn't come together. I may have to settle for three inches. It's better than nothing. There will be more, stronger systems ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yep, that stronger second wave was being teased for a day of runs, but hasn't come together. I may have to settle for three inches. It's better than nothing. There will be more, stronger systems ahead. That second wave keeps getting delayed, and seems to wait longer and longer/further east each run to get going. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets shunted all the way into Indiana the way it's been going, and would mean tomorrow's weak lead wave is a one and done affair for IL points west. Honestly wouldn't be surprised to only see an inch or two of fluff from the first wave, followed by a drizzly Sunday. Hope that's not the case, but that's where we're trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 00Z ECMWF/UKMET pretty wet for Northern Indiana, particularly NE, into NW Ohio. The 00z Euro/GFS fairly snowy, too. However, much drier to the west. Not sure what to make of the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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