SE short term severe thread

[janetjanet998]

for non outbreak but still interesting days(like today) 

major events will likely have their own thread

 

 

  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1229 PM CST MON DEC 05 2016     AREAS AFFECTED...ALABAMA AND FLORIDA GULF COAST     CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...

WATCH POSSIBLE     VALID 051829Z - 052030Z  

  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT  

 

  SUMMARY...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY   CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS BY 21-23Z...POSSIBLE INCLUDING A SUPERCELL   OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A   WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS   POSSIBILITY.     DISCUSSION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW TURNING   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRAND VALLEY...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC   WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS INCLUDES A   RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA AND   FLORIDA COAST...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD...AND   INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  

 

  WHILE RAIN APPEARS TO BE REINFORCING A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF MOBILE   BAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS   ALREADY CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST. THE LATEST RAPID   REFRESH SUGGESTS FURTHER WARMING AND MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EVEN AS CONVECTION OVERSPREADS THE   REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY   LOW-LEVEL FLOW (INCLUDING 30-40+ KT AT 850 MB) EAST OF A DEVELOPING   SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST.  

 

  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUGGEST THAT   INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH ENLARGING...   CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD LEAD TO A RISK FOR   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY POTENTIAL STRONG (FOR BOUNDARY LAYER   BASED STORMS) ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500   MB FLOW.  

[janetjanet998]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 515   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   110 PM CST MON DEC 5 2016  

 

  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   SOUTHWEST ALABAMA   FLORIDA PANHANDLE   COASTAL WATERS     * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL   800 PM CST.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...   A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

 

  SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE   ASHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING   WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  

[nrgjeff]

SPC may want to take a look at central Florida along the CF today (Tuesday). Winds will be a little veered, but still plenty of speed shear and turning with height. Theta E is rich. Maybe move the Marginal south or even add a Slight?