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December 10-12 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

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Both the 0z GFS and 0z Nam kept the mixing line well south of the GTA. Though the 0z Nam had more qpf than the 0z GFS, both show amounts of 4-7.5" in the area.

At this point I'd say 4" is a safe and preliminary number for the GTA. 

 

Its unfortunate most of the posters in Ontario aren't active at the moment or anymore. 

 

 

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0Z suite so far gave LOT no reason to change anything

.UPDATE...
950 PM CST

Evening update:

Quick perusal of the new 00Z WRF/4km WRF and GFS through Saturday
evening suggest no significant differences from earlier thinking
on developing winter storm. In the very near term, did make some
tweaks primarily to account for satellite based sky cover trends
and for some hourly/min temps where mostly clear conditions had
allowed quick drops earlier this evening. Satellite indicates
considerable mid-level cloud development across Iowa/southwest
Wisconsin over the past few hours which should continue to spread
downstream into IL/IN overnight. A few spots such as Rochelle had
quickly dropped off to around 10 degrees, but have risen a smidge
with increased cloud cover. Made some modest tweaks to hourly and
overnight min temp to account for this. Otherwise no significant
changes to the forecast at this time.

00Z model data streaming in, and continue to point to a quick
west-east development of light snow across the forecast area
during the mid-late afternoon hours on Saturday. Current forecast
and headlines appear very reasonable into Saturday night, and have
made no changes with full suite of new guidance not yet available. 
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26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Both the 0z GFS and 0z Nam kept the mixing line well south of the GTA. Though the 0z Nam had more qpf than the 0z GFS, both show amounts of 4-7.5" in the area.

At this point I'd say 4" is a safe and preliminary number for the GTA. 

 

Its unfortunate most of the posters in Ontario aren't active at the moment or anymore. 

 

 

Been following along but I'm actually in Chicago currently and flying out to NYC tomorrow afternoon so tricky situation for me. 5-7" seems like a good call IMBY though. Maybe 4" for downtown TO. 

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9 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Been following along but I'm actually in Chicago currently and flying out to NYC tomorrow afternoon so tricky situation for me. 5-7" seems like a good call IMBY though. Maybe 4" for downtown TO. 

Atleast your flight out of Chicago tomorrow won't be affected, so thats good. Stay safe! 

The GFS/NAM had around 6-8" for the Guelph area. But both have trended colder for the area so mixing shouldn't be an issue. 

It'll be the first widespread event in the area since April 2016. 

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7 minutes ago, DAFF said:

With last weeks system when were the models on track with the actual snow amounts? Or did they ever?

HRRR/RAP seemed to be pretty close by the night before.  They may have been a tad light with the precip, but the over-achieving LSRs are what really ended up inflating the totals more than forecast.  

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4 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Does this suggest trend for more snow for Des Moines metro area than the 1 inch currently forecast? Per this map would suggest 3-5 inches now.

The other model runs that have come in are drier, so you'd want to see more evidence before going with something like that.

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I think the HRRR will seal the deal on this one tomorrow. I remembered this in the discussion of how it was a over achiever from the few inches forecasted.  Liking the 7-8 mark here even with chance the poor temp profiles during the main event. Good thing is the ground has firmed up and cooled off considerably over the last few days which will allow for a good base of snow from the get go.

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

UK a big step back from the 12z for Iowa/western IL.  Cedar Rapids now only gets 6-7mm, and QC down to about 8mm lol.  About twice that on the 12z.  This storm is doing the opposite the prior system did.  Each run seems to get worse for the DVN cwa lol.  

Yep, that stronger second wave was being teased for a day of runs, but hasn't come together.  I may have to settle for three inches.  It's better than nothing.  There will be more, stronger systems ahead.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yep, that stronger second wave was being teased for a day of runs, but hasn't come together.  I may have to settle for three inches.  It's better than nothing.  There will be more, stronger systems ahead.

That second wave keeps getting delayed, and seems to wait longer and longer/further east each run to get going.  Wouldn't be surprised if it gets shunted all the way into Indiana the way it's been going, and would mean tomorrow's weak lead wave is a one and done affair for IL points west.  Honestly wouldn't be surprised to only see an inch or two of fluff from the first wave, followed by a drizzly Sunday.  Hope that's not the case, but that's where we're trending.

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