Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 My rule of thumb is if it looks weird, don't believe it. My guess is that when the individual ensemble members come out later, they will be all over the map. Both with position and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Epic Norlun on the GFS on the 15th Usually the epic middle finger for most but its in clown range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, Hazey said: My rule of thumb is if it looks weird, don't believe it. My guess is that when the individual ensemble members come out later, they will be all over the map. Both with position and timing. Most likely...guidance will probably have trouble handling the details of a fast flow with multiple shortwaves embedded. I think the chance of some type of wintry event is getting pretty high, but the exact timing and details are below average confidence at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Usually the epic middle finger for most but its in clown range Oh For Sure!! Chasing ghosts with those most definitely. Just another whacky solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 nah...there's nothing wrong with this operational gfs's solution relative to what this sort of pattern regime should yield... (if one's expecations are just... you wouldn't grouse over 'flatter' and weak sauce..) it starts light steady flurries and snow ...real (probably) holiday hearken look out of doors, ...at around 108 hours or so and would continue for 1-3" probably. i would also caution folks that this pattern will also bias timing error on the nearer sides. contrasting, when the flow is meridional in structure, systems tend to get rushed? this is the opposite of that. not talking days earlier or anything - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looks like something juicy in deeper clown range on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GFS,as with other guidance, has been struggling lately but the typical theme has been from yay to yawn. Don't see that changing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Looks like something juicy in deeper clown range on GFS. Tippy Temp Gradient Tantalizing Tickler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Tippy Temp Gradient Tantalizing Tickler. I'm squatting so it reaches me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The TTG effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Ole man winter seems refreshed after a year off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Epic. Cool to look at, but probably won't play out that way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 One thing to look for is how the position of the high trends...or the confluence ahead of the system. If we can trend that a bit NW more toward N ME, then that will help on two fronts...it will assist in locking in the low level cold better and it will also assist in aiding frontogenetic forcing as the isentropic lift occurs from the SW...so that would be one thing to root for if you are trying to maximize the snow out of this. This seemed a little more relevant to this thread than the overall discussion. Despite what QPF may look like, the signal for a decent f-gen band thanks to initial WAA is not bad on the 12z GFS. So if we can trend the high in the right position that should only improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Very wintry GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Usually the epic middle finger for most but its in clown range 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh For Sure!! Chasing ghosts with those most definitely. Just another whacky solution. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very wintry GFS run And cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GFS produced 3" of snow on the backside of the 11-12th storm over CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like something juicy in deeper clown range on GFS. Your mans setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 First legit snow threat for a lot of people will be this Sunday CMC shows a SECS for many people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: First legit snow threat for a lot of people will be this Sunday CMC shows a SECS for many people CMC has never met a wave it doesn't try to amp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z coolwx.com soundings for the GFS showed about 5" of snow and .3" of rain. Can't wait to see our first accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: CMC has never met a wave it doesn't try to amp up GFS was close We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 They are close and in sync for a five day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 What a weenie CMC run.... gives warning level snowfall for the Monday deal away from the immediate coast... and drops well over a foot by next Saturday in those same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: CMC has never met a wave it doesn't try to amp up Neither has the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 I'd hold off on believing the GGEM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GEFS seem to hint at two waves too. Curious what the member distribution has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: First legit snow threat for a lot of people will be this Sunday CMC shows a SECS for many people You mean Sunday night and Monday. GFS too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Seeing the grinch period is right on track per the GFS. Lock it up with thongs and wife beaters on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 GEFS looks nice imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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