geddyweather Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd be concerned in northern IN/southern MI if the LLJ configuration looks like this on Sunday. The NAM has more of a direct punch into those areas while the other models shunt it more toward the OV. If this NAM type solution were to pan out, there would be a pretty good chance that the warming aloft would be underestimated and those areas would change over to mix/rain faster than progged. That's been my concern sitting here in NW Ohio as well. That would put a huge dent in potential snow totals in most of IWX's CWA. Not that they were too high to begin with, but an otherwise nice 3-5" would disappear quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd be concerned in northern IN/southern MI if the LLJ configuration looks like this on Sunday. The NAM has more of a direct punch into those areas while the other models shunt it more toward the OV. If this NAM type solution were to pan out, there would be a pretty good chance that the warming aloft would be underestimated and those areas would change over to mix/rain faster than progged. As of now no models show rain in southern MI, and luckily nam is a northern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 saw no commentary on the 18Z GFS. Did it remain consistent with prior runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: As of now no models show rain in southern MI, and luckily nam is a northern outlier I know, just throwing it out there. Models are often too slow in rapid WAA situations and if you have 50 kts punching in there, it's going to be a challenge to hold the rain/snow line at bay. The RAP/HRRR were useful in the last event that kept trending wetter and I'm hoping they will be good on picking up the temp/precip trends this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baum said: saw no commentary on the 18Z GFS. Did it remain consistent with prior runs? Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baum said: saw no commentary on the 18Z GFS. Did it remain consistent with prior runs? Not much different than the 12z version, except a bit further south with the heavier amounts along the southern edge. EDIT: Ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Thanks, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Was just looking at the 36hr HRRRX, and it shows an extremely sharp cutoff in simulated reflectivity along the southern edge of the precip shield over Iowa @36hrs. Gonna be interesting watching that evolve tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Was just looking at the 36hr HRRRX, and it shows an extremely sharp cutoff in simulated reflectivity along the southern edge of the precip shield over Iowa @36hrs. Gonna be interesting watching that evolve tomorrow night. is that wxbell only? or is there somewhere else I can go to find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: is that wxbell only? or is there somewhere else I can go to find that? You can see it here.. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=full&run_time=09+Dec+2016+-+18Z Only a few runs actually go out 36hrs, like the 18z run for example. EDIT: The wxbell version looks considerably more high-res/detailed with the simulated radar. Has a much sharper line than the noaa site. EDIT2: Here's the wxbell version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Chicago is not my backyard - but I'll take a stab at a forecast since I'll be there - For River North 5-8" storm total, some mixing possible starting late afternoon on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Since these guys are MIA I'll throw out some calls: geos: 11.7 " Alek: 1.2 " washed away by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baum said: Since these guys are MIA I'll throw out some calls: geos: 11.7 " Alek: 1.2 " washed away by rain. Poor Alek In a weird way, this scenario with the surface low looking like it will go north of Chicago arguably is better, or at least no worse for the lakeside areas than if it were passing farther south. The southerly low level flow will bring in some warmer air but at least there's not a fetch off a 40+ degree body of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Other than the 1999 Blizzard, I can't recall any other snowstorm (at least since then) where we managed warning criteria amounts and snow as the only precipitation type with a low track NW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 18z GEFS members were drier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 What's your call? We're within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Going full , 10.5" for DKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This should be a very nice storm for Toledo. Even with possible change to rain, the NWS digital forecast database has 8" of snow and 0.8" of precip for Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like wave 1 on 0z NAM shifted south some especially for IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Other than the 1999 Blizzard, I can't recall any other snowstorm (at least since then) where we managed warning criteria amounts and snow as the only precipitation type with a low track NW of here. Might be a reason why the CIPS analogs are so bearish on snow with southward extent... most of them have it confined fairly far north. I think there are a couple things at play in this case, one being decent antecedent cold air and another is that it's a relatively flat flow with the surface low staying somewhat weak (models still varying on this though). Change either one of those factors and this is probably a much different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 0z NAM is drier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM is drier overall. Not much. Main noticeable thing is its continued northward placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Might be a reason why the CIPS analogs are so bearish on snow with southward extent... most of them have it confined fairly far north. I think there are a couple things at play in this case, one being decent antecedent cold air and another is that it's a relatively flat flow with the surface low staying somewhat weak (models still varying on this though). Change either one of those factors and this is probably a much different outcome. There's also decent low-level forcing with the LLJ at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 here's my Chicago Storm call: 5.2 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not much. Main noticeable thing is its continued northward placement.It's not significant, but it's noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 here's my Chicago Storm call: 5.2 " I'm not even sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'm not sure about the NAM, it's been the most north and has flip flopped on the amount of QPF the most amount of times, that and the WPC didn't put any clout into for it's model discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 4 km run came in pretty juiced, especially in northeast IL and into parts of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 hours ago, Baum said: Since these guys are MIA I'll throw out some calls: geos: 11.7 " Alek: 1.2 " washed away by rain. chalk for those two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Since these guys are MIA I'll throw out some calls: geos: 11.7 " Alek: 1.2 " washed away by rain. You're not even close on the Alek call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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