dryslot Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 To bad we don't have a stout high over QUE on tuesady, This would get squeezed out under SNE and it would be a nice snowstorm in the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: To bad we don't have a stout high over QUE on tuesady, This would get squeezed out under SNE and it would be a nice snowstorm in the Northeast We do observe a solid positive pressure pattern over central and eastern Ontario leading into that, though. If by "stout" mean something stronger - okay. But 1032 to 1036 should be sufficient, and we see a CAD pattern actually modeled to nose down regardless of guidance source. Again, the question folks is 'what is the thermal layout there'. But, even if the high was very strong that is true. If it were 1040 it may not mean snow given that much initial push above. Point is .. we need more than just a bigger high to be a snow thing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We do observe a solid positive pressure pattern over central and eastern Ontario leading into that, though. If by "stout" mean something stronger - okay. But 1032 to 1036 should be sufficient, and we see a CAD pattern actually modeled to nose down regardless of guidance source. Again, the question folks is 'what is the thermal layout there'. But, even if the high was very strong that is true. If it were 1040 it may not mean snow given that much initial push above. Point is .. we need more than just a bigger high to be a snow thing there. Yeah, The air mass is cold but not arctic by any mean, A stronger cold source with a stronger high would be game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, The air mass is cold but not arctic by any mean, A stronger cold source with a stronger high would be game on the key is getting it cold in the sounding region where snow growth happens... A stronger high with even colder airmass does not guarantee that necessarily - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the key is getting it cold in the sounding region where snow growth happens... A stronger high with even colder airmass does not guarantee that necessarily - But it certainly increases the odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: But it certainly increases the odds the point was, that scenario mid week needs more than a cold high ... it's wrong aloft - you mentioned game on 'all we need' and i'm just trying to get some learning across there... take it how you will - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Starting Friday it's the coastal peeps time to shine as I suspected. No more green grass after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the key is getting it cold in the sounding region where snow growth happens... A stronger high with even colder airmass does not guarantee that necessarily - Decent ice potential for the CAD locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Hey Dryslot ... ha! this Euro run really isn't that far from converting that to a wet snow for elevations.. .It is giving the GFS nod for more secondary/coastal, and that's sort of homogenizing the interior critical thickness depths toward an isothermal look. As is, it's about +1 or +2C I think... but, trend is there. Well see where it goes... This is the type of change that is needed ... hopefully for winter enthusiasts it keeps going - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: So what would you need/what would you want to look for on the guidance to get more cold in the snow growth region? well, it's getting more cold air in the region of the sounding where saturation mixes with on-going UVM. If the air is sufficiently cold in that level, the accretion from vapor to liquid phase state goes to crystal. it's moot point if the lower levels are too warm though, because it can create lots of snow and it'll melt on the way down and pours cold rain ...sleets... icing... Sometimes you can get great growth just above thinnish warm layer and you end up with aggregates that partially melt then refreeze. i call those "chicken nuckles" ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 CAD always over performs in my Central NH location. Have to head to Boston tomorrow and heading back here late afternoon Tuesday. I could see it getting pretty icy up here later Tuesday. Am I right that it seems that the general model trend is for a stronger secondary and better CAD? Euro almost wants to keep the heavier stuff SE. This will just cement our snowpack further.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey Dryslot ... ha! this Euro run really isn't that far from converting that to a wet snow for elevations.. .It is giving the GFS nod for more secondary/coastal, and that's sort of homogenizing the interior critical thickness depths toward an isothermal look. As is, it's about +1 or +2C I think... but, trend is there. Well see where it goes... This is the type of change that is needed ... hopefully for winter enthusiasts it keeps going - I was looking at the 12z Euro when i made the comment, I forget some of you have to wait for the freebies, My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey Dryslot ... ha! this Euro run really isn't that far from converting that to a wet snow for elevations.. .It is giving the GFS nod for more secondary/coastal, and that's sort of homogenizing the interior critical thickness depths toward an isothermal look. As is, it's about +1 or +2C I think... but, trend is there. Well see where it goes... This