Hoosier Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Next system of real interest in this fairly progressive regime arrives later this weekend into early next week. Have some general model agreement on there being a system at that time but of course the all important details are tbd. It looks like this system will have a fairly decent moisture feed, so several inches appears quite possible. There will be decent antecedent cold that will have to be scoured out, but warmer risks do exist depending on system evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Systems been showing up for a while now. Hope it doesn't cut through lakes like this runs gfs is showing. Still a week away so plenty of time and other models are showing plenty of cold air to work with. Just hate seeing model runs showing my area in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Came on here to start a thread for this and was 20 mins too late lol 0z GFS and GEM both look solid with the GEM being faster and further north with what could be a fairly nice spread the wealth event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 24 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Came on here to start a thread for this and was 20 mins too late lol 0z GFS and GEM both look solid with the GEM being faster and further north with what could be a fairly nice spread the wealth event That GFS run has something pretty unusual...it has like 6-8" around here before flipping to some rain. I've never really seen that before (snow ending as drizzle, sure). Plenty of time and model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Definitely have my eye on this one. lake squalls in November and a wet wet wet snow the other day, but this is our first LEGIT snow threat. The start of winter looks very active!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Both the 12z GFS and GGEM have a band of 6-10"+ when using better than 10:1. What could possibly go wrong, right? I like these setups though that don't really rely on much phasing... doesn't mean something can't go wrong but the error potential is not as large imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Both the 12z GFS and GGEM have a band of 6-10"+ when using better than 10:1. What could possibly go wrong, right? I like these setups though that don't really rely on much phasing... doesn't mean something can't go wrong but the error potential is not as large imo. Definitely nice not to have drastic run to run swings as the models phase or miss. Should be another nice weekend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I'd be nervous on the southern end of this one with the low going so far north and a south flow over such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 41 minutes ago, OHweather said: I'd be nervous on the southern end of this one with the low going so far north and a south flow over such a large area. Agree. That LLJ means business (at least as currently modeled) so surface-850 mb warming is a problem with southward extent, but perhaps not before a decent front end shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Agree. That LLJ means business (at least as currently modeled) so surface-850 mb warming is a problem with southward extent, but perhaps not before a decent front end shot of snow. Yeah, the decent LLJ and moisture return may allow for a decent thump, and heavy precip, if it occurs, could offset the WAA for a time. For MBY the Euro and Canadian are all snow, though the Euro would be close. Would love to see things trend a bit cooler. With the low going to our north we can't count on the high locking in any cold, it'll all be about the antecedent cold and how long it takes to scour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Let's graphically discuss. I'm better w/ pictures... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Hi everyone, was planning on driving from Morgantown to Cleveland Saturday to see the Browns game and go back sunday night. Dont want to make the trip if there is going to be snow on the roads Sunday, should I be worried or is the time frame more Monday? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, Snowlover33 said: Hi everyone, was planning on driving from Morgantown to Cleveland Saturday to see the Browns game and go back sunday night. Dont want to make the trip if there is going to be snow on the roads Sunday, should I be worried or is the time frame more Monday? Thanks. I'd keep track of the storm, the majority of the snow would be during the day Sunday exiting the area around 0Z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, Snowlover33 said: Hi everyone, was planning on driving from Morgantown to Cleveland Saturday to see the Browns game and go back sunday night. Dont want to make the trip if there is going to be snow on the roads Sunday, should I be worried or is the time frame more Monday? Thanks. Right now it looks like a 3-6" event mostly north of i-80 but it's still 96hrs+ away from starting so more changes will come. I'd say keep your plans for now and keep watching newer model runs over the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I'd be more excited about driving through a snowstorm than watching the Browns play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Significant difference in how the ECMWF handles the system, compared to the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'd be more excited about driving through a snowstorm than watching the Browns play. Yeah no kidding haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Sort of an interesting detail when looking at CIPS analogs from the 12z GFS... almost none had snow as far south as the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Another nice spread the wealth run on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Another nice spread the wealth run on the 00z GFS. I see that, would be a nice solid snowfall for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Not a bad look on the gfs for most of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Another nice spread the wealth run on the 00z GFS. Evolves a bit differently this time, the low is further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I'll take both the GFS and the CMC tonight. both are similar in having a share the wealth system for most of us. GFS has a very wide spread 7-10 and the CMC. is a wide spread 6-9. heavier totals near the lake(SW MI) do to some enhancement I assume. EDIT: I used kuchera, so whether or not ratios actually pan out may or may not add totals. Higher ratios sometimes have a harder time occurring though in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The GGEM is in great agreement with the GFS as it has been further north than the GFS in previous runs. Looks pretty good for someone to get some significant snows out of this at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: Evolves a bit differently this time, the low is further south as well. Yep, which keeps the WAA at bay a bit. I'm nervous about this setup though. Not so much that there wouldn't be any snow here but that rain could make its way into the picture with a more amped system. Have to keep the surface reflection on the weak side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep, which keeps the WAA at bay a bit. I'm nervous about this setup though. Not so much that there wouldn't be any snow here but that rain could make its way into the picture with a more amped system. Have to keep the surface reflection on the weak side. I think we are sitting pretty nicely where we are right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: I think we are sitting pretty nicely where we are right now Agree, cautious optimism. The GEFS has had a few too many stronger/northwest members for my liking but hopefully it loses them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The 0z ECMWF continues to have a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 0z ECMWF continues to have a different solution. If you get the ensembles... how closely did they support the op run at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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