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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

yeah this week's (mid) thingy has never been about snow ... not realistically anyway.

things could still modulate that way ...somehow, but not likely.

again, for reasons i and assuredly others have outlined, it's an ice or cold mist.

But, for those sporting a meager snow pack that really invest purpose to life out of that sort of thing ... I don't believe that primary passing west of New England means flooding warmth to Maine this time.   Not with that lead side polar high up there.  Christ, there's visible 'denting' (CAD) in the PP; what part of New England's history leads you to believe that means we warm sector?

...like ever in that situation??

anyway, not that any says we will per se.  But, the question for whether we get into a ice storm or any icing for that matter, that will come down to particulars that may or may not be modeled correctly right now.  Seeing the Euro get more 'denting' with the 850 mb 0C Isotherm for me is a red flag not to pull the plug on ice potential here.  The dew point temperatures modeled appear to be -5 to -9C over much of Maine on Tuesday morning, and that high is nosing down from that region. I dunno - I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

It's more like at this point that we wind up with 35 F mist and with a wave moving out under neath us, but given to the fact that most guidance has a some dpva rippling into the MA region out of the OV lends some support to the idea of a stronger wave than just a thermally induced inflection - it's all related.. get more drain, you got more concern.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah this week's (mid) thingy has never been about snow ... not realistically anyway.

things could still modulate that way ...somehow, but not likely.

again, for reasons i and assuredly others have outlined, it's an ice or cold mist.

But, for those sporting a meager snow pack that really invest purpose to life out of that sort of thing ... I don't believe that primary passing west of New England means flooding warmth to Maine this time.   Not with that lead side polar high up there.  Christ, there's visible 'denting' (CAD) in the PP; what part of New England's history leads you to believe that means we warm sector?

...like ever in that situation??

anyway, not that any says we will per se.  But, the question for whether we get into a ice storm or any icing for that matter, that will come down to particulars that may or may not be modeled correctly right now.  Seeing the Euro get more 'denting' with the 850 mb 0C Isotherm for me is a red flag not to pull the plug on ice potential here.  The dew point temperatures modeled appear to be -5 to -9C over much of Maine on Tuesday morning, and that high is nosing down from that region. I dunno - I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

It's more like at this point that we wind up with 35 F mist and with a wave moving out under neath us, but given to the fact that most guidance has a some dpva rippling into the MA region out of the OV lends some support to the idea of a stronger wave than just a thermally induced inflection - it's all related.. get more drain, you got more concern.

Red flag I noticed today as well. Strong CAD signal.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah it's felt normal if you're anyone but Kevin who expects it to lock in before Thanksgiving despite it never happening in his 44 years...

It did in the Merrimack Valley region in 1995 ... just sayn'.  

I think I remember one other year in my personal rolladex of experiences when I was adolescent in western lower Michigan..  We had one year where we started getting bombed by lake effect real early and it lasted the way... maybe 1981? er .  Cold year in the Lakes... actually, there were a lot of cold winters there from 76' through 81'.

anyway, we got a sleet/snow event like on the 13th of Novie in 1995' and never so bear ground until the turbo thaw of late January early in '96.

Otherwise, no that's not a very large frequency based on 45 years is it -

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It did in the Merrimack Valley region in 1995 ... just sayn'.  

I think I remember one other year in my personal rolladex of experiences when I was adolescent in western lower Michigan..  We had one year where we started getting bombed by lake effect real early and it lasted the way... maybe 1981? er .  Cold year in the Lakes... actually, there were a lot of cold winters there from 76' through 81'.

anyway, we got a sleet/snow event like on the 13th of Novie in 1995' and never so bear ground until the turbo thaw of late January early in '96.

Otherwise, no that's not a very large frequency based on 45 years is it -

 

No it didn't.  Did you forget the big melt off in January and again in February?   That disqualifies it. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah it's felt normal if you're anyone but Kevin who expects it to lock in before Thanksgiving despite it never happening in his 44 years...

I'm pleased with Dec. This was a  winter month. I had that in my winter forecast. While others torched and snowless Dec..I thought this month would feature adequate snow and closer to normal temps. BDL and ORH both AN in snowfall. BOS and PVD BN , but not by a lot. I had ~13 inches this month. Hoping to add a dusting -1" tonight.

We had cold snaps...and didn't have to wear shorts at all. 

Thanksgiving is 5-8 days before Dec..it's certainly reasonable to expect colder, wintry conditions sometimes

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No it didn't.  Did you forget the big melt off in January and again in February?   That disqualifies it. 

Huh, what do you mean, "no it didn't"

no it didn't what?

It started snowing in mid November, prior to Thanks Giving, and stayed snow covered until the big thaw in late January - just like I typed...

maybe we have different impression of what "locking in" means... but for me, that qualifies.

If memory serves SW zones weren't as lucky on the first event in November, but they caught up and were cold through xmas into the turn of the new year, too.

Yes it didid! 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'm pleased with Dec. This was a  winter month. I had that in my winter forecast. While others torched and snowless Dec..I thought this month would feature adequate snow and closer to normal temps. BDL and ORH both AN in snowfall. BOS and PVD BN , but not by a lot. I had ~13 inches this month. Hoping to add a dusting -1" tonight.

We had cold snaps...and didn't have to wear shorts at all. 

Thanksgiving is 5-8 days before Dec.. sit's certainly reasonable to expect colder, wintry conditions sometimes

 

But we didn't have a lot of snow cover days vs what will transpire most likely in the next 60 days.  I thnk that's my point.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh, what do you mean, "no it didn't"

no it didn't what?

It started snowing in mid November, prior to Thanks Giving, and stayed snow covered until the big thaw in late January - just like I typed...

maybe we have different impression of what "locking in" means... but for me, that qualifies.  

The thaw was actually mid January and it lasted nearly 2 weeks.

 

1993-94 was more solid to my memory but snow didn't get laid down until right after Xmas.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But we didn't have a lot of snow cover days vs what will transpire most likely in the next 60 days.  I thnk that's my point.

Well that I agree with. Every time it snowed..it was gone faster than your undies on prom night.

The longest cover I had here was the last 3 days. Thur-Sat. My pack fetish suffered..but at least it snowed

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It did in the Merrimack Valley region in 1995 ... just sayn'.  

I think I remember one other year in my personal rolladex of experiences when I was adolescent in western lower Michigan..  We had one year where we started getting bombed by lake effect real early and it lasted the way... maybe 1981? er .  Cold year in the Lakes... actually, there were a lot of cold winters there from 76' through 81'.

anyway, we got a sleet/snow event like on the 13th of Novie in 1995' and never so bear ground until the turbo thaw of late January early in '96.

Otherwise, no that's not a very large frequency based on 45 years is it -

 

I think 81 was like that here too. A couple of 3"-6" per week punctuated by regular 8"-12" type storms.  I was in 8th grade at the time an we lived way out in the country. You could snowshoe over our electric fence and I think that was the winter that snowlides blocked off VT RT14 in Williamstown/Brookfield near where we lived. 

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