is the type of change that is needed ... hopefully for winter enthusiasts it keeps going - Some of the forecast soundings are trending that way across ME. Not much temp range up through H7. I think what you are seeing is a manifestation of the brick wall WAA will hit if a secondary as strong as forecast pops in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: CAD always over performs in my Central NH location. Have to head to Boston tomorrow and heading back here late afternoon Tuesday. I could see it getting pretty icy up here later Tuesday. Am I right that it seems that the general model trend is for a stronger secondary and better CAD? Euro almost wants to keep the heavier stuff SE. This will just cement our snowpack further.. Just about exactly the way to put it, yeah ... There's a ways to go, but, the Euro just nodded pretty aggressively in favor of the GFS, which is committing to a secondary much more willingly now. Chicken vs egg perhaps ...but, the CAD is as much a part of that forcing (whether it is cold enough for snow or ice or just chilly rain notwithstanding) as it benefits from having more commitment to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Some of the forecast soundings are trending that way across ME. Not much temp range up through H7. I think what you are seeing is a manifestation of the brick wall WAA will hit if a secondary as strong as forecast pops in the Gulf of Maine. Yeah, and honestly...I tread softly in the company of doey-eyed hopefulls because I don't want to inflame hopes - heh. But, this run really exemplifies for me how marginality can be overcome ... as soon as we see more commitment to secondary, the entire field from NY-VT-NH and even down into northern MA gets suddenly much more uniform in the 850 mb level. Taken further, if the secondary gets THAT much stronger, now your perturbing that level with dynamic punch through and ...I tell you what; what we are describing is a typical March thing actually. Blue bomb is really not that far away from that look - close actually... Heh, we could replace a cold rain vs icing contention with elevation concerns if this trends a tick or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just a time out....Thank you guys. It's amazing to have great Met input in a situation like this. Before the net discussion like this would be impossible. I'll watch the trends closely as I have a steep long dirt road to climb back up after dark Tuesday night... Happy New Year Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: I was looking at the 12z Euro when i made the comment, I forget some of you have to wait for the freebies, My bad. Oh, ha! okay... if that's true than I agree much more out of hand - a colder antecedent high given the amount of secondary that is being depicted would already be a slam dunk here. but, the problem is the fetid nature of the polar air mass as we've ...beaten to death seriously though, if this thing can stay SE and become dominant as the lower tropospheric reflection, we are actually not that far from dynamics overcoming. Also, not to get hopes up but it is something that experience alone tells me it is worth keeping an eye on; sometimes these isothermal "blue jobs" (call it at chilly BJ) look this way in middle ranges and don't really resolve at .+5 C until happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 //but i'd still look for ice as the biggest possibility. if i were internal to office up in OceanWx' world, I would definitely leave a BJ on the table for interior zones (not just mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Snow aside, the 12z euro looks cold for NNE--even at 850 mb. Still looks like a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 EURO looks way east also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Well maybe I should have shut up and stuck with voodoo -NAO. . But I'd hit the EPS and it looks like it tries to bring up the PNA at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Scott how was the EURO in terms of snow potential for Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well maybe I should have shut up and stuck with voodoo -NAO. . But I'd hit the EPS and it looks like it tries to bring up the PNA at the tail end. Looks pretty torchy the last few days there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Man..usually levelheaded Bluewave melting down today in NYC threads with nothing but a great pattern ahead thru the next 15-30 days. Though admittedly NYC on south is on the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Nice to see the EPS cutter d10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Wow CMC brings a ton of snow to SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Models showing a transient +PNA ridge during the day 6-10 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 It looks to me like NNE continues to do well while SNE is back and forth after a solid 5-7 days starting Thursday/Friday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: It looks to me like NNE continues to do well while SNE is back and forth after a solid 5-7 days starting Thursday/Friday next week. It may be like that until after January 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: It looks to me like NNE continues to do well while SNE is back and forth after a solid 5-7 days starting Thursday/Friday next week. Fugly EPS 10 to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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