MJO812 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro brings back the 1st wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro/CMC and to a lesser extent GFS on board. Happy New Year everyone! Fun times begin for many of us late this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I'm skeptical.....but this winter has two more weeks to prove me wrong....please oh please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Warning level on the Euro. Please lala lock that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Deep deep winter weekend on the Euro following the snow, below zero temps and wind chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 EPS support for a Miller B Maine foothills Mts snow storm in 3 days also growing support for a SNE snow event in 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Snow Friday coming Ice storm ORH north..gas up the genny's Gonna be a fun week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 And BOX has no AFD out and partly sunny Fri-Sun lol.. wonder if they were drinking thru the night and missed every model and ensembles showing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Of course really early, but from what I can gather now, it appears the end of the week event is really one for eastern SNE and NH/ME. Hopefully it will evolve for us in western areas. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And BOX has no AFD out and partly sunny Fri-Sun lol GYX's AFD includes this: Another weak system may bring some snow to the area toward the end of the week. and then later on it includes this: Will have to watch for another snow eventcome Friday-Saturday timeframe. I'm be heading up there on Friday. Hopefully ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Gyx has a heavy rain event Tuesday night with snow melt and flooding, and not a lot of ice Monday night. Close the shades here and pray for the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Gyx has a heavy rain event Tuesday night with snow melt and flooding, and not a lot of ice Monday night. Close the shades here and pray for the pack Euros got a secondary going over the cape, don't think you'll have to worry about major pack loss with that setup. You should be left with a nice glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Euros got a secondary going over the cape, don't think you'll have to worry about major pack loss with that setup. You should be left with a nice glacier Yeah there's no massive melt off. Not happening with that track. Airmass is complete trash so plenty of cold rain after probably some icing, but it's a cold rain in the 30s that mostly adds meat to the pack rather than melt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Yeah...the GFS has the 2ndry too. I suspect I'll still have 10-12" here after it freezes back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 #Manpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...the GFS has the 2ndry too. I suspect I'll still have 10-12" here after it freezes back up. How much Otg now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...the GFS has the 2ndry too. I suspect I'll still have 10-12" here after it freezes back up. You guys are all saying the same thing, that's good. Gonna be sad to see rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You guys are all saying the same thing, that's good. Gonna be sad to see rain though. Safe to say there's never been a winter ever where NH hasn't seen rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 EPS and GEFS are a bit different. 06z GEFS ends with a -NAO (which I don't buy). EPS looks like it tries to rebuild heights in the PNA region after dropping a bit at the end of the run. Either way, looks favorable I think for many areas. Hopefully it does not break down or change much going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: #Manpack. You don't want to know what that hashtag leads to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: You don't want to know what that hashtag leads to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 So what's the deal--too much celebrating at BOX to update the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 mmm, evidenced two days ago ... warm intrusion unlikely with the mid week shinanigans ... no shocker that as we inch closer, that's ever more illustrated in the guidance' then it was painfully obviously so back then. but, i can also see why Friday may not happen at this point, certainly ...not along the original design. first of all, the original conception for late week was more of a broad synoptic overrunning. that aspect is gone. it could return but has not shown signs of doing so. the trough is getting ejected too fast for the overrunning to set up now. meanwhile, some of the guidance were nestling a more important important actual wave of low pressure amidst all that ... those being the GGEM and Euro. ... yeeeeah, okay - there could still be a wave ..., but, there is a more classical limitation (at this time and depiction) for getting it to be more than pancaked and gasping. that being that tuesday and wednesday are spatial-temporally too close. The moisture along with the mid week ordeal will pull away leaving a dearth of effective thermodynamics to work with. so even if that trough ejected with enough mechanical power to kink a flow that's already moving along at ludicrous speed... it probably would result in more of a windy dim sun flurry fest. the short version of all this is that the flow's completely morphed compared to that look two days ago.. no overrunning for one; that wave for next friday becomes challenged by the mid week one happening first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm pleased with Dec. This was a winter month. I had that in my winter forecast. While others torched and snowless Dec..I thought this month would feature adequate snow and closer to normal temps. BDL and ORH both AN in snowfall. BOS and PVD BN , but not by a lot. I had ~13 inches this month. Hoping to add a dusting -1" tonight. We had cold snaps...and didn't have to wear shorts at all. Thanksgiving is 5-8 days before Dec..it's certainly reasonable to expect colder, wintry conditions sometimes Yep, totally reasonable to expect wintry conditions 5 to 8 days before you average around 42 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: You don't want to know what that hashtag leads to Post some images to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Year, question....Based on the snow we have gotten this season so far, which model has been the most accurate if that is easy to answer? GFS,EURO etc. Or maybe i'm trying to say, which model scoped it out all the way to the end? 38F, wind gusting to 15mph, don't want to loose my snowpack, gosh i'm praying for cold/snow this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post some images to show. and paste Scott's face into the best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: and paste Scott's face into the best ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm, evidenced two days ago ... warm intrusion unlikely with the mid week shinanigans ... no shocker that as we inch closer, that's ever more illustrated in the guidance' then it was painfully obviously so back then. but, i can also see why Friday may not happen at this point, certainly ...not along the original design. first of all, the original conception for late week was more of a broad synoptic overrunning. that aspect is gone. it could return but has not shown signs of doing so. the trough is getting ejected too fast for the overrunning to set up now. meanwhile, some of the guidance were nestling a more important important actual wave of low pressure amidst all that ... those being the GGEM and Euro. ... yeeeeah, okay - there could still be a wave ..., but, there is a more classical limitation (at this time and depiction) for getting it to be more than pancaked and gasping. that being that tuesday and wednesday are spatial-temporally too close. The moisture along with the mid week ordeal will pull away leaving a dearth of effective thermodynamics to work with. so even if that trough ejected with enough mechanical power to kink a flow that's already moving along at ludicrous speed... it probably would result in more of a windy dim sun flurry fest. the short version of all this is that the flow's completely morphed compared to that look two days ago.. no overrunning for one; that wave for next friday becomes challenged by the mid week one happening first. I am no expert at all but this post seems to make a lot of sense given what has been said for the past month or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: EPS and GEFS are a bit different. 06z GEFS ends with a -NAO (which I don't buy). EPS looks like it tries to rebuild heights in the PNA region after dropping a bit at the end of the run. Either way, looks favorable I think for many areas. Hopefully it does not break down or change much going forward. Didn't you say you were starting to buy it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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