Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 In the end it might not be thread worthy, but it looks like a legit shot of the first accumulating snow for many across the sub-forum, so why not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Looks like a good 1-2" event right now, could get another inch or two out of it if thermals improve some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Looks like a good 1-2" event right now, could get another inch or two out of it if thermals improve some more. 1-2" seems like a reasonable call for the bulk of LOT. Heavier precip being depicted out west so would not be surprised to see some 3-4" amounts especially in parts of DMX/DVN areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I like 1-3 out here for my area. Main issues being thermal profiles, especially at the surface, that could hinder accumulation. May even switch to rain in the afternoon which is being shown on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: I like 1-3 out here for my area. Main issues being thermal profiles, especially at the surface, that could hinder accumulation. May even switch to rain in the afternoon which is being shown on some models. Yeah, thermals are borderline, so any minor shift could make a difference still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I really just want some flakes out of this system. Not looking for accumulation and not expecting it either, unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Guess this will be a nice distraction to the void now in place later next week. Will be nice to see some flakes fly at least. Looks like 1-3" of slop for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Should be seeing a lot of 32-34 type obs on Sunday where the snow is flying. Not like we are really warm going in but probably going to need some heavier bursts to try to get the paved surfaces coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Small area of .5" qpf near the IL/IA border on the 00z GFS. NAM drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 With these temps, probably 10-1 or a bit less for ratios. Some real slop, but I will take any of the white stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 If temps weren't so marginal and LSRs were a little better this would be a solid advisory event for the DVN cwa. Still could see a good 2-3" of wet snow given 0.3-0.45" qpf on most of the models. Heaviest qpf in the western area, but rain mixing in initially out there. Gonna go with a solid 3" here. Could start as some very light rain or a mix here very briefly, so trees should get caked up good with snow given the light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 What gives? First accumulating snowfall of the season and the board is dead. What happend? Was there a major rift over who was going to get a summer derecho through their neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Models continue to become wetter, with the latest runs going over 0.50" qpf in spots. Despite the qpf, DVN is not optimistic about the ability of the snow to pile up due to lousy boundary layer temp and warm ground. It should be a slop fest. I think if I can get 2 inches it will be a win. Areas to my northeast and east have a better shot at 3+ inches. If only the temp was a few degrees lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The winter is young, and local offices are already in disagreement for tomorrow's event. One news station says Highest snows away from the lake, another says snow changing to rain near the lake, and the NWS says heaviest snow near the lake with lake enhancement. Hah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised to have a sneak attack of more snow and cold on this one in the Detroit area than advertised. Temps are so close a tick down of a degree or two could make all the difference and trends on the past few runs have been promising. Here's to the first thread the needle scenario for the region, time to watch the truth unfold. Hate the lack of fun reads here as of late and the in depth discussions which are so not happening.... Dummies like me are dependent on these conversations !! Here's to the next Wagon's West and Zzzzz which should be © till further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Some differences in the models around here with the foreign models being wetter than the American ones. There will be some dry air to overcome initially but screw it, I'm going bullish. Going to side with the idea of a heavy enough burst to partially overcome the marginal thermal profiles. I'm now thinking 2-3" here on colder surfaces. Farther west out in parts of IA/IL/WI, I'd go 3 to locally 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some differences in the models around here with the foreign models being wetter than the American ones. There will be some dry air to overcome initially but screw it, I'm going bullish. Going to side with the idea of a heavy enough burst to partially overcome the marginal thermal profiles. I'm now thinking 2-3" here on colder surfaces. Farther west out in parts of IA/IL/WI, I'd go 3 to locally 5". Agreed, and it really won't take much for some areas to see more than the forecasted 1-2". A degree could make a pretty big difference. Also models have been trending ever so slightly cooler/wetter with each run, so it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Most of the models seem to be bullseye Cyclone, with 3-5. Meanwhile, for those of us in NE IN and NW OH, thermal profiles aren't favorable for anything more than a sloppy mix. However, the Canadian continues to show surface temps near freezing for the duration over in this area, which would give us a couple of inches. I just became a fan of this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 WWA coming for parts of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 WWA coming for parts of LOT. Not too surprising.Almost always see a headline for the first potential event of the season, even if not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Does anyone know how well the HRRR does in these marginal temp kind of events? I noticed that it is significantly colder in a good chunk of Iowa and Illinois than the 4k NAM tomorrow morning. Edit: It's also at the end of the recent HRRR runs, and I have no idea how much skill it has towards the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 18z Nam has 0.5" around downtown Toronto, 1-1.5" around 401 and 2-3" north of highway 7. Huge gradient in the area, very temperature dependent. Hopefully we can work in some CAD to keep temperatures near marginal for some accumulation. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: WWA coming for parts of LOT. Plus for DVN primarily along and N of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Feeling pretty good about this first little event. Nice to have the first advisory of the season in effect. Some models are dropping over 0.50" of precip over in Iowa. Hawkeye could be in for a good 4-5" even with the marginal BL throughout the event. Still liking 3" for the QCA and here. Wouldn't be surprised to get a little more than that, but the models have shifted a little west with the higher QPF the last day or so. Will be sort of a shock tomorrow morning, as we have yet to see flakes during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 WWA here south of Madison for 3-4 inches. I'd be quite happy with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Looking like a good first snowfall for much of eastern Iowa. It also spreads into western Wisconsin and northwest Illinois by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Nice little over-performer to kick off the season - Two days ago we were talking about rain/snow mix. Board has been unusually quiet though - in years past, even when it was slow to start the season, it seemed like there was more chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 FWIW, temps are currently a hair under most guidance here (GFS 2m temps have a pretty good handle). Sitting at 29 degrees now. I don't want to go too far down the weenie path but the longer we're below freezing, the more the ground will be chilled even if temps get back on track later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 The 00z NAM has upped much of the southeast half of Iowa to >0.50" qpf. In addition, the NAM has cooled and has expanded the 4-5" snowfall to cover my area. It will be interesting to see how well this stuff can accumulate. The timing is certainly ideal for my area as the peak arrives in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 FWIW, HRRR dumps 6+ across East Central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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