MJO812 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The Friday deal is gone on the 00z GFS.... late weekend system is way South. Great spot this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 CMC still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC still has it. The Friday deal is basically nothing... except maybe an inch in far SE areas. It does have the weekend system though..... looks good for Boston Providence Southeast for high end advisory. hopefully we can get something in that Friday to Monday period to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The Friday deal is basically nothing... except maybe an inch in far SE areas. It does have the weekend system though..... looks good for Boston Providence Southeast for high end advisory. hopefully we can get something in that Friday to Monday period to work out Don't concentrate on the ops this far out. It's still in clown range. Ensembles look ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 yea, youll drive your emotions schizo looking at specific details of op runs. upper air flow up north, check, cold, check, shortwaves abound, check. now we wait holding our rabbits foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 NAM,RGEM,GFS all continue with 1-2 inches tonight in hills of SNE. That's like 4-5 runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 BOX has no mention of accumulation in my ZFP, 1" in the p/c. GYX has 1-3" for me there. Here are BOX's most likely and highest potential maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Plenty of EPS and ensemble support for the end of wee/weekend storm. This is more typical when we start to get blocking were models will suppress stuff and then slowly bring it back as you get closer . SE ridge ain't going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Plenty of EPS and ensemble support for the end of wee/weekend storm. This is more typical when we start to get blocking were models will suppress stuff and then slowly bring it back as you get closer . SE ridge ain't going away. Agree Always happens with big storms.Show it in the long range then lose it and then bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Agree Always happens with big storms.Show it in the long range then lose it and then bring it back. That said..I don't see this being a big storm..More likely is 1 or 2 weaker waves..The first one might be snow to ice..the second would be snow..This is for SNE I'm speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That said..I don't see this being a big storm..More likely is 1 or 2 weaker waves..The first one might be snow to ice..the second would be snow..This is for SNE I'm speaking. Possible -Pna might really hurt our area in regards to a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Possible -Pna might really hurt our area in regards to a big storm. I'll take a nice overrunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I hate overrunning events, snow to rain is never appetizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The models are playing around with the ULL in CA. The 00z runs retrograde it which causes more troughing in the east, instead of a SE ridge and assoc low pressure. I wouldn't be shocked if it changed again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 A little shift in the trough out west means everything. hr 138 Hr 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A little shift in the trough out west means everything. hr 138 Hr 126 Just a smidge of a difference. What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Seems to be one of those cycles we run thru where 00z takes wintry pattern away and 12z are Ginx Gone Wild where everyone gets excited and starts the Leon talk. Wonder why this always happens in pattern changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Just a smidge of a difference. What model is that? European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems to be one of those cycles we run thru where 00z takes wintry pattern away and 12z are Ginx Gone Wild where everyone gets excited and starts the Leon talk. Wonder why this always happens in pattern changes? It could be correct. We don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It could be correct. We don't know yet. What could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What could? Cold and dry solution. Too early to know. It could also revert back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Cold and dry solution. Too early to know. It could also revert back. Oh I thought you meant no pattern change to cold and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I thought you meant no pattern change to cold and stormy Who says it will be cold and stormy? You need to be careful with your words. Nobody knows the details. I do think it offers chances....but we don't know how many or what kind of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I think between hr 96 and hr 110 we're looking at some snow. When that 500 mb low cuts off in eastern Ontario the baroclinic zone slows to a favorable position for cyclogenesis southeast of our region. There is good agreement with this on the ensembles. Hypothetically, as my base case, the potential would result in a quick hitting moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Ensembles are not in unison, expected at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Weenies in NYC freaking out over what they perceive to be a torch pattern second week of Jan lol. Even though ENS do not show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z RGEM http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z RGEM http:// That would be fun. I think this model came closest to how the storm on Thursday played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Since no one is talking about it, is it safe to assume that the potential icing Monday night is a bunch of meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm sure this 12z operational GFS presently churning off the Crays will go out of its way to thwart what I'm about to say one way or the other... but, I don't see snow so much as a mix/ice, as the best expression winter has to offer over the next 5 days. ...unless we count 37 F mist ... Primary impetus for that is the timing/modeled (multiple guidance type consistency...) polar high arming and/or node situated N of Maine initially... The handling of that feature ...as to how slow or fast it bodily moves off that ~ lat/lon toward the east, as the flow aloft freshens from the SW and flows initially normal to it's location ...is of obviously paramount importance. Right now and recently in the runs it is lagged just enough to offer typical BL resistance issues/ageostrophic wall and preventing low level warm intrusion. Slam dunk look for that sort of thing actually. I mean ...we're also into the time of year when climatology argues cold removal is almost always correcting slower. Any mid range warm intrusions typically become less in verification as typical error. Code for ... wouldn't shock me if the warm never gets N of LI in that look. But, while all that is happening, the sounding are f'ed for snow, period. 850s end up wafting to +5 C all the way to Concord NH ... What does that leave us... actually, the charts haven't really wavered much on that overall evolution. Barring a crystal ball telling us that something erratic and unexpected happens to alter, I feel better than median confidence for triple point with a wave or two or perhaps a couple splitting seaward under our latitude. Whether the typical ageostrophy and so forth in the interior has it as 30 to 33 F limb sagger or 35 to 41 F mist bather result ...neither changes the perception (at this time) in my mind that the interior stays on the chilly side with the mix-smell of cold water and chimney smoke through that synoptic evolution. Change the lower tropospheric PP ...? Sure, then we'll talk. Having said all that... now I have qualify it with one small little but real concern. At 72-90 hours or so, there is a small amount of DPVA arcing through the OV. I'm not entirely confident that won't change the land-scape of that M/A wave handling as we closer to the total translation of mid week events. More than anything ... I think it just enhances that lead M/A wave even more and that helps to hold in some of that drain in the interior. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